There’s been a change in direction; a sentiment shift.
Not in any particular order:
The Fed will not, or does not want to control the long end of the curve (long bond).
Interest rates (mortgage rates) are now rising and have been there long enough to start affecting the real estate market.
As reported by Uneducated Economist, there’s been a shift in behavior of his lumber customers.
Instead of furiously attempting to secure lumber (as prices continue to rise), now, there’re backing off; Not wanting to be holding overpriced inventory if/when there’s a reversal.
Sentiment first. Then volume. Then direction
From way across the pond, Bjorn Andreas Bull-Hansen gives his input that ‘Things are changing … the entire structure of society’.
He also sates, as this site has done many times … ‘it’s not coming back’.
Has all this fed into the markets?
Let’s take another look at the S&P 500 (SPY), analyzed on the 15th.
At that time, we stated the SPY’s at the danger point.
The original location of that analysis is the orange arrow. Indeed, the SPY continued a brief rise before reversing.
Downward pressure (thrust energy) has increased.
Unless it’s a flash-crash, markets do not go straight down.
The SPY shows a nascent reversal. Price could come back to test resistance (black line) or continue to decline from here.
It’s important to note the overall market position (of the large indices) as they affect everything else.
With that, our focus remains on biotech (IBB) as it appears to be the weakest of the major sectors (not advice, not a recommendation).
Sunday futures open in a few hours.
Charts by StockCharts