No ‘Soft Landing’ or ‘Hard Landing’

There’s Only, ‘Collapse’

The ‘narratives’ are false.

There’s no ‘recovery’, no ‘soft landing’, no ‘hard landing’.

There’s no ‘housing boom’, no ‘inflation’, and maybe most of all, no (sustainable) ‘Electrical Vehicle’ market.

What there is …. is ‘collapse’.

Collapsing food supply, collapsing economy, collapsing real estate, collapsing employment and collapsing (electrical grid) infrastructure.

How do we know that?

The price action (the market) itself, says so.

Wyckoff, The Rest, and Gold

As stated in the last update, unlike other analysis methods, Wyckoff looks at what the market is saying about itself.

The market itself, defines the next likely course of action.

Two days ago, gold was used as the example.

Contrary to the ZeroHedge report linked in the prior update, Wyckoff analysis revealed the most probable direction for gold, was down.

The Gold (GLD) Market

The Fed announcement late Wednesday, resulted in a ‘blip’ higher for gold that stalled-out, the next day.

However, that announcement, may have confirmed a trend change in GLD.

Looking at the chart below, it’s possible that Wednesday identified a more aggressive trendline, lower.

Gold (GLD), Daily

It’s about an hour after the open.

This is how it looks for GLD.

The new trendline and trading channel are clear; trending lower at approximately -60%, annualized.

The next chart is a zoom of the pivot area.

If there ever was going to be a Fed ‘Pivot’, this was it. 🙂

The price increases being touted as ‘inflation’ are clearly the result of supply destruction.

You can’t have 90+ ‘food processing plant fires’ in the past year or so and not have it affect prices at the supermarket.

Same goes for crop failures or lack of harvest world-wide.

Summary

As always, anything can happen. Gold could reverse and mount some kind of rally.

If somehow, there’s a change of demand, it will show up on the tape (the chart) as a change of character.

So far, there is none.

Most likely direction remains to lower levels.

Parting Shot

Just to illustrate the point of ‘collapse’, we’ll leave off with this recent report from Scott Walters.

The real estate example shown is the River Oaks area of Houston … Highly affluent.

There’s no debate.

It’s a collapse, when a house has to drop $20 million, from $26.5-mil to $6.5-mil, and Still Not Sell!

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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