Last Time … is not … This Time

The Rule of Alternation

That’s it in a nutshell. What happened last time, won’t happen this time.

The market reveals its own secrets; you just have to know where to look.

An entire industry has been (purposely) built to make sure the ‘average investor’ never finds the truth of the markets.

That industry is the financial analysis industry; the one with the P/E ratios, Debt-to-Equity, and so on.

Sure, it was a tongue-in-cheek post to use the fact that Carvana had no P/E (linked here).

I’m not certain if they ever had a P/E; probably not.

However, that financial, i.e., fundamental(s) fact, did not keep the stock from going up over 4,529%, in four years.

It should be noted, the Carvana analysis was done on a Saturday (as has this one). At the very next trading session, CVNA posted lower, started its decline in earnest and never looked back.

Not saying that exact thing (timing it to the day) will happen with our next candidate real estate; as said before, part of Wyckoff analysis (a lot of it, actually) is straight-up intuition.

The good part from a computer manipulated and controlled market perspective, intuition can’t be quantified.

So, that’s your edge.

Let’s move on to ‘last time is not this time’ and see what the real estate market IYR, is telling us.

Weekly Chart, IYR

We’ve got the weekly un-marked chart of IYR, below.

The ‘alternation’ is there.

Here it is, close-up.

The first leg lower had some initial smoothness but quickly became choppy and overlapping.

Not so, now.

We’re essentially heading straight down.

Fundamentals

From a fundamental standpoint, real estate is finished. However, it’s been finished for a long time.

The fundamentals won’t and can’t tell anyone what’s likely to happen at the next trading session … or any other session.

The market itself (shown above) is saying the probabilities are for a continued decline; posting smooth long bars until some meaningful demand is encountered.

As shown on the last post, if the trading channel is in-effect, that (chart) demand is a long way down.

Positioning

Shorting IYR via DRV, has been covered in previous posts (search for DRV-22-02).

The following weekly chart, is marked up with two arrows.

Arrow No. 1

Initial short position via DRV was opened late in the day on April 28th; the day before the market broke significantly lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Arrow No. 2

As the market headed lower during the week just ended, the size of the DRV position was increased by 36%.

Currently, the gain on the total position is about +22%.

At this juncture, the DRV stop is located well in the green in the unlikely event we get a sharp IYR, upward move in the coming week.

Summary

Under ‘normal’ conditions one could expect some kind of upward bounce in the days ahead.

However, as shown already with big cap leader PLD, the situation’s anything but normal.

Highlighted in earlier posts, biotech is leading the way with SPBIO, currently down – 59.8%, from its highs.

Biotech IBB, with chief cook and (globalist) bottle washer Moderna (MRNA), is down – 36.2%.

As Dan from i-Allegedly has stated time and again, we’re already in a depression.

So, buckle your seatbelt Dorothy …

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Heart Failure’ … The New Normal

… What It Could Mean For Biotech

So, now it starts.

This just out from ZeroHedge, linked here, shows the ‘elephant’ has begun to go mainstream.

Another chess-move.

At least one previous post (No.1, linked here), has shown the phenomenon is not a one-off event.

Now, according to the link above, there’s an estimated 300,000 affected … and we’re just getting started.

Insiders Sell … Retail Buys

Do those at the highest levels know their customer base is about to evaporate on a world-wide basis?

While they may not know every detail, they at least know something’s up. Steven Van Metre discusses the insider selling in his latest update, linked here.

Front End Phenomenon

We’re still at the beginning stages of an event that in the opinion of this author, is going to last the lifetime of those reading this post.

‘Hyperbolic statement’ one might say.

To that, I would counter with this; when it was posted, the ‘elephant’ was hyperbolic as well.

Now? Not so much.

Keeping that long range thinking in mind also keeps one from choosing the ‘insane’ human behaviors discussed by Dan (I Allegedly) in his latest post.

So, let’s take a look at what type of insanity we have going on in the markets today.

Of course, that points us to our chief cook and bottle washer, biotech (IBB).

Biotech, IBB

When we last left our hero, savior, and protector of all that is natural immunity, the biotech discussion was on Moderna (MRNA).

The thrust higher, detailed in this post was thought to be too fast for a sustained reversal. Well, it was right and wrong at the same time.

Moderna wound up reversing … sort of.

At the same time, the biotech sector headed lower to support and is now moving higher.

The weekly IBB, chart has the support (lower blue line) and potential up-thrust location (also 50%, retrace) identified.

The zoom shows the narrow gap between the weekly bars and 50% retrace.

If price action makes it past the resistance bars and into the gap, IBB would then be in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


Panic In The Streets …

Remain Calm. All, Is Well.

All, Is Well !!!

It certainly feels like Animal House, doesn’t it?

A bunch of idiots running around, glued to the mainstream narrative.

However, let’s not digress but rather get to the chief cook and bottle washer at hand.

Moderna (MRNA) and Biotech (IBB).

Biotech: MRNA, IBB

Moderna’s move above resistance (‘Target’ level in this update) seems too fast for up-thrust and reversal.

It could reverse from here.

However, the more likely scenario is the mainstream milks this whole thing all the way to Christmas and beyond.

That brings us to the sector itself, IBB:

We’ll go straight to the marked-up (daily) chart.

It’s starting to look familiar isn’t it?

Spring-to-Up-Thrust … Spring-to-Up-Thrust

But wait … there’s more!

A Fibonacci 21-Days from the most recent IBB, low on November 23rd, puts the date at December 22; The Winter Solstice.

How convenient.

Of course, anything can happen between now and then. At least we have a potential target and scenario.

As with the gold miner’s (GDX) short that’s still on-going (not advice, not a recommendation), we get to see how it all plays out.

Will Biotech, IBB, be in up-thrust (reversal) position, on or around December 22nd?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

… Cue The ‘Hype’

Right On Schedule … A New ‘Variant’

Seems like just yesterday, we were saying:

“There’s all kinds of nastiness in the guise of ‘new strains’ out there; likely to raise their heads before Christmas and probably after as well.”

Wait, … that really was, yesterday.

So, now we have the ‘Nu variant’.

Get it? A, new variant. 🙂

The ‘Epsilon’ variant (from the idiot in Brave New World) is probably being saved for last … because if anyone’s still believing the hype by that time, it won’t matter … they’ll be fully ‘boosted’.

That doesn’t mean the pros can’t make money off the herd … while there still is a herd.

Which brings us to today’s underside test action of MRNA.

Moderna (MRNA):

Well, that retrace was quick.

First, let’s show yesterday’s weekly chart.

And now, today’s

It’s true that price action is testing the underside.

However, if we go to the daily chart (below), we can see if price action can make it just a bit higher … to the 360 – 380 area, then we have an up-thrust (potential reversal) condition.

The chart looks similar to our gold (GLD) up-thrust target, linked here for reference.

Recall, for that set-up, it took two months for GLD, to penetrate resistance … and then go into a vicious reversal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Repeating Trend … Back Again

After The Close

Inverse Fund LABD In Repeating Trend

Final Pivot Higher?

For months, the biotech SPBIO and its leveraged inverse fund LABD have shown a repeating trendline characteristic.

This time around, the two right-side trend contact points (shown above) are LABD’s (Day 34) outside up reversal and today’s Fed minutes release, reversal.

The chart below is a compressed version of LABD. It gives a better perspective on the gain potential.

Looking at the chart it’s clear why so much focus has been placed on strategically shorting biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).

If there’s a decisive SPBIO break lower, the gain potential for inverse LABD is significant.

Time frame for exit (not advice, not a recommendation) unless price action dictates otherwise, is still planned for mid-October.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘When’s the next Bear Market?’

9:47 a.m., EST

ZeroHedge Report Acts Like It’s Not Here

Jerimiah Babe says “Have You Looked Outside?”

If the mainstream media is good for anything, it’s the ability to keep the herd, the retail, (Robinhood kids, et al.) fully distracted until it’s absolutely too late for action.

Even though this report from ZeroHedge gives all kinds of ‘signals’ saying we’re not there yet; It even goes as far as showing there’s no yield curve inversion. Of course that means ‘no risk’ of bear market.

Then going on to say, ‘None of these measures indicate a bear market is near’. I mean, you can’t make this stuff up.

What’s the table above (yesterday’s close) say about what’s really going on?

At this point it’s obvious the media are not going to discuss the on-going bear market in biotech, SPBIO.

Doing so, would require some kind of investigation as to why? That would open Pandora’s box and have everyone digging for truth … something to be avoided (censured) at all costs.

Amateurs always want (need) to know why.

Livermore was never concerned with the why. He looked for ‘what’. What is the price action doing now or what is it likely to do.

As Wyckoff said, ‘the why always comes out later … after the fact’

‘Why’ is a useless trading strategy.

However, in the case of biotech, we can take a good guess what the ‘why’ is all about.

Fall and Winter are very close now. As this interview with Stew Peters reveals, Fall and Winter are when we get the real picture of ‘side effects’.

Biotech is ahead of the pack on the downside and for good reason.

Positioning:

Positions have not changed except for additions of LABD as SPBIO declines and LABD heads higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

As a reminder, this site’s not interested in day trading or even swing trading unless that’s all the market offers.

No, we’re interested in positioning strategically.

This type of trading is modeled after the host’s twenty-four years of experience with aircraft flight test and certification.

A typical project would take five to seven years to complete; have a near infinite number of complex stages along the way with each one a profession unto itself.

At this juncture, biotech may be poised for the largest implosion ever seen in market history.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Pivots @ Day 34

3:10 p.m., EST

Today’s Action Confirms Time Sequence

Inverse biotech fund LABD confirms Friday’s update that ‘Day 34’ (from the June 28th low) could be a pivot point.

There’re at least four contact points on the left trend line shown above.

That line has been copied and moved to the right of the chart; showing a potential contact.

Stew Peters does another fantastic job accessing the truth with one of his latest interviews.

Interesting but then again, maybe not;

I’ve never seen such an on-going event result in so many people using Biblical standards to ether describe the battle, or to say this could be it. We need to keep our lampstands ready.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Tracks Fibonacci

12:20 p.m., EST

Biotech SPBIO and Inverse LABD In Fibonacci Sequence

Today is Fibonacci Day, 34

Like a metronome ticking away, keeping time, so too has the SPBIO index and inverse fund LABD.

From a personal anecdote situation, I’ve never seen an index hit every Fibonacci Day with an inflection point … all the way up to today: 34 Days.

To get to the analysis, we’ll start first with an unmarked daily chart of inverse fund LABD, below:

Pivots from the June 28th, low are in Fibonacci sequence:

If today is a reversal or subsequent pivot … verified by next week’s price action, LABD’s exhibiting an incredible adherence to Fibonacci time.

This can only happen if nobody’s watching.

As soon as traders/speculators catch on that something’s afoot, the sequence diffuses into chaos; that may or may not come back to order at a later date.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Breaking Down

10:57 a.m., EST

SPBIO, Biotech Verifies Channel

Inverse LABD, Moving Higher

Biotech (IBB, MRNA, SPBIO): Analysis

Looking over the updates of the past few weeks, you can see how the LABD channel (above) was formed.

The trend has repeated with successive moves higher and the right side channel line moved as a result of price action.

At this point, we may be there.

If LABD closes the day at its current location or higher, it’s a good sign of channel confirmation.

In addition, we have Moderna (MRNA) in the process of penetrating the trendline shown in yesterday’s update. If price action continues lower (as it’s doing in the early session), it could be on track to post a weekly reversal.

Separately, the IBB (ETF) index is already posting a weekly reversal. From a momentum standpoint, the new weekly high of IBB, has put that index in a potential bearish (MACD) divergence provided it closes lower from here for the week.

Positioning:

The bearish case has been building even back to David Stockman’s assessment of ‘2-Trillion Dollars of Bottled Air’, during the summer of 2015.

However, Stockman does not trade. So, to figure out if ‘this is it’, is not in his repertoire.

With current events as they are, one can intuitively conclude the fundamentals have not improved for the sector.

The backdrop is there for significant downside.

With that in mind my firm remains positioned max short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Any selling in LABD that’s occurred over the past month or so, was to adjust account(s) for maintenance (margin) requirements.

Once the index was finished with its adverse (SPBIO, higher, LABD lower) moves, we’re right back to establishing a full position.

This type of action has been going on for months.

It’s tedious and not exciting; exactly the opposite of what a typical YouTube viewer is looking for.

As a corollary, there’s no artificial (and profit limiting) requirement to show ‘Monthly’, Quarterly’ or whatever gains, to retail customers.

The financial press takes care of the retail side.

Some (very few) actually escape; finding themselves on sites like Van Metre’s, Weis’, and this one.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Moderna, goes Parabolic

8:07 a.m, EST

Trending @ 5,000,000 %, Annualized !!!

The MRNA daily chart shows price action trending higher at roughly 5-million percent on annualized basis.

This is the type of parabolic rise (and blow-off top) typically seen in commodities.

Obviously, you can’t keep 5-million percent going for long.

Moderna has now taken over Amgen (AMGN) as the largest cap in the IBB, biotech (ETF) index.

Amgen’s been trading since June 17, 1983. Moderna started just a little over two and a half years ago.

But let’s take a look at what’s really happening … what’s really going on behind the apparent good fortune of MRNA.

At one hour 22-miuntes and change, this link provides the most succinct account (to date) of the situation at hand.

Names, dates, places, patent numbers … it’s all there.

Pre-market trading in MRNA, shows a flat to slightly higher open.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.