Category Archives: SLV

Silver Miners, on the Edge

December 16, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SIL, SIL-25-01, SLV Leave a comment

Hovering, Just Above Resistance

Silver miners SIL, are at highs not seen in over a decade.

We already know, silver SLV, is at a Fibonacci projection and possible pivot, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s no stretch to say the media is screaming about silver ‘breaking its shackles’.

Oh, that’s just great.

If true, and with silver being such a thin market, then those ‘shackles’ may have kept the market organized, preventing massive, high volatility, low liquidity swings over the years.

I guess no one thought about that possibility. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Targets and Projections

December 13, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, Livermore, SLV, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Does The ‘Correction’, Start Now?

More than a few ‘engineering’ types trading the market, will talk about getting over the need to know, ‘why’.

Why does Fibonacci work?

Why does price action alternate?

Why is the market moving, or not moving; why, why, why?

Marsha, Marsha, Marsha

The media of course, wants everyone to focus on why.

If you’re focused on why, then you’re at least two steps removed from the truth.

Asking the wrong question (why) and then, looking for the wrong answer.

Both Livermore and Wyckoff, did not concern themselves with ‘why’ … but ‘what’?

With that said, let’s take a look at ‘what’s’ going on with silver, SLV.

Silver SLV, Daily Close

Shown, are the lows of August 2020 to last Friday’s close.

A whole week of updates (maybe more) could be spent on this one chart: there’s that much going on.

We have Wyckoff springs, up-thrusts, price action alternation, Fibonacci levels, time correlations, volume spikes, and the list goes on.

For today however, the main take-away is that Friday was outside-down (key reversal) on heavy volume.

That reversal (so far) took place at the exact 261.8%, Fibonacci projection (not advice, not a recommendation).

As said in yesterday’s update, we could also be in a new paradigm where silver just keeps on going.

Next upside Fibonacci projection (423.6%) is near 83.50.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s ‘Parabolic’ Phase

December 12, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SLV 1 Comment

Standard-Type ‘Blow Off’

Do we have the usual parabolic ‘blow-off’ move in silver (SLV), or have we entered into a new dimension, where it’s different this time?

From a traditional analysis standpoint, at this juncture (mid-session) it’s not looking good for the bulls.

Silver, SLV, just posted out-side down (if it closes here, or lower) and it’s met a measured move target from a terminating wedge.

In addition, as we’ll see in the chart, the current trendline is rising at approximately 5,600%, annualized.

That type of move can’t be sustained; that is, if we’re not in a ‘new dimension’. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SV, Daily

From a traditional standpoint, targets have been met; the day’s action (so far) is ‘key reversal’, outside down (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, the trendline could hold.

SLV, could also go to the stratosphere in a new paradigm, where nothing makes sense anymore … oh wait 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Boom & Bust

October 27, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SIZ25, SLV

Retrace Targets

We’ve just had an unprecedented launch to record levels, link here.

Eight trading days ago, price action pushed through levels not seen in two generations.

However, the next day, that all changed.

Looking at the front-month (December) futures contract SIZ25, price action itself, shows classic signs of a commodity blow-off top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Daily

Price tends to go where there are transactions.

From the March lows in 2020, to the (potential) blow-off top, the majority of transactions took place in the 21 – 24, area (i.e., ‘Support Zone’).

Remember, there’s that $1-Trillion in margin debt, just waiting to be ‘called’ if not so already.

Silver could get to retrace levels quickly or not at all.

The market itself will let us know the most probable outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s ‘Healthy’ Pull-Back

October 25, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, London Metal Exchange, SLV

Peak Euphoria?

Looking at the graphic, where are we with silver?

Did we get to euphoria?

With silver bars being flown to the London Metal Exchange (here) and old-timers saying they’ve ‘never seen anything like it’, it’s possible, just possible, we’ve reached euphoria (not advice, not a recommendation).

Well, that was until last week’s breakdown.

Has it all-of-a-sudden moved to anxiety; saying it’s just a ‘healthy’ pull-back?

Pull-back or not, the chart of ETF tracking fund SLV, shows a nascent trend-line … down.

Silver ETF, SLV, Daily

There’s also a possible channel.

We may find out as early as tomorrow night, when Sunday futures open, if the above potential(s) are in effect.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Morning After

October 20, 2025 By in Banking, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, KRE, Positions, SLV, UBER, UBER-25-04, XLF, XLF-25-08 2 Comments

Sort Of

It’s not really the morning after but being the day after Friday’s action, we’ll call it even.

Two shorts closed and three opened.

Both the XLF, and UBER, shorts were closed; one with profit, one not. Then, three more opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

As stated in the comments on this previous post, it’s possible the banking index KRE, is not going to make it to Fibonacci Day 34, this Wednesday.

Time counts are always secondary to price action.

Next up, is the silver market.

It’s a no-brainer that something’s ready to break. The press and YouTubers, et al., would have you believe that were finally ‘putting it to the man’. The ‘paper manipulation’ is over, so it goes.

Mabe that’s right this time around.

However, I’ll stick with the market-makers that have been in control since the buttonwood tree. 🙂

More updates to come with charts and positions.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Uber … The Wheels Come Off

October 16, 2025 By in Banking, Ed Dowd, GLD, Gold & Silver, KRE, Positions, SLV, TRV, TRV-25-01, XLF, XLF-25-08 1 Comment

Waiting for The Close

Something’s happened to the banks, XLF, KRE; both down hard.

Gold, GLD has launched parabolic, typical of blow-off moves.

Meanwhile bonds are higher (Ed Dowd told us to watch those), insurance companies hit and then, there’s Uber.

Uber, UBER, Daily

Uber at all-time highs for weeks before breaking down.

It’s now penetrated support.

There’s likely to be an attempt to ‘spring’ off that penetration (expected to fail).

If it’s going to happen, watch the close.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Top of The Dow

October 10, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SLV, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Where The Risk is Least

The ‘risk’ on a short position in the Dow (DIA), is yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s very early in the pre-market (7:48 a.m., EST), DIA is trading slightly higher (at 464.34), but anything can happen between now and the open.

Massive Margin Call

The Trillion Dollar margin call has to come from somewhere; maybe yesterday’s action in the metals and miners is going to force everyone’s hand.

Silver spiked, outside-down, on heavy volume.

With that said, on to the chart.

Dow 30 DIA, Daily

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.

The chart also shows an apparent volume climax, a typical ‘last gasp’ market action.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

July 13, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SLV

Silver’s Breakout

There’s been plenty of coverage over the past week, about silver’s apparent ‘breakout’.

We may have a sustainable breakout, or there may be something else in the works.

As of this post, silver futures opened essentially unchanged, edging slightly higher (as of 7:04 p.m., EST).

With that said, we’ll look at the longer-term view of silver and specifically, the ETF tracking fund, SLV.

Silver SLV, Weekly

The smaller (magenta) wedge pattern at left of the chart, shows a sustained breakout.

That move culminated in the blow-off top, late April 2011.

From the initiation of the breakout (week of 8/27/10), to the first retrace was a Fibonacci 8-Weeks of higher highs, and higher closes.

There was a small amount of congestion for one month, in January 2011. Then, SLV continued on higher.

On a monthly scale, silver SLV, essentially went straight up for a Fibonacci 8-months with only one month lower, a total duration of 9-months.

You can almost see where this is going.

With the current ‘breakout’ (if we’re in one), the market may post an impulsive move, or alternate (from the prior wedge breakout) with some kind of choppy action.

As the chart implies, we’re at The Danger Point®, where price action’s hovering between a wedge pattern breakout, or throw-over.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 29, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Car Questions Answered, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, SLV, UNG, WMT, WMT-25-03

Bonds & The Economy

Not getting much attention in the media yet, is what looks like a slow (nascent), upside reversal, of long-bonds.

Here’s an excellent description of what’s going on with the yield curve, link here.

However, there’s one potential error (depending on data used), in the link above, the job market.

Real unemployment numbers can be found here.

It says, we’re already at ‘depression era’ levels of 25% unemployment.

If anyone’s skeptical of alternate numbers, the official numbers have already been proven to be ‘in-question’.

One of the best examples of ‘official’ data, or lack thereof, is this report.

What’s a million jobs or so, between friends. 🙂

With mass layoffs starting, also, here and here, that 25% number above, is likely to increase significantly.

We can even add some anecdotal evidence, link here.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

The price action of the market itself, is telling us where to go for opportunity.

Upside may still be there, if one wants to position in the A.I. bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, for over eighteen months, this site’s been profitable only positioning to the short-side (UNG, the exception) and sees no reason to join the crowd buying into the A.I. mania (not advice not a recommendation).

The current focus is on WMT, a sleeper, not-doing-much, for years, that may be about to get interesting.

Currently short as WMT-25-03, with stop at last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279