Sell The Rumor

Natural gas price action (UNG) could be a case of sell the rumor, buy the news.

The EIA Natural Gas Report comes out at 10:30 a.m. EST, this Thursday. 

The 61.8%, retrace level (from the June low to the August top) for UNG is around the 11.04, area.

If UNG continues lower in the next session and does not make significant headway (down), it may have found a bottom ahead of the report.

Note that price action can get volatile for a few minutes after the release.

Nat-gas is similar to silver in that regard … stop run attempts (and spikes) are the norm.

We’ve already come off a long term low during June this year. Now, we have seen a recent Sign Of Demand (using a Wyckoff term) during the past week … it all suggests bias to the upside.

Expandable version of the chart is here.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Natural Gas (UNG) Channel

Trading lower in the pre-market session is UNG.

The weekly chart shows obvious hits on a left side trend line. 

Moving that line to the right edge, there may be a hit/confirmation during the upcoming session.

An obvious stop level (not advice, not a recommendation) would be last week’s low at UNG:  11.51

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Winter of Discontent: Pre-Market Update

Update (9/9/20, 8:11 a.m. EST): UNG, shows pre-market action trading higher, +2.11%, as expected.

Original post (9/8/20):

Natural gas and more specifically, the tracking fund UNG is at its trend line; A trend line that’s been in-effect since July 31st, this year.

The Winter of Discontent post on natural gas, indicated a major long-term reversal.  That analysis was complete with a test location (shown on the chart below).

It’s important to note, the test level was identified thirteen (trading) days in advance.

There was plenty of time to monitor price action, perform additional research and generate a supporting case before the test zone was reached.

UNG subsequently tested that level and never looked back.

Now, UNG has penetrated support (at the 13.00-area) and contacted its July trend line at the same time.

Essentially, in Wyckoff terms, it’s in spring position with the added technical condition of being at trend.  For more on Wyckoff “springs”, see this publication.

This exact point is the ‘danger point’.

If UNG does not immediately bounce higher (at the next session), the trend may be broken and we’re right back into a possible continuation of the bear market that’s been in effect for years.

It should be noted that ‘danger points’ are also the location of lowest risk.  Verification or failure of the move is not far away in either market direction.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.