Category Archives: SPY

KKR … Reversal

August 9, 2026 By in S&P 500, S&P, Dow 30, DIA, SPY, SOXX, QQQ, Nasdaq, Semiconductors, Up-Thrust, KKR

Ruh, Roh Moment

While the Dow, S&P, Qs and the SOXX all seem ready to continue higher, KKR, is absent from the party.

There’s an up-thrust reversal from resistance, then decline to minor support (dashed grey line).

Volume is increasing as price action nears that level.

The suggestion then, is the support will fail (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Like, Never Before’

May 24, 2026 By in S&P 500, S&P, Bonds, SPY, TLT, SOXX, SOXS, Semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Thoughtful Money, SOXS-26-04

Unprecedented

The market rally’s unprecedented; like never before.

Will it be the same on the way down? (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adam Taggart says in the latest Ed Dowd interview:

‘Vertical moves don’t correct by going sideways’

Some Highlights

The entire interview is worth the time. However, some excerpts are below. Time stamps are in (parentheses).

Market summary (2:20)

Double ordering of inventory (8:28)

Helium shortage (9:00)

The beginning of the end (9:30)

Bonds, long term lows (10:48)

All you need is one company to slow ordering (13:30)

‘You don’t crash from tops’ (14:18)

‘I’ve never seen anything like this’ (14:40)

Price washout, sets up opportunities (19:30)

A.I. creating more problems than it solves (43:20)

Nvidia to retrace 80% – 90% (45:30)

This is my third rodeo … it’s all echoing (47:25)

‘It’s going to be fast’ (48:07)

Oil breakout (49:15)

Gold, source of liquidity (59:20)

Buffett’s at 40% cash (1:01:00)

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond ‘Stick-Save?’

May 19, 2026 By in S&P 500, S&P, Bonds, Interest Rates, SPY, TLT, 2007 - 2008, 2000 - 2001 4 Comments

Back, in the Day

It’s no secret, bonds (TLT) are at a critical juncture; primed to break significantly lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Breakdown, is almost a ‘no-brainer’.

Almost.

For those old enough, remember back in the early 2000s, the S&P had formed a near-perfect Head & Shoulders?

Remember, how price action was printing lower, ready to penetrate the down-sloping neckline?

Then, just as it got there (week of 10/11/02), from out of nowhere, came a launch upward that didn’t stop until October of 2007?

Rember that?

Of course, we found out later, the ‘hidden hand’ was at work, preventing a melt-down; leading us to where we are today. 🙂

Let’s all keep that in mind as we watch the bond market flirt with disaster (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The S&P Top … and Drop

May 16, 2026 By in S&P 500, S&P, SPY, SOXX, SOXS, Tom Hougaard, SOXS-26-03

Interesting Numbers

Trading professional Tom Hougaard has already told us, if Friday’s market action trades below the prior day, Thursday, then Monday tends to be lower as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s a lot going on in the S&P chart below.

S&P 500 SPY, Daily

The current move bottom-to-top, was 33 Days

If the SPY retraces from Friday’s close to the ‘Measured Move’ target, it’s a drop of approximately –3% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s throw in some SOXX, stats as well.

SOXX all-time high (5/11), was 533.74. The ‘test’ high (5/14), was 533.13, closing at 530.03, a daily gain of +0.33%.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Off The Cliff?

May 15, 2026 By in S&P 500, S&P, SPY, SOXX, SOXS, Semiconductors, Artificial Intelligence, SOXS-26-03

Won’t Know, ’till Monday

First, there was ‘shortening of the thrust’, link here.

Then, it was ‘SOXX goes parabolic’, link here.

After that, it was ‘change of character’, link here.

On the heels of that, ‘no new highs’, link here.

Finally, today, we have a gap-down open, new daily low and closing low.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

It’s important to note, the S&P (SPY) also posted a gap down, close down for the day.

A gap down from all-time highs.

Of course, it could all be much ado about nothing (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Downside Breakaway … SOXX

March 21, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, Nasdaq, NVDA, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-26-04, YouTube Black Swan 2 Comments

Some Gaps, Never Filled

The day after the SOXX, topped on February 25th, was, this update.

In the case of Nvidia, it never printed or closed above the high reached on that day.

Well, the SOXX never made it back either.

Then, March 3rd, we have what looks like a ‘breakaway’ gap.

There’ve been at least two attempts to close that gap.

One of those attempts, a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up, which may have failed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

Other markets have rolled over as well; the Dow, S&P, the Qs, Biotech and so on (not advice, not a recommendation).

This just out, shows the typical response to an oil price shock, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Last Time, Was ’29

March 14, 2026 By in 1929, 2007 - 2008, Alice Cheung, GLW, GLW-26-01, GLW-26-02, GLW-26-03, GLW-26-04, GLW-26-05, GLW-26-06, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Oil, S&P 500, SPY, USO, YouTube Black Swan Tags: , ,

Hundred-Year Extremes

Going all the way back, this link, shows we’ve gone beyond 1929 levels.

It seems, nearly every recession (depression) gets kicked off with a spike in oil prices.

In 2008, USO peaked during the week of July 11, that year.

However, the damage was done.

The S&P (SPY) was already in decline, having peaked the week of October 12th, a year earlier.

Another Extreme

Not to be outdone with the valuation extreme, we have the mutual fund cash extreme at this link.

Mutual fund managers are ‘all-in’, Time Stamp 4:15 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, there’s ‘private credit’, link here.

Now, on to the trade du jour.

Corning GLW, Weekly

As GLW, was breaking out from generational highs, three attempts were made to short; result, small losses.

Adjusting Behavior

The most important take-away, is the behavior change as a result of losing entries; that is, stand-aside.

As said many times on this site:

“There’s nothing wrong with being wrong. It’s being wrong and staying wrong that’s the problem”

Once the Fibonacci sequence was identified, link here, short positioning continued.

Next Steps

Anything can happen.

For the chart above, the stop on the -06, trade is last Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that high as minor resistance, there’s also the weekly high at 139.63, for additional ‘protection’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

S&P Top of Channel

January 27, 2026 By in Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

Catalyst, Tomorrow?

Is the S&P about to blow-up in a downside reversal or breakout into a blow-off top?

This link does a good job covering the current situation.

The catalyst or ‘excuse’ for either scenario may happen at the Fed announcement, tomorrow (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Margin Debt … $1-Trillion

September 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-11, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XLF, ZeroHedge

When it Implodes

Is the bell ringing?

Is this it?

In the pre-market, SPY, DIA, XLF, QQQs, all-time highs.

Meanwhile, beneath the surface, it’s getting a bit ‘uncomfortable’.

One Trillion in margin debt as reported here and here.

The Ones To Watch

While all eyes are focused on the leaders (above), at least three markets are not participating:

Real Estate, IYR, Russell IWM, biotech, IBB, and XBI.

From a Wyckoff perspective, for short candidates, these are the ones to watch (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech, XBI

As stated in the prior update, XBI may have formed a triple top within and ‘up-thrust’, link here.

The obvious areas to watch for today’s session, are yesterday’s high and low.

A new high puts the up-thrust into question; new low, adds (a small) confirmation to reversal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Breakout or Breakdown … Biotech

September 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-25-11, MyStrategicForecast, Positions, QQQ, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, XBI 2 Comments

‘Winds of Change‘

The last update said, XBI presented the ‘best (index) short opportunity’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Is that still true?

With the SPY and Qs, still grinding higher, XBI is absent, having topped four days ago.

It’s not necessarily the top per se, but the XBI location in the overall market.

While the major indices are just now reaching all-time highs, biotech XBI, posted all-time highs years ago.

Four and a half years, to be more precise.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today’s action can be considered as a ‘test’ of the attempted (possibly failed) breakout.

There’s ‘evidence of a struggle’ and XBI is not (at this time) moving higher.

Adding to that, we have what’s been referred to as ‘Kabuki Theater‘ coming up at 2:00 p.m., EST, tomorrow).

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279