Category Archives: Gold & Silver

Deep ‘Kimchi’ Update … Newmont

May 11, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Michael Bordenaro, NEM, SBUX, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge Leave a comment

Setting Up For ‘Breakout’ or, ‘Digging-In’ …?

Gold’s near all-time highs, silver’s rebounded, testing recent highs; yet Newmont’s at a paltry 23.6%, retrace.

So, you tell me. What’s likely to happen to Newmont, if gold or silver head back lower, even just a little bit?

That dude in the picture, needs to keep on diggin’. 🙂

Wyckoff, In-The-Know

Years ago, Wyckoff told us not to pay any attention to the financial press, the local circus.

However, that does not mean he didn’t know what was going on. He did, and sometimes down to the penny.

We don’t know for sure what’s (really) happening with Newmont and the mining sector but among other things, it might have something to do with this, this, and this.

Even so, price action’s the truth; let’s look at our chief cook and bottle washer’s progress since the last update.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

The chart has expanded the Force Index (middle panel) for better clarity.

Going back to the last update, it had this to say:

“A reasonable expectation is NEM, retraces, testing the wide bar and volume before continuing to the downside or moving back higher to a breakout.”

Price action has done exactly that. It came down to test the wide (4/25/24) bar and then back up to resistance, where we are now.

The only thing missing at this point, is the breakout or reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Show Me, The Money

Anyone with two Latte’s rubbing together, knows the economy may (already) be in full-blown collapse.

Anecdotal (and factual) evidence of that can be found here, here and here.

Adding, Nemont itself is not doing well as evidenced by this recent (February) article about dividend cuts, asset sales.

Seems like everybody’s looking around for cash.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part IV

May 3, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SLV, Wyckoff, GDX, GDXJ, JDST, DUST, zsl, David Weis Leave a comment

Below Resistance

When the upside comes to a halt, it’s the ‘evil manipulator’s’ fault.

At least, that’s the common lament from our friends and pundits, alike. 🙂

Just a reminder, the markets have always been manipulated.

Back in the day, Wyckoff understood this. He sought to find out through price action, the desired (market) outcome of those ‘manipulators’.

By using his technique and reading the tape, the most probable direction for silver (SLV) was either sideways congestion or downside reversal.

The last update, link here, had this to say:

“If we’re in an up-thrust about, to reverse lower or consolidate, this is the type of market behavior to expect (not advice, not a recommendation).”

From then, we see SLV has moved lower.

Silver SLV, Weekly

Can reversals themselves, be reversed?

Could SLV, somehow gain traction and move decidedly higher? As David Weis used to say, “Anything can happen”.

However, at this juncture, we have SLV closing lower the past two weeks. Volume was steady and elevated, indicating downside pressure.

Separately, the miners are struggling (especially the Juniors GDXJ) at resistance.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Struggle At The Top

May 1, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Interest Rates, Wyckoff, GDX, GDXJ, JDST, DUST, Federal Reserve 1 Comment

Looking Behind The Curtain

Did rates get lowered? … No? … Not Yet?

Well, maybe next time.

Good thing we’re not wasting time, talking about the circus rolling into town every two months or so.

It’s hard enough ignoring the ‘experts’ to remain focused on price action and the truth.

This update will be brief, self-explanatory.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly Close

Gold is near all-time highs but Silver along with Platinum and Palladium are far below their respective highs.

This is not what you would expect to see in a hyper-inflation scenario.

The Juniors have been struggling at the axis line, now resistance line, for several weeks.

Today’s non-event, may be the catalyst, taking the punch bowl away from the six-week rally (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Deep Kimchi Decision

April 27, 2024 By in Biotech, Bloor Street Capital, Ed Dowd, Genesis 41, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, NEM, Real Estate, XBI 3 Comments

Time To Round Up, The Loonies?

If there’s one market attracting huge numbers of grifters, carpetbaggers, peddlers, and all-around crazies, it’s precious metals.

I’ve been hearing from this crowd, ‘the government’s going to collapse, the dollar’s going to collapse’, since the early 1980s.

As said many times before, I like precious metals as much as the next guy.

However, from a strategy standpoint, with each passing day, we see it’s the food supply (here, and here) that comes first (not advice, not a recommendation).

What’s currently taking place is so much more complicated (in my opinion) than just ‘stacking’.

Let’s not forget the flood of ‘fake’ or ‘diluted‘ precious metals and other chicanery; like having your coin-shop bank account closed for no apparent reason.

Well, we have to keep the loonies on the path which brings us to our case in point, Newmont Mining, NEM.

Newmont, Good News is Bad News

Gold price has moved higher over the past four to five months and expectedly, that’s been noted in Newmont’s latest Quarterly release, link here.

NEM, stock price at ‘nine-month highs’, what’s not to like?

It’s when we look at the chart, we see a different story.

Newmont Mining, NEM, Weekly

After all the ‘good news’, NEM has only retraced an anemic 23.6%, of its overall downside move.

Note the close on Friday was right at the 23.6% level, giving it even more significance.

This level has also become an ‘axis line’ as exhibited by price action going back to August of 2022.

By The Numbers

When looking through the major sectors, retrace (and reversal) from 23.6%, is becoming more frequent.

Two other indices posting and reversing from that level (measured from recent highs), are biotech XBI, and real estate, IYR.

NEM, What’s Next?

Thursday, 4/25, was a wide bar with heavy volume.

We’ve stopped at the retrace, which is also resistance, confirmed by price action in late December. ’23.

A reasonable expectation is NEM, retraces, testing the wide bar and volume before continuing to the downside or moving back higher to a breakout (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part III

April 20, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Elsa Kurt, Gold & Silver, Greg Hunter, NVDA, SLV 1 Comment

Less Volume … Less Energy

Public Service Announcement

Before we get started, recognize there’s a huge public service available with the (media, YouTubers, et al.) discussion on potential gold, silver, rally ‘to the moon’.

Now that Nvidia (NVDA) has posted a reversal, it’s likely the bull market, if not completely over, is seriously damaged.

As Ed Dowd, former BlackRock fund manager suggested, (link here), when the market turns lower, everything’s likely to head down … everything; at least, initially.

The public service: We get to see (in real time) which analysis method is best suited to determine the truth of what’s really happening.

With that, let’s move on to the chart.

Silver SLV, Tracking ETF, Weekly

If this is an initial thrust to move higher, it’s losing energy; narrow range (weekly) bar with volume contracting.

If we’re in an up-thrust about, to reverse lower or consolidate, this is the type of market behavior to expect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Delusional In … Delusional Out

Like the Artificial Intelligence (AI) delusion, hyped-up beyond all conceivable expectations, it takes a while to deflate.

This past Friday may have been the start.

So too, it could be with precious metals.

If indeed, this time is different, and were in a sustained, long term (years-long) rally for silver (SLV), then look for the character of the price action to change.

One potential example of that would be, successive gaps higher of $5/oz., $10/oz., or more.

A real bull market breakout (like the S&P in 1995), does not let you get aboard comfortably.

Note: That breakout in ’95, was a complete shock to the typical market watcher.

The S&P had oscillated in a trading range for a year before launching decidedly higher in early ’95. In that sense, the breakout is/was the complete opposite of the ‘long awaited’ (potential) bull run in precious metals.

The Mood Has Shifted

Anecdotally, the mood appears to have shifted.

If we’ve just past the top in the market (S&P, Dow, SOXX), then expect the social construct to become unhinged.

Here’s just one example of how that looks.

If you thought it was irrational on the way up … what’s it going to be like on the way down?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Reversal or Recovery?

April 18, 2024 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Prechter, Wyckoff

The Shills Emerge

‘…. and reminds you, she was only in it, for the money ….’ Steve Goodman

Seems like any time gold or silver blips higher, the shills come out; a new book to sell, more metals to peddle.

Obviously, what’s presented on this site, is neither; we’re searching for the truth, market truth, nothing else.

When looking at Junior Mining (ETF) Index, GDXJ, once again, it’s at The Danger Point®.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Fibonacci 8-Day

The 8-Day chart gives us a clear view of the action.

There was an up-thrust during the week of April 14th, 2023.

Now, a Fibonacci 55 (-2) weeks later, another one during the week of April 12th.

Last Time, Is Not, This Time

The up-thrust in April ’23, resulted in a steady but choppy downside action until the bottom, February, this year.

Using Prechter’s ‘rule of alternation’, whatever happens from here, it’s not likely to be what happened last time.

So, essentially, we have two potential outcomes; strengthening with continued upside, or a swift decline back to support levels (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part II

April 12, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Inflation, SLV, Usual Suspects 1 Comment

More Volume … Less Net Distance

It’s been about a week since the last update on silver and the ‘usual suspects’ are out in force … again.

One of these days … Alice!

I like the metals as much as the next guy, but that doesn’t help when it’s time to stay focused on what the market’s (really) saying.

This week’s volume in SLV, was more than last week by about 16%, but net distance traveled (at the close) was far less … about 74%, less net travel … ruh, roh.

Silver SLV, Tracking ETF, Weekly

There’s a wide price spike for the week but it’s the close, that’s the important part, holding just above resistance.

Obviously, what happens next is important.

Typical market behavior for silver suggests we’re at or near a top and due for some kind of downside move if not a complete reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Different This Time

If this time really is different and we’re in the long-awaited hyperinflation move, we’ll probably find out soon.

If that’s the case, meaning, it really is different, one would expect the behavior of the metals to change; like silver holds its current level, moves higher, or starts congesting for another up-wave.

So, let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas … The ‘Sleeper’

April 6, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Natural Gas, UNG, Wyckoff

Any Bulls Left?

It’s all bearish on the Nat-gas front.

Way back in 2001, it was all bearish on the gold front as well; lows were around $254/oz. – $255/oz.

How did that work out?

No, Nat-gas is not gold but at this point, it’s possibly just as ignored as gold was, then.

The strategy or potential reasons for a rally in Nat-gas, have already been addressed here and here.

So, we’ll cut to the chase, looking at the proxy, UNG.

Natural Gas, UNG, Daily

It’s possible, the March 27th, penetration of support (covered here) and subsequent recovery, is a Wyckoff spring set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

If we’re in a spring with the wedge in-effect, meaning, the market’s not going to morph into another structure, then it’s likely, Friday’s action was a test of both the spring and the wedge (breakout).

Supporting the ‘test’ scenario, we have Friday’s action pulling back to the lows; volume contracts by over 37%, when compared to the day prior, Thursday.

Of course, this is all very nuanced action and can be blown away at the next session.

However, as with our gold example, no one was looking for a major, long-term reversal at the time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top?

April 4, 2024 By in David Weis, Ed Seykota, Gold & Silver, Silver Collapse, SLV, Wyckoff, zsl 4 Comments

Know Your Market

There’s been something wrong with the precious metal’s, gold and silver, for years.

Gold and silver used to move essentially in tandem, over the long term; not anymore.

This link shows there’s a huge divergence in the correlation between the two metals. Gold has launched higher, while silver has lagged.

Right around June of 2020, the correlation began to break down. What else was going on (or being ‘rolled out’) around June of 2020?

Recall, silver’s primarily an industrial metal; affected much more (than gold) by manufacturing demand.

Strategy First

Shown by the market itself, direct correlation between silver and gold no longer applies (or has somehow changed into a new construct), silver’s not confirming the ‘inflation’ shtick, possibly influenced more by industrial demand.

Thus, we have the following.

Silver SLV, Weekly

Just listening to what the market’s telling us, it says, when SLV, reaches a top and inflection point (to reverse lower), it tends to print heavy upside volume bar(s).

Looking at the chart, price action’s all over the place. Wide bars, volume spikes, the gamut.

Markets like this are unstable and usually can’t mount a sustained move in either direction.

Typically, if there’s going to be a breakout (or breakdown), price action tends to get tight, or get itself into a ‘coil’.

Even so, we need to account for the market itself.

Having traded silver futures contracts during the last run up and meltdown from 2011 – 2014, the silver market is thin and likes to ‘spike’.

That (spike) behavior is confirmed by Ed Seykota in Market Wizards and David Wies in his (formerly) daily market updates.

We may be at the beginning of a set-up for a Wyckoff up-thrust (above resistance) and then reversal.

A possible measured move for SLV (to be covered in another update), puts the tracking ETF, right around 25.60, about 2-pts. from where we are now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Breakout or Fake-Out ?

March 16, 2024 By in Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Inflation, Sovereign Default, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

Everybody’s, Been Waiting

How long has it been?

How long have we heard incessant rants, gold and silver hyper-launch is imminent?

Sure, I like gold as much as the next guy. It feels good when you hear the ‘clink’ of real money in your hands.

However, one has to remain unbiased and look at what price action, the market is actually telling us.

Strategy First

Since December 2020, this site has proposed, we’re in a situation similar to Genesis 41; it’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

In this post (two years ago), an observation, ‘stackers’ may be forced to liquidate just to survive.

Now, we have this and this. On that second link, the comments tell the real story:

‘… people are selling their silver because they need cash.’

With that, let’s look at the chart of gold, GLD.

Gold GLD, Weekly Bar

We’ve seen it before, the set-up, The Danger Point®

Let’s add some insight to this picture, hidden in the chart; we have the following:

Look at how much time it’s taken GLD, to go from the bottom of the range to the top; longer each time and with less energy, shown by the decline in (upside) volume.

Longer & Less

Takes longer and less energy.

Still, that does not guarantee anything. Gold cold just keep on grinding higher.

However, probabilities suggest (the chart itself) we may be at or near, a pivot to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279