Newmont’s New Highs

How Long Will This Last ?

Looking at the charts below, the amount capital being thrown at the last man standing, NEM, is stunning.

A real sustainable precious metals (and stocks) bull market typically starts with the weakest sectors.

They are the ones in the worst financial shape. They are the ones to benefit the most from an increase in metals prices.

That’s not happening.

Instead, we have what looks to be a market thinning out, on a massive scale.

Everything being poured into the leader … Newmont.

The charts below are from Monday’s close. Scroll up and down to get a ‘feel’ for what’s really happening.

It’s a bull market, non-confirmation on a huge scale.

Basically, the rest of the market, the rest of the Senior Miners and Juniors, don’t believe current conditions are sustainable.

How could they be?

Let’s get real and pose even the most basic questions.

How are these operations going to get spare parts or new equipment for their operations? How are they going to feed their employees?

Lastly, what about the ones that have forced their workforce to be injected?

Newmont (NEM), Weekly Close

Senior Miners, GDX, Weekly Close

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

The price action alone, tells us capital is flowing out of all sectors and into Newmont (NEM).

Just to make sure the herd continues to herd; that no-one else, is presenting this information, here’s a brief list of recent ‘analysis’.

Me-Too: Gold To The Moon

Will Gold give a Massive Breakout From it’s Sideways Trend ? Lyn Alden Prediction

Gold & Silver Breakout | On Track to Go Higher

GOLD Prices Will Not Stop RISING!! BUY GOLD Before This Happens.. – Chris Vermeulen | Prediction

Gold Breakout: Breakaway Gaps Confirmed

Silver Will Hit $1200/OZ as Russia Invades Ukraine – Lynette Zang | Silver Price Prediction

Gold price rally will power to $2,700, then $7,400 as ‘perfect storm’ brews – Chris Vermeulen


A Different View

Momentum indicators are pointing higher for both gold and the miners … that does not mean it’s a buy (not advice, not a recommendation).

For both GDX, and GDXJ, they’re entering up-thrust (potential reversal) territory as discussed in a previous post.

It’s time to monitor the sector for potential exhaustion and change of momentum.

That momentum could take a while to bleed-off … being patient is just one requirement for successful speculation.


From the panic, you would think no one’s ever seen a down market. On top of that, we’re potentially just getting underway.

This is the exact environment where Wycoff analysis comes to the fore: ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’

That analysis says, gold and the miners could still push a bit higher but there are huge disconnects under the surface; not the least of which, silver’s also not confirming the move.

More on that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver, Going To Single Digits ?

It’s A Depression


It’s An Industrial Metal

They don’t call it ‘silver solder’ for nothing.

As the link above says, it’s almost ‘impossible’ to substitute.

Silver goes into nearly everything electronic.

Depending on whom you believe, the mainstream says the Future’s So Bright … right?

However, the charts say we may be headed much lower.

Remember the silver ‘short-squeeze’ and the little guy putting-it to ‘The Man’?

At this point, the only silver put around is on the little guy.

The Man’s going merrily along; short the sector that was so recently hyped with gold to “$3000 In Months, Not Years”

In Steven Van Metre’s latest update, he said no fewer than three times, the Fed ‘does not print money’.

It’s a false belief (by the public) they’re not about to change.

At the end if his video, he promised a report … or to make accessible his research on how that (not printing) is so.

Bringing us to the market at hand.

Silver (SLV)

Monthly un-marked chart.

The main thing to note above, SLV, is not at new highs.

In fact, at today’s price, SLV is down over 57%, from its all-time high set in April of 2011.

That in itself, should say there’s something wrong with the inflation, hyper-inflation, narrative.

Using a standard Fibonacci projection tool and tagging the 2011 high, the 2020 low, and the 2021, retrace high, we get the following:

It’s a little hard to see … so we’ll zoom in on the right side.

The 50%, Fibonacci projection, is somewhere between SLV: 9.00, and 9.50.

The premise for declining past 38% (around 13.70) and getting at least to 50%, is predicated on the collapse of the economy and subsequent evaporation of silver demand … at least from an industrial standpoint.

The precious metals ‘stacker’, discussed below, might become more interested in obtaining food than continuing to stockpile something that in times of famine, has very little use.

With the SLV chart above, is that even possible?

SLV, to single digits?

Well, can oil futures go negative?

Enough said.

Food As The Weapon

This site’s been steadfast in thinking, it’s the food first, then silver and gold.

Here are two more links to add to our ‘stack’ supporting that assessment.

The Stage Is Set

Famine Comes Next

As Bjorn says in ‘famine’, come this spring, when the masses realize there will be no (or very little) food and/or you need ‘papers’ to buy food, market pandemonium (if not already) is the likely result; precious metals included.

When To ‘Stack’

So, when will be the time to acquire precious metals (not advice not a recommendation).

It’s deceptively simple; ‘When you don’t want to’.

The time to acquire an asset, is when nobody else wants it … including you.

Positioning short the gold miners GDX, was done when everybody and their dog was a manic bull; screaming an upside breakout was “imminent”.

As Prechter said, positioning opposite the herd involves overriding the limbic system of the brain.

It’s an intellectual (logic-only, thinking) process.

However, overriding the lower brain, i.e., going against the herd, is physically painful.

Excruciating, is a better description.

He went on to say, some of the best traders/speculators he ever knew, were former Marines.


Coming up (most likely tomorrow) will be a chart showing positions opened in GDX inverse fund DUST (not advice not a recommendation).

There’s no obligation on this site’s part to reveal that information.

However, it will help explain how the market itself directed trading actions.

It will also show how the on-going reversal corrected several entry errors on my part.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver: Leading The Way, Lower

Already Below Resistance

While gold (GLD) is just above its resistance breakout, silver’s not waiting around.

It’s already below its breakout; apparently leading to the downside.

Using ‘boots on the ground’ type reporting from sources like Jerimiah Babe and Dan (I Allegedly), the financial collapse is accelerating.

The metals look like they’re not exempt from financial conditions (deflation); they’re at the cusp of reversal.

Silver (SLV) Daily Chart:

The next chart zooms in on the reversal area.

It’s clear; SLV is now below resistance … a bearish indication.

At some point and if you live long enough (and have a working brain) you realize it’s all about manipulation.

Everything is manipulated.

Separating from that trap is akin to mental bravery; setting you apart from the mindless herd and at times, in opposition to that herd.

Silver (SLV) is down a whopping -53% from its high set over a decade ago in April of 2011. How can we be in inflation or hyperinflation?

That’s to come … maybe.

Right now, silver’s giving us a signal; lower prices ahead.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Heading Lower

2:41 p.m., EST

‘Short Squeeze’ is Over

Those getting that ‘uh-oh’ feeling with their precious metals hoard, being first to recognize the error (not advice, not a recommendation) may be out in front; liquidating to buy storable food, water filtration, protection and power.

Since there’s so much injection ‘resistance’ does anyone really think it’s over?

Next step, starve them out.

Taking a cue from the late Zig Ziglar; he would start his presentations by telling the audience the one that needs to listen most closely, the one who needs to heed (and follow) his advice most, was himself.

‘Walk the talk’ … which he did.

I personally have some silver … even some gold. However, I am following the Biblical (Genesis 41) standard of where we are (again, not advice, not a recommendation).

If I had a massive ‘stack’, there’s a risk I would begin to trust in the ‘riches’ themselves.

All that’s needed is some kind of ransom or cyber attack at major trucking centers to effectively shut down the food supply.

Its already happened with gasoline distribution … trucking companies would be child’s-play.

Here’s a presentation on just how quickly food becomes the main, if not the only consideration when supply lines break down.

The daily close chart of SLV, shows the possibility of a measured move lower to 18.0 – 18.50, area.

The caveat is, once a reversal like that gets going, the hyper–inflationists are going to get very nervous.

Then, if there’s another ‘infrastructure’ event, we could see a mass panic liquidation. The next chess move (food supply) would be obvious; the stackers would be ‘check-mated’.

Russian Ready:

Is it a coincidence the new Russian jet fighter is named: шахматы

That’s pronounced “Shock … ma … Tee” (Check-mate)

They’re standing by while the enemy continues to (intentionally) weaken its own defenses.

Recall, the Russians do not have a ‘diverse workforce’.

Not sure what the Russians would want with a pathetic soy-boy enclave of woke-ness.

Maybe they would feed them to the Chechens. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Deflation = Credit Destruction

Silver Collapse Ahead?

If and when food shipments halt nationwide and there’s nothing at the grocery store, is everyone going to run to gold and silver?

Will that be the savior?

It certainly wasn’t during the ‘Texas Freeze’. Not even on the list of must-haves.

The next planned event(s) are in plain sight for those who can see.

Mega drought in the corn belt (whether real or not), power substation blows up in Houston (that one was real) and planned destruction (or total control) of semi-trailer shipping (also real).

It’s the food supply and infrastructure first; then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Wells Fargo incident; inflation has likely run its course.

The dollar (and bonds) are in strong upside reversals; gold and sliver are (still) inversely correlated to those markets.

Inflation is credit expansion. Deflation is credit destruction. That’s where we are now.

Analysis: Silver

It’s the job of the mainstream financial media to make sure as many as possible are on the wrong side of the trade.

They have done well with the ‘inflation’ narrative.

Uneducated Economist puts it well; price increases are the result of supply constriction not inflation.

Which brings us to silver.

The weekly close of silver proxy SLV, has the ‘short squeeze’ already complete.

Shortages of product, continued inflation pummeling by the press, have not moved the metal higher; that’s the ‘tell’, something’s wrong.

Wells Fargo has kicked off the next round; deflation or deflation impulse.

One has to be prepared; silver may (even if only for a few days or weeks) head down to below where it started the squeeze.

Even to single digits … $9/oz., anyone?

If that happens, it means that gold and silver are being dumped onto the market while everyone’s scrambling for food, water and protection.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Inflation Reaches Peak Narrative

11:32 a.m., EST:

Just like ‘peak oil’ back in the summer of 2008, now it looks like we’ve reached ‘peak narrative’ for inflation.

‘Narrative’, because the markets are a game of manipulation.

If you don’t know who’s being manipulated, then that person is you (slightly changing a Buffett quote).

Bolstering the assessment, is this report from ZeroHedge.

Looks like everybody’s on board and reporting higher prices. Just like they were on board last year with: “We’re all in this together”.

The exact same tag-line for every major U.S. corporation … with ready made (like they knew ahead of time) banners to boot.

The problem is, the markets are not following along.

Reported two days ago, senior gold miners are testing their reversal.

Yesterday, was an upward push that wound up being an ‘out-side-down’ bar (GLD, GDXJ, SLV) … a reversal in itself.

That’s not in the script. Or, is it?

At this point, the public’s literally redirected, manipulated, at will. It’s a sick game being played by all who control the media.

From a personal standpoint, I’d rather make some popcorn, take my red wagon full of fiat, go camp down around $800/oz., and wait.

The gold ice cream man may never show up. If he does, great.

If not, there’re other opportunities; at least I’ll not be one of the manipulated masses screaming inflation hyperbole if/as/when gold ratchets all the way down.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold, The Big Picture

The bottom line for gold is: Retrace, lower

No-one in the inflation camp wants to hear that … it’s uncomfortable to face the potential of being so wrong.

Albeit wrong in the short term but probably right later … after it’s too late. More on that farther down.

Just like the lazy (and complicit, we might add) financial journalist publishing the standard (speck blaming) propaganda for the day, so too are the hyper-inflationists, jumping on the most popular bandwagon in town.

Not even considering the potential for a retrace; admittedly, which could be short and sharp but significant nonetheless.

This site has presented several times, we’re in a situation similar to that of Genesis 41. It’s the corn and grain first … then gold and silver.

Just to back that up a bit before getting to the charts, we have the following:

Crop failures world-wide

Systematic destruction of the food supply chain

Systematic elimination of farms and viable (for millennia) ranching practices.

Solar minima activity (decreased sun-spots) causing erratic weather patterns, shifting growing zones; even as far as sub Sahara, Sudan.

Those so focused on stacking metals will likely be using that stack to pry much needed food, food staples, seeds and fertilizer out of the hands of those not willing to sell … at any price.

Why are the oligarchs not worried about the ‘little guy’ stacking metals?

Because there’re going to make it irrelevant … at least for just long enough to completely bankrupt, starve or ‘inject’ the middle class.

Moving on to the charts:

The title header said ‘big picture’. Here we are with monthly gold charts going back to the 1950s, time-frame.

It’s been a long … long bull market. It appears to have made a top at ~1,972 and is retracing … if only just a bit.

The second chart is the one that gives us pause. Consider the potential for a more substantial pull-back.

Markets like to retrace and test. It’s what they do.

That second chart is scary. It’s plain, the 760 – 780 area is a long time (monthly) support level that goes all the way back to 1980.

Absolutely no-one expects, or is planning for gold to get back to $800/oz, or lower.

Think of the irony. The ‘stackers’ (and maybe the rest of us), having to exchange actual money, gold and silver, for worthless fiat just so they/we can buy food to stay alive.

After the middle class stackers have exhausted their metals hoard, that’s when gold and silver will launch into the next bull phase.

It has been done this way (keeping the peasants under control), literally for millennia. The method works … why change?


The intent here, is to at least recognize the possibility for the above scenario. It’s clear and becoming more clear every day, food is the weapon of choice.

The objective is to have enough food ahead of time; be in position to take advantage of once-in-a-lifetime metals prices should that opportunity be presented.

Stay Tuned

Charts by Macrotrends

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Silver: Sunday & Overnight

It’s about 9:37p.m. EST, on Sunday. Price action in the futures markets (SIK21) has silver up about +0.40%.

Projecting that action onto the regular daily session of silver, has it within the black box; located right up against the blue trend line.

At this juncture, the down-trend is still in effect.

In others markets … real estate:

A report just out by Uneducated Economist has ‘boots on the ground’ reports lumber inventory (for housing construction) is piling up at mills at levels never before seen … ‘stacked to the rafters’.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Technical Discussion: Silver

This is going to be one of those technical discussions that are tedious and long-winded (also to include at least one boring anecdote).

If desired, go to the Summary for the CliffsNotes wrap up.

For the rest, let’s get into it:

A quick look at the news and financial sites has the inflation narrative still raging.

This link to an article on ZeroHedge offers a slightly different perspective than one-way hyperinflation.

At least it says deflation is a possibility.

Back in the day, I used to read as many of these press releases as possible; combine them, put them in a spreadsheet, develop a ‘voting’ system (with variable adjusted algorithmic weighting), look at buy and sell recommendations, try to figure out if MACD, RSI and Stochastics could predict the next move … and then, I would watch Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser.

It’s a frustrating, unprofitable exercise that was ultimately abandoned while the search for market truth carried on; only to be found much later in 2007; that’s a story for another time.

There’s nothing wrong with Rukeyser. In fact, I did use his program (once) in what was at the time, a trade of pure intuition.

During his opening monologue (probably May 19th, 1989), Rukeyser talked about gold reaching multi-year lows.

At the time, I had been monitoring the gold miners and specifically Echo Bay Mines (ECO). Echo is now part of Kinross Gold.

The sense was ECO had slowed its decline and seemed ready to move higher. Gold also felt like it might retrace part of its decline.

The trade result is on the chart below:

The entry date for going long ECO was May 22, 1989, a Monday.

That would seem to follow if Rukeyser’s gold statements were on his (prior) Friday broadcast.

As the chart shows, gold bounced and then went slightly lower before going into a sharp (but short) rise.

The exit came on January 23rd 1990, right at the top of the brief move.

Once again, it was from intuitive feeling that gold had reached some kind of stopping point.

What solidified thinking ‘we’re at a top’, was Joe Granville coming out in his newsletter that he was going “all-in” on gold.

At the time, Granville was not making good market calls. This one seemed like a stab for attention as by now, gold was in the news.

To add to the nostalgia (looking at the confirmations), commission for going long (100 shares) was $47.60 and for getting out, $49.00

Many decades later and in retrospect, the trade worked because it was sentiment based.

After declining steadily for two years, gold sentiment was negative. At the top in January ’90, it had tuned positive.

What does all that have to do with today?

Looking at the chart of gold above, you’ll note a sharp rise in price from June of ’86 to October ’86. In effect, it’s a wide price bar.

From Wyckoff analysis, markets tend to come back to wide areas for a test. That’s exactly what we see from December ’87, onward.

Now, let’s look at the monthly close of silver (SLV):

The chart shows how each wide bar has (ultimately) been tested. Price action either rises to test or declines … but it does test.

This is how markets behave. It’s what they do.

Looking at the current situation for silver, one would think it’s time to exit (if long); anticipating a retrace or go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s a wide bar from the March 2020, low to the August 2020 high, that has not been tested.

That (test) thinking is bolstered further, by the chart below:

On a monthly closing basis, SLV has pivoted (down) off the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace level when looking at the entire decline from April 2011, to march 2020.

In addition, it tagged the 23.6% level as a pivot to the upside which led into the now famous, but fading fast, ‘short-squeeze’.

It’s important to note, the short squeeze was so weak, it could not even register a new closing high on the monthly chart.


It’s not important or profitable to figure out whether it’s inflation or deflation. The important part (and the hard part) is to read the price action itself.

That price action … at least for silver, is saying we’re at a juncture (Friday’s close) where SLV’s in position to retrace and test the wide trading area created from March – August, of last year.

A retrace is possible because that’s what markets do. Our anecdote example from 1989, shows that markets do not change.

If silver, SLV opens lower on Monday, it weights the probability we’re on our way to the 17.50 – 18.00 level and/or a test the March ’20 lows.

If it opens higher, the market’s in spring position (ready to head higher) as described in this link.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts & macrotrends

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Market Duality: Silver

Silver, SLV’s at a juncture where it can either go sharply higher or continue lower from here

Punching through support puts SLV at the danger point.

Whenever price action penetrates support and hesitates, it’s in Wyckoff spring position; poised to move higher.

Because we’ve got a weekly MACD bearish divergence in addition to a huge volume ‘changing of hands’ on February 1st, probability would favor downside action … continuing on to 17.50 – 18.00 area.

Nonetheless, SLV could rally from here … even in the midst of a longer term bearish (deflationary) environment.

The precious metals sector is a crowded trade and one to be avoided (not advice, not a recommendation).

An interesting post on the current inflation/deflation scenario is here.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.