When Was The Last Time?

The market gives us clues, we just need to know where to look.

Even before last Wednesday’s Fed announcement, bonds were already heading lower (rates higher), reversing the day before.

Tuesday through Friday had successive lower closes in long bonds, TLT.

All of that, to wind up the week ‘outside down’, or posting a ‘key reversal’.

Those don’t happen often.

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

The last outside-down weekly bar (in an uptrend) was over two years ago.

Bond prices declined 32%, before recovering.

In what seems to be a recurring theme, Force Index (like XBI, NVDA) is telling us there’s little-to-no-energy left to move prices higher (rates lower).

Of course, anything can happen, and reversals can themselves be reversed.

However, if bonds continue lower, it’s probably time to get the popcorn ready to see how the media paints the picture.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

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