‘Now, We See The Violence …

… Inherent In the System’

It may as well be a Monty Python skit.

The number of opinions forecasts, pontifications and gesticulations have reached levels beyond the absurd.

Everybody’s important and has some intellectual and/or philosophical missive to promulgate.

We have great levels of insight like the selected items below. As promised, these comments were taken from the article linked in the last post.

“I don’t need to pay some 78 year old to hold 1/2 my money in cash”

“What a joke. We’re heading for multi-year blow-off top”

“78 year old fund manager loses his azz … markets going nowhere but up”

“Parabolic increase to nosebleed levels and an epic explosion 3 years from now.”

Seems our idiot/lazy Boomers, Gen-X-rs, Millennials, Gen-Z-rs, and just about everybody else, is the genius in the room; except for the 78-year-old.

He’s just a buffoon.

If someone has no real skill, experience or initiative, they resort to trash-talk like we see above.

Getting the right experience is the hard part.

Having experience in the markets involves many years of education (i.e. losses).

Just for documentation’s sake, let’s take a look at two examples of what experience looks like; each in their own respective industries.

Exhibit A:

Go ahead, check out this Bubba from Amarillo, Texas.

His customers drive from neighboring states, hundreds, if not thousands of miles away to have him rebuild their transmissions.

Within the first 5-minutes of the video above, there’s probably 30-years of experience on display.

I would suspect his rebuilds go for top-dollar; rightly so.

Then, we have this:

Exhibit B:

Yesterday’s market action, and today’s, has happened before.

That is:

A sharp multi percentage point, headline grabbing spike higher (within a down market), that’s immediately reversed the very next day.

Not only that, but the reversal also signified a bear market had started in earnest.

S&P 500, SPY, Daily Chart

Let’s set the stage.

In our example, the S&P had already topped and reversed.

It spent the next seven months heading lower and then retracing upward to an eventual downside reversal.

The next leg down continued, but then a few days later, there’s a massive, headline grabbing, upward spike.

Is the bear market over?

Is this the signal to buy the dip like our ‘experts’ above think for the current situation?

The next day, price action reversed the entire gain (like it has done today).

The chart shows the result.

From a personal standpoint, a 78-year old that’s still mentally sharp enough to provide his services and is not an obvious (globalist) sell-out the likes of which are on CNBC, then I’m very keen on what he would have to say.

His message: It’s the biggest bear market of his life.

Secondly, as Dr. Elder has said, ‘Trading is an old man’s game’. A good memory is critical to creating an edge.

In our example, I remember that upward spike well.

It was a Thursday.

The next day, price action reversed hard to the downside.

It never looked back for nine months.

Summary:

Is the S&P scenario described above, where we are now?

History never repeats itself exactly.

However, one can propose with some level of confidence, if today was the kickoff to the next leg, it has potential to be the fastest, farthest down price action in market history (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bounce’ Fails … Now, What ?

Get Right … Sit Tight

Yesterday’s upside failure (from Monday’s reversal) tells us it’s a very dangerous market environment.

Several YouTubers (here and here) and maybe more, the leaders anyway, have noted they’re providing good-faith analysis and potential tips, but that does not change the fact, ‘You’re on your own’.

The ‘rebound’ that Maverick discussed (second link, above) may have been on Monday and that’s all there was.

Absolutely nothing against him in any way.

If that was it for a bounce, we’re indeed in a very dangerous (to the downside) situation.

The S&P got itself into a Wyckoff Up-Thrust condition, noted here and shown on the daily chart below.

S&P 500 (SPY), Daily

It’s about midway through today’s session.

We can see SPY price action grinding its way down to support near the 410 – 415, level.

Up-Thrust, headed for ‘Spring’ ?

We already know from empirical observation that markets tend to go from spring to up-thrust.

Does it work the other way around … up-thrust to spring ?

From a personal standpoint, I do not have any data to show that behavior exists.

However, with SPY in its current position (near support) we may be about to see if there’s penetration and then attempts to move higher (i.e., in spring position).

The chart below shows current support.

There would need to be decisive penetration to set up the potential for any kind of sustained rebound.

The blue line is a significant support level.

The grey line just above, is also support, where price action is at the moment.

Penetration of either one sets up a spring.

Real Estate, IYR (Daily)

While the S&P fights it out at support, real estate, IYR is doing the same thing.

The previous post was looking for new highs in the sector.

At that time, it looked to be 50/50, odds of doing so.

Now, we’re right at the danger point.

It won’t take much for price action to confirm a spring or a break to lower levels.

It looks like we’ve already had an up-thrust which seems to point probability lower.

With the overall markets, the S&P at support now and deep oversold, points the opposite way, probability to the upside.

Summary

IYR had a shallow, 38% retrace during yesterday’s session before continuing lower and closing near the low of the day.

As that retrace was completing, a short position was opened via leveraged inverse SRS (SRS-22-01) and the stop set at yesterday’s IYR high of 109.58 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As this post is completing, IYR price action’s laboring to move higher (SRS, lower).

We’ll know soon enough if we’re in a breakdown or a spring.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Junior Miners, Stall-Out

First To Reverse

For the evening/overnight session, both gold and the S&P futures have opened lower.

The S&P is down 50-pts, nearly 1.10% (at about 8:15 p.m. Eastern) and already penetrating the last session’s low.

The number of technical factors concerning gold, the miners and especially the Junior Miners GDXJ, is significant.

We’ll cover just a few in this update.

Junior Miners, GDXJ: Daily

The un-marked daily chart shows GDXJ oscillating but in a general downward trend:

The next chart shows price action posted a reversal bar right at Fibonacci 23.6%, for the entire move; from the breakout highs in mid-November ’21, to the lows on January 28th, this year.

A ‘Fib’ retrace of 23.6%, is rare and if it holds, indicates significant weakness.

The next two charts present a case for why this shallow retrace may indeed hold and thus, indicate the start of the next leg lower.

On a print basis, it’s been a Fibonacci 55 (+1) days from the GDXJ print high on November 12th, 2021, to the high posted today (2/2/22).

The next chart shows that November 12th, 2021 was also the closing high of the breakout set-up.

The Important Part:

Yesterday, was the closing high of GDXJ (so far) and that makes it a perfect Fibonacci 55-Days, from peak-to-peak.

The last update on the miners showed significant down-pressure at support levels, unlike previous visits to the area.

Looks like we’ve had the rally that was forecast; that rally may now be fading.

“It’s reasonable to expect an attempt to rally in the coming week … but with this much down force, a successful rally is not the high-probability outcome.”

Gold Could Hold

Already discussed, is the idea, the actual price of gold may hold steady or even go higher and yet the mining sector collapses.

As Dan from i-Allegedly posts in this report, Italian wine makers are having a hard time getting corks for their bottles. That’s right, corks !!!

Does anyone really think a massive mining outfit is going to be able to source all they need to continue operations without interruption?

Let’s not even get started with the ‘sustainability’ corporate failure already baked into the cake 🙂

‘Stackers’ … We’ve Got You Covered

That’s right, if the last report was not enough, we now have this: Fertilizer plant on fire … imagine that.

Right in time for spring planting.

But wait, there’s more; look at the fire chief’s comments. How many “33s” can you count?

For we wrestle not

“For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.”

Sorry for those who think it’s all a ‘myth‘. I’m with Good Patriot on this one (time stamp 17:09); that we’re in a battle surpassing all that’s come, since 33 AD.

Gold & Silver

Hard assets: Good to have for sure (ammunition, seeds and egg-laying hens may be better) … but if we’re really in a similar event to Genesis 41, that means the corn and grain come first, then gold and silver.

Summary:

This post started with the S&P down about -0.80% and it’s now down -1.10%, posting a new daily low.

Gold is down slightly, holding steady but that’s already been discussed above.

Remaining short the sector via JDST-22-01 (not advice not a recommendation).

Position size on JDST-22-01, has been increased. More on that in the next report.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dominoes … Begin To Fall

Juggernaut Set In Motion


This just out from Activist Post, shows we’re in yet another ‘never before seen’ event.

One of the references in the article can be found at this link.

Many times on this site, the ‘reduction in size’ has been discussed.

Now, the official numbers are starting to show-up. The bottom line? Retail demand is going to evaporate.

As a side note, it’s interesting that YouTube now has videos on how to spot Myocarditis …. something we’ve (in the serfdom) have never heard of … until now.

While everyone seems to be focused on the overall markets, S&P, Dow, and QQQ, underneath the radar, gold and the miners continue to rachet themselves lower.

Senior Miners, GDX & Inverse DUST

The 2-Hour chart of inverse fund DUST shows we’re still at the danger point discussed yesterday.

The zoom chart (below) has an interesting distinction.

The distance between the blue-line trading range and the magenta-line trading range, is the same. The black-dashed arrow is equal length.

This implies that yesterday’s move, along with today’s may be an ‘a-b-c’ correction. A counter-trend move.

If so, the main direction has changed from down to up (for DUST).

Summary:

Still at the danger point, we remain short this sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

The good part, if price action reverses in DUST and begins to pressure the most recent lows, it’s an indication something else is afoot and the trade is failing.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Random Notes

Special ‘No-Normal’ Edition

No. 1

Dealing With ‘Brain Dead’

If you have to deal with asleep, brain-dead, self-hypnotized, condescending, mainstream news-feeders, here’s a tip.

Remember, it’s not “your opinion”.

Patent numbers, patent descriptions, dates, names, payrolls, money trails, corporations, whistleblower testimonies, irrefutable compilations like this, are not an opinion.

They are fact.

No. 2

No Infrastructure

From time stamp 12:08, to 14:27, in the above link (repeated here), there are 108, players or individuals receiving the benefits of ‘Speck’ protection.

We call it The Speck from Horton Hears A Who … because it’s so small, nobody’s ever found one; not even the Cee Dee Cee or the N ‘EYE’ H. Sorry for the ‘code’.

The majority of those in the compilation are so protected, they won’t ever need another update.

You might say, they’re ‘fully protected’.

We can take that montage and extrapolate it to the rest of the population. Remember this?

It does not take much to figure out, rapidly increasing instability is the way forward.

While there may be an infrastructure bill in name … if workers are not available and supplies restricted or non-existent, there’s no infrastructure.

Admittedly, that’s very oversimplified.

Sure, there may be some projects that get started and have limited progress.

However, after reading this summary of the built-in insanity, one really has to actually be favoring a collapse so these projects don’t get implemented to any large degree.

Bringing us to the next item.

No. 3

Double-Secret-Probation, ‘Omicron’

It would be nice to laugh at stupidity if stupidity wasn’t so dangerous.

The powers are wasting no time … declaring a ‘State of Emergency’ even though nothing has happened.

They openly mock the idiots that still buy into the hype; their contempt, completely out in the open.

Even a working-class Cockney Brit, has got it figured out. It can’t be that hard, can it?

Note at time stamp 2:40, it shows that we may have already had the Epsilon variant. It must have come and gone.

I completely missed it. My bad. 🙂

No. 4

The Sheep … Too Far Gone

A hopeful comment taken at time stamp 4:02, at this link:

Those who have bought in, and voluntarily injected themselves … even if they were lucky enough to get a placebo, will not wake up.

Amadha Vollmer has stated it well when she said, ‘when the truth finally hits, they will lose their minds.’

From a Biblical standpoint, that does not mean we give up on them. Plant the seed but then walk away and continue to prepare.

If by some miracle … because that’s what it would have to be, they do wake up, it’s your opportunity to take the lead and direct their (an your) next steps.

Be prepared … it could happen.

No. 5

So, Now It’s CXVXD-21 ?

You can’t make this up and it’s more insane by the day.

The sheer repetition of the fear narrative, like ever-increasing drug use for the same effect, has got to be wearing off … becoming less effective with each news release.

On top of that, there are literally less people able to buy into the narrative

Reference No 1, above. They have already received full protection; not subject to further updates.

No. 6

Sky High Ammo Prices

Going to the comment sections on YouTube sites or vendor sites, has the typical collection of blowhards saying:

“I refuse to pay these prices. I’m going to wait until they come down”.

It’s possible, at least some of these guys are the same middle-aged, overweight, out-of-shape posers, that like to have useless crap all over their AR.

When the bravest guy in the room is a woman (linked here), it means, that trash hanging off your AR is a bill-board; effectively saying:

‘I’m hiding behind my AR crap and probably a coward’.

Another woman, linked here, has actually decided to use the AR platform.

However, she trains with ‘Iron Sights’ … BAM !!!

Let’s go to this link and time stamp 1:13.

If that’s the future availability of our currently high-priced product, meaning there is none, does it really matter how much it costs now?

Of course, the posers are busy posing.

They won’t matter when it all hits. They’ll still be waiting for prices to come down on something that’s no longer there.

No. 7

S&P, In ‘Spring Position’

Price action penetrated support last week and is set to attempt a rally.

The futures market opened about 90-minutes ago and shows S&P trading up about +0.80%.

That upward bias may also lift the Basic Materials Sector (DJUSBM) and possibly offer a low risk short position via SMN (not advice, not a recommendation)

We’ll be watching.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

S&P: Rebound Finished?

Before The Open

‘Tap & Go’ Reversal

The last update on the S&P (SPY), said it was normal market behavior to bounce off a ‘spring’ set-up.

That’s just what we got.

Price action launched off the spring and ‘appears’ to have confirmed the underside of the 50-day Moving Average.

I say ‘appears’, because like many things in the markets, the moving averages are just another ruse.

They have no power (or meaning) of their own.

As my former mentor David Weis (now deceased) used to say: “They just confuse the situation.”

So, let’s get on to the price action.

S&P (SPY) Wyckoff Analysis:

What we have with yesterday’s action, is confirmation of an axis line that has now become resistance:

Volume has pulled back when compared to the prior session; indicating indecision or lack of commitment from the bulls.

We’ve just had confirmation of resistance.

At this juncture, price action was not able to penetrate and hold above that level.

If SPY, is to head higher from here, it’s up to the bulls to somehow find the energy to launch an assault on the resistance.

It could happen but is it probable?

The Fibonacci 61.8%, retrace level is just above resistance (not shown).

The market could drift and grind it’s way to that Fib level before a final reversal.

We’ll keep an eye on it.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

S&P, Rebound ?

Before The Open

Price Action Penetrates Support

Yesterday’s action in SPY, closed lower but not before bouncing off the top of the ‘Neckline’ as shown below:

We should also note, during that session, action penetrated the support level established on September 20th.

It’s a completely natural market behavior to ‘spring’ off penetration(s). Today’s pre-market session is doing just that.

The reason is, once support is penetrated, it sets off a flurry of orders; sell, sell short, and buy … along with the associated stops.

It’s a busy area in the market. Those orders need to be sorted out.

That’s where we are now. However, a couple items to note.

One:

Since September 23rd, in the regular session, SPY has posted seven consecutive lower highs.

Two:

As shown below, if price action opens (or gets no higher) than 430.60 – 430.70, or so, that action is trading right at a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace from the September 23rd high, to yesterday’s low:

Currently, with about 25-minutes to go before the open, SPY is right around 430.44 – 430.45.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

… “Like everybody else … “

Early Session

Or … ‘How To Lose Your Shirt’

If you’re reading this, consider yourself already separated or in the process of separating from the crowd.

At time stamp 5:15, in this from Uneducated Economist, there’s a mind-blowing statement from one of his followers.

UE is posting his thoughts on inflation. That is, there isn’t any … just like what this site proposes.

The commenter asked ‘Why don’t you see it just like everybody else does?’

It’s incredible but very telling on the collective mindset of those who are (or allow themselves to be) easily manipulated.

High School Correlation:

It’s not much different than High School (what a joke that was).

The popular kids seeming to have it all while the nerds, the geeks, and the weirdos were all left out … or bullied.

However, the raw edge of real life is not High School. That’s where the opportunity is for those in the very small minority.

Everybody has an equal chance to grow up.

After (years ago) going to my 10-year High School reunion, I realized the vast majority never grow or challenge themselves in any way.

I could see during the event, more than a few were already alcoholics. Deadening the pain of their cowardice.

As it turned out, I realized that ‘popularity’ is a prison. Locking up the individual in a life of fear (of becoming unpopular) and the associated mediocrity that results.

How does that anecdote relate to the problem at hand … the markets?

S&P Review:

It’s early in the session and the S&P (SPY), is trading lower.

The daily chart shows possible completion of the H&S pattern discussed previously.

The location of the report “The Plug Has Been Pulled” is also provided for reference.

At the time, it was uncertain and certainly unpopular to suggest the (potential) all time high was in.

So, we’ll see if the SPY, heads lower to start bouncing around the neckline … providing more confirmation of a significant reversal.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Is The ‘Bounce’, Over?

Early Session

S&P Bullish … Or Bearish?

This is how the S&P (SPY) looked before the open.

The blue lines show a small wedge pattern. Under bullish conditions, price action continues higher into a measured move; somewhere around SPY 449 – 450.

What we got at the open, is below:

The SPY opened lower and so far, has not continued its upward momentum.

It may be nothing; or it may signal the Right Shoulder of the Head & Shoulders, is complete.

As always, anything can happen. SPY may be just gathering steam for an attempt at new daily highs.

However, the action in biotech indicates the bears are moving into the markets; behind the scenes and slowly at first.

Biotech, SPBIO:

Biotech has opened lower (LABD higher).

Yesterday’s price action was entirely consistent with the ‘alternation’ discussed in that update.

For Example:

There was no (immediate) downward test from the September 17th low … and this time, the September 23rd low, there was:

We can see, after the open, price action for LABD is pushing higher (lower for SPBIO):

If we get a new daily high for LABD (above yesterday’s 19.62), it signifies the lower testing action is likely complete; the bears are taking control of biotech.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

S&P, Retrace … And Then?

S&P 500 (SPY) At 61.8%, Retrace

Actually, all three of the major indices, the S&P, The Dow, the NASDAQ have each retraced to (at or near) a Fibonacci 61.8%, level.

The daily SPY is shown above.

Taking away the Fibonacci retrace levels, then adding notations gives us the following:

It appears we could be at the right side of a Head & Shoulders top.

Price action rolling over from here, then bouncing around the neckline (before breakdown) would let us know, we’re in a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.