What ? … There’s No ‘Pivot’ ?

There Never Was

Well, another financial media lie has come and gone.

As Jerrimiah Babe says, time stamp 6:05, at this link:

“The good times are over.”

The Dow Jones was down over 1,000 points on the day and finished (along with the S&P, NASDAQ) right at the session lows.

Typical action for the markets under such conditions, is a follow-through at the next trading session, Monday.

Recall, it’s been presented many times on this site (Holiday Turns), major reversals tend to occur just before, during, or just after, a holiday week.

The 2008, countertrend reversal took place on the Monday (5/19/08), leading into Memorial Day Weekend. The big one in 1929, was the Tuesday (9/3/29) following the Labor Day Weekend.

The current reversal (discussed below), if it holds, has come a couple weeks early in the ‘holiday’ window.

It’s possible because of the massive size of this monster, that a week or two does not make a difference.

Let’s look at the Dow 30 and its perfect Wyckoff Up-Thrust, Reversal, and Test.

Dow 30, DIA Daily Close

Daily Close with Fibonacci retrace levels identified.

A close-in look on the reversal area.

Looking at the zoom-chart above, we had a Wyckoff Up-Thrust that touched 61.8%, then declined sharply before coming back to test at 50%.

After the test was another sharp decline. One can make the case, the up-thrust has been tested.

Continued (overall) downside is the higher probability with a ‘no Fed pivot’ providing the tailwind.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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