Category Archives: SRS-23-03

Nat-Gas & Real Estate

November 14, 2023 By in IYR, Natural Gas, Positions, Real Estate, SRS, SRS-23-03, UNG, UNG-23-05

Stopped-Out

Sometimes you feel like kicking the computer.

In a way, today is, and is not, that day.

The IYR short, SRS-23-03, was stopped-out for a loss of 0.32-pts, about – 1.68%.

Not too bad, but not the desired outcome (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post (2:10 p.m., EST), the UNG trade (UNG-23-05) is testing its reversal, covered in this update.

Nat-Gas, UNG, Daily

Coming back to test a reversal as shown above, is normal market behavior. One just has to wait for the market to work itself out.

Positioning

The initial position UNG-23-05, remains intact with a hard Stop at 6.29 (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, after today’s session, that stop is likely to be moved to the day’s low; currently UNG 6.43 (not advice, not a recommendation.

Any further downside testing after today points probability to a trade failure.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate’s Massive Channel

November 11, 2023 By in IYR, Livermore, Positions, Real Estate, SRS, SRS-23-03

Trading Channel, A ‘Mile-Wide’

We all know something’s coming; we just don’t know what.

A century ago, Livermore said, ‘surprises typically come in the direction of trend’.

Back in August, this update said if certain conditions were met (trend breakdown), then real estate has ‘enormous downside potential’.

Since then, events have unfolded to increase the probability of downside for IYR (not advice, not a recommendation).

The weekly chart of IYR spells it out. We’re in a (potential) massive downside trading channel.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

From the left side low (October 2022), to the right-side test two weeks ago, is Fibonacci 55 weeks, plus one week; well within an acceptable margin of error for timing.

Anything can happen and IYR could somehow power higher into more testing or a channel breakout.

Until then, positioning in this sector remains as follows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

The current short position via Leveraged Inverse Fund SRS, is identified as SRS-23-03.

The initial entry was documented here and here.

Hard Stop is SRS 19.25, with a Soft Stop (discretionary) at SRS 19.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of Friday’s close, initial position profit is about + 5.7%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate’s Failed Test

November 9, 2023 By in IYR, Positions, Real Estate, SRS, SRS-23-03

If … It Holds

We’re on Fibonacci Day five of the real estate reversal; this could be the turning point for the next leg lower.

When looking at the daily close of IYR (below), it’s clear, if yesterday was the attempt to move higher, as of this morning, that attempt, has failed.

If downside price action holds, we have IYR only able to retrace a Fibonacci 23.6%, of the down move from the November 3rd high; very weak indeed.

Real Estate IYR, Daily Close

The initial move lower was a Fibonacci three days.

Then, the test (yesterday) and now today, a new high of 0.01-pt, (from Tuesday’s high) before posting lower.

Anything can happen.

A retrace of only 23.6%, is rare.

Typical retrace amounts are 38.2%, and 50%.

The action we are observing, could just be a set-up for a future, higher retrace.

Positioning

In the meantime, I am remaining short this sector via Leveraged Inverse Fund SRS (not advice, not a recommendation).

That trade is noted as: SRS-23-03.

The position stop has been moved from SRS 18.70 to SRS 19.25, with today’s low of SRS 19.79, as a discretionary stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Santa Clause Rally?

November 4, 2023 By in IYR, Positions, Real Estate, SRS, SRS-23-03, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Here We Go, Again

In the markets, anything can happen.

There could be a sustainable rally into Christmas but is that the highest probability?

When looking at the chart of real estate IYR, the short answer is (most likely) no.

Strategy Review

Back in August, potential for the breakdown of a fourteen-year-long, trendline was identified.

Since then, we’ve had that break.

Then, this past week was a test of the breakdown.

As we’ll see in the chart below, from a trading standpoint, we’re at The Danger Point®

Price action closed the week hovering just below resistance in what looks like a sharp short-covering rally.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

As shown, a short position was opened via Leveraged Inverse Fund SRS, as price action was backing away from the blue-line resistance area (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll find out at the next open, if going short was a good idea or not. 🙂

The important part is, we’re at resistance.

If IYR, is to continue to rally, it would probably need to spend time at that resistance absorbing all the sellers.

If so, that gives the speculator a hint, higher prices are ahead and to exit the trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … The Breakdown

November 3, 2023 By in IYR, Positions, Real Estate, SRS, SRS-23-03 2 Comments

Now, It Gets Interesting

Back in August, this post identified the potential for a long-term breakdown in real estate, IYR.

Since then, IYR broke its trendline.

As of today, we have a potential test of that break.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly Close

The chart shows the breakdown from the wedge and now, an underside test.

Subsequent updates will get closer-in on the action (daily chart) to show the breakdown and test.

Positioning

Right around mid-session, IYR price action appeared to be making its highs. At that point, a short position via Leveraged Inverse Fund SRS, was initiated at SRS 19.02 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade identification is, SRS-23-03.

The stop has yet to be determined (will be set next session) but is likely going to be today’s SRS low @ SRS 18.70 for a ‘risk’ of about, 0.32-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279