Category Archives: Federal Reserve

Lowe’s Heads Lower

August 27, 2026 By in Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LOW, LOW-26-01, Real Estate, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Repeating Trendlines

It hasn’t been the same for Lowe’s since the earnings release, link here.

Price action spiked on the news, formed an upthrust, tested that print, and now, reversed lower.

In addition, as the chart shows, we have a trendline.

On top of that, the very same rate of downtrend (with channel) has happened before.

Lowe’s LOW, Daily

Today was a gap-lower open (see zoom area).

It’s possible, LOW will come back (tomorrow) and close the gap while still remaining in the downtrend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s not forget, Fed kabuki tomorrow morning. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Airbnb and Bonds (divergence)

August 26, 2026 By in ABNB, ABNB-26-05, Bonds, Elliott Wave, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Ox Talks, Real Estate, YouTube Black Swan 1 Comment

A Lot, All at Once

Potential shock ahead.

That’s one way to describe what could happen via ‘Looking for Black Swans’, with the chart provided by Elliott Wave International.

Ruh, Roh

Adding some more chaos to the situation, is this.

What’s going to happen when ‘fiddling’ doesn’t work; when everyone figures out the emperor has no clothes?

Airbnb ABNB, Daily

ABNB surged on earnings with a gap higher, wide price bar, and heavy volume.

It then posted several weeks of congestion which at this juncture, looks like a terminating wedge.

Short position located as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana at Target

August 25, 2026 By in CVNA, Federal Reserve, KMX, Transportation

While CarMax Grinds Higher

Three trading days ago, was this (emphasis added):

‘The higher [CVNA] open was not expected which now, ever so slightly, points bias to the upside.

Three days later, Carvana is now 8.38% higher at the Fibonacci 61.8% projection.

Since we started this series focusing on Fibonacci counts, we’ll continue.

This coming Thursday with Jobless Claims, is a Fibonacci 8-Days from the recent low on the 18th.

It’s also Fibonacci 21-Days from the deeper low on July 30th (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

AutoZone’s ‘Gap’ Performance

July 18, 2026 By in AZO, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Transportation

Probable (gap) Fill

Past performance is no guarantee, but it can tell us what’s probable.

In the case of AutoZone, the last time there was a significant gap lower open, 68-pts, was December 9th, 2025.

The update on January 9th of this year, posed the question, if the gap would be filled.

That gap was indeed filled and brings us to now.

That is, not 68-points, but an eye-watering 201-points.

AutoZone, AZO, Weekly

There are two ways to view the gap:

It’s a ‘breakaway’ gap, implying that AZO is not coming back. Or, it’s a ‘common’ gap, which is typically filled (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll throw into the mix, we have an upcoming Fed meeting late this month, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Narrows The Gap

July 14, 2026 By in Federal Reserve, NVDA, SOXX, Wyckoff

Is Tomorrow, The Day?

We have all kinds of Fed related kabuki on tap for tomorrow, link here.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, whatever the Fed says, the beige book or any other ancillary information, is of no-matter to what the market’s actually saying about itself.

In the case of Nvidia and by correlation, the SOXX, gap distance discussed yesterday, is being narrowed.

Nvidia, NVDA, Daily

With the caveat, in the markets, anything can happen, nonetheless we see if NVDA gets to the target level to close the gap, that level is also a 61.8%, Fibonacci retrace (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Downside Ready

March 18, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, SPBIO, XBI 3 Comments

Trading Channel

Biotech is one of those sectors that’s been elusive, hard to pin down.

The last update was in January, link here.

Note: that update identified the exact high (so far), for the sector; shown as ‘Day 1’, in the chart below.

Since then, it’s been what looks like mindless, sideways congestion; until yesterday, and today.

Before getting to the chart, recall there’s a Fed announcement coming up.

That may bring volatility, or it could be much ado about nothing.

Biotech XBI, Daily

There have been two contact points on the right side (supply side) of the channel; the most recent, during yesterday’s session.

As of this post, there are no short positions (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Whacked … Down 9%

January 28, 2026 By in CVNA, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Watch The Fed Announcement

The last update on Carvana did not see how it was going higher but gave a potential price target, anyway.

At the same time, that update said:

“Note: Today’s break higher, then a pullback, puts CVNA in up-thrust position (not advice, not a recommendation).“

As of this post, CVNA has accelerated lower, penetrating support levels; that puts it in (minor) ‘spring’ position.

It’s possible there might be higher action (staying below the session high) into, during, or just after the Fed announcement (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

S&P Top of Channel

January 27, 2026 By in Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

Catalyst, Tomorrow?

Is the S&P about to blow-up in a downside reversal or breakout into a blow-off top?

This link does a good job covering the current situation.

The catalyst or ‘excuse’ for either scenario may happen at the Fed announcement, tomorrow (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Hangs at The Wedge

December 10, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, LABD, LABD-25-20, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Waiting for The Fed?

The last update on biotech presented what was thought to be a reversal condition.

The huge downward thrust with volume, was taken as the clue, some large entity or entities (may) have just exited the market.

Well, it’s been seven trading days since then and it looks like we might be at a pivot point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

The reversal (Wyckoff up-thrust) was nearly textbook. The only thing absent, was a lower close for that day.

We’re now hovering at the edge.

The Fed announcement is just over an hour away.

Anything can happen.

MACD (magenta arrow) shows momentum has slowed and lines have crossed to the downside.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Rate Cut … Now, What?

September 17, 2025 By in Biotech, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-25-11, Michael Bordenaro, Positions, ShadowStats, SPBIO, XBI

Think, ‘Outside The Herd’

Michael Bordenaro, spells out the current jobs situation from a ‘boots on the ground’ perspective, link here.

From the video and comments, the agreement seems to be, unemployment is much higher than 5%.

Of course, if one is interested, more accurate job numbers (and inflation numbers) are at this link.

Separately, it appears that biotech XBI, has made a triple-top (not advice, not a recommendation).

More on that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279