Waiting, For August 23rd

From a strategic standpoint, this past Friday was the end of the Quarter and possibly the lowest risk spot to short the semis (not advice, not a recommendation).

‘Low risk’, does not mean, ‘no risk’.

We’ll look at the chart below for the SOXX, but first some housekeeping on the Junior Miners, GDXJ.

As stated in the last update, if there was more GDXJ, upside, shorts (via JDST) would be exited. That’s what happened with an overall gain of + 3.57%, on the series (beginning 6/16/23).

Now, on to the next circus … Artificial Intelligence; more specifically, NVDA and its cohort, the SOXX.

Where’s The Money?

With the quarter over, money managers have dutifully shown they’re like everyone else, ‘investing’ in AI.

That’s out of the way, so let’s move on to the specifics:

‘Hey NVDA, where’s the $11 Billion?’

Referring back to the excellent investigation done by The Maverick, in his view, the $11 Billion, is “Fantasy”.

The tricky part from a chart standpoint, is to identify when or if that fantasy is going to be exposed.

Semiconductor SOXX, Weekly (Inverted)

We’ve taken the weekly chart of SOXX, and inverted it as if going long the leveraged inverse SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Downside force dissipating with each major thrust.

Last week was an ‘inside week’; price action could not make a new weekly low.

Couple that with end of quarter, potential ‘window dressing’ and this past Friday, may have been the lowest risk point, for shorting via SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Analysis … not Advice

This site cannot and will not give advice.

What it can do, is provide analysis and strategy so that you can make your own determination on the market.

With that said, the ‘heads-up’ for a top in the SOXX, was posted on June 17th, link here.

Since that time, the SOXX reversed down and has now come back to test.

Positioning

On Friday, the SOXX, was shorted by entering long the inverse fund SOXS, at 10.01.

Soft stop (trader discretion) for the position is the session low at 9.75, and hard stop (no excuses exit) at all-time low of 9.48 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The coming weeks may prove interesting. All eyes will be on that ‘$11-Billion’.

Show Me The Money

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279