Random Notes

The usual suspects for the week.

No. 1

You can’t make this stuff up.

CDC declares PCR test unsuitable for identifying ‘The Speck’.

For those new to this site, it’s called ‘The Speck’ (to avoid censorship, and) as a spoof from Horton Hears a Who … the speck on the clover

The speck on the clover represents how big the supposed ailment really is … virtually non-existent.

Back to the CDC.

Screen-shot of website, below:

Actual link to the website, is here.

Turns out Dr. Coleman was right (never doubted him). It’s just the re-branded, seasonal flu.

One more brick in the wall for biotech.

No. 2

You’re going to need a root cellar.

The No. 1, item shows the wheels already set in motion.

If the available data is even half-correct (pathogenic priming), it will be years, if not decades before the oscillations from this event dampen out.

So, it’s prepare for the long game.

Here are two links (here and here) describing effective, low cost root cellar designs.

No. 3

Here we go again.

It’s back to Mask on, Mask off and what the ‘experts‘ say.

What variant are we on now … Epsilon?

No. 4

Quote of the week:

You have to go where the food is as it wont be picked packaged or transported. Without food everything else is irrelevant.

The big “joke” is that people actually believe the plandemic is over when is is only just getting going, they have seen to that.

Normal is never coming back so the sooner people REFUSE to participate in what is being forced on us the faster we may have our lives back.

Unfortunately an overwhelming majority are not able to think for themselves and eventually lapse into insanity due to the psychological warfare they voluntarily watch every day.

Link to the above quote (posted in the comments) is here.

Yes, ‘Without food … ‘ How’s that stack of silver coming?

No. 5

Think like a Texan

J.P. Sears, shows us how it’s done.

No. 6

Bartering?

If it gets to bartering, Glenfiddich is the most recognizable and available 12-yr old Scotch.

No. 7

Administering The Mark

If it really is the mark, it’s nice to see ‘the church’ has become so deceived (and vile), they are helping lead the effort.

The video above, shows someone that’s collapsed just after injection; right on the steps of ‘the church’.

“And then will I profess unto them, I never knew you: depart from me, ye that work iniquity.”

Time stamp 0:02 at this link confirms the location.

No. 8

Let them eat trash

Incompetence runs the city.

Brokerage firm Schwab’s headquarters has officially pulled out of San Fran for Dallas … anyone else left?

If we’re really in the first stages of ‘balkanization’, it’s clear that Texas will be a major player.

No. 9

The one difference between ‘Conspiracy’ and fact, is ‘Time’.

No. 10

Food prices surge … supply chain about to break (if not already).

At time stamp 8:49, J.B. reports that food prices in Lebanon have increased 670%, in about two years.

Coffee futures moving up as a result of crop failures in Brazil.

If you already have precious metals … great.

If not, they may be about to come on sale in exchange for food.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

The usual suspects for the week.

No. 1

Let’s start with some comedy

The tree frog on the little boy is the best.

No. 2

So now, it’s ‘Monkeypox’

Of course, it needs to be in Texas

One has to wonder if the Oligarchs are going to make an attempt at lockdown … for our protection. Or, maybe it’s ‘for the children’.

Here’s just a little reminder of how small town Texas deals with community organizers.

Time stamp 0:13.

Hey, I’ll bet you I went to a better school than you went to.

I went to Berkeley, they didn’t screw my mind.’

You can’t make this stuff up.

At least in this town, the police are still protecting the citizenry.

Just think about how pissed these ‘Bubba’s’ are going to be when they find out Trump is part of the cabal as well.

No. 3

The boy that cried ‘wolf’

Nobody agrees with everything Jerimiah Babe has to say.

If you’re watching his videos, then you’re there to get some additional insight.

Comments to his uploads are usually friendly and complimentary … or may have a suggestion or two.

However, when you see something like this, it’s the mark of the unprepared; possibly one who’ll be an early casualty in the coming troubles:

But as the days of Noe were, so shall also the coming of the Son of man be. 38For as in the days that were before the flood they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noe entered into the ark, 39And knew not until the flood came, and took them all away;

Noah spent anywhere from 55 – 75 years building the ark (now resting at the base of Ararat).

It was probably good sport to go down and hurl insults (like that above) … after all, nothing’s happened … yet.

No. 4

Plan, Prepare, then Win

Zig Ziglar probably said it best:

‘First, you have to plan to win. Then, you have to prepare to win. Then, you have to actually do the winning.’

The David Weis story from yesterday, is an example of implementing this approach:

First, I planned to win (being mentored by Weis):

The Plan:

What was going to be required to not be dismissed out of hand as unsuitable material.

Dr. Elder (a friend of Weis) had already shown that getting into a trader camp was an application/approval process.

Therefore, getting an audience (with these professionals) was not a done deal … it didn’t matter how much money you had.

I set out to educate myself as much as possible on Weis:

The Preparation:

Weeks before I sent off an e-mail asking if he still provided mentoring, I had memorized his part of the Elder video. Watching his section at least 20-times or more.

I also searched the internet for any technical articles he had published. I came across (and purchased) a two part series on Wyckoff and trading bonds.

That article had appeared in Stocks & Commodities Magazine in the early 1980s.

I purchased the Wyckoff Trading Course that he discussed in the video. My e-mail to him included those facts.

I had done my homework and was serious about the craft.

There’s no doubt, the up-front effort increased my chances of ‘passing’ the interview.

I was prepared to win.

The Winning:

Yesterday’s anecdote is proof of the actually winning.

Towards the end of the mentoring series, Weis asked me if I would give up my spot for others waiting in line.

I did and the sessions were never completed. That’s a story for another time.

No. 5

Ahead of the pack

The anecdote above brings up an important fact that’s also repeated in videos from Jeremiah Babe and Dan, iAllegedly:

Be ahead of the pack.

It may be the entire system of ‘woke’, along with supported and protected stupidity (disguised as ‘diversity’), is about to collapse in on itself.

If so, it will be messy and chaotic.

Being ahead of the pack gives you options. You can take action while no one else is around. There’s no apparent alarm.

Preparations can be performed more easily and without the stress that comes from running with the herd.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Economic Collapse … The Model

1:44 p.m., EST

South Africa shows us how it’s done

‘Hey J.B., when’s the collapse?’

That’s a comment often seen on any number of Jerimiah Babe’s updates; openly mocking his doom and gloom assessment.

Whether he’s at the local homeless camp in Los Angeles, or in his home next to the golf course, the question remains the same;

‘J.B., When’s the collapse?’

Sometimes his response (if he’s at home) is to turn his head to the window and say “Have you looked outside?”

A good number of American’s have become so pathetically weak, ignorant, and just (to overuse the word) plain stupid, they expect to sit on their newly built patio deck (using last year’s stimmie check) and observe the fall of the U.S. from the comforts of their own back-yard.

Of course, there are some (including this author) who are first generation Americans. Their parents and grandparents emigrated (or escaped) from communist countries.

Those people do not have to ‘wake up’; they were never asleep.

Coming Attractions:

South Africa gives us the model for what’s in store … at least for sections of the U.S.; probably starting first with the blue sates (we’ll see).

You might say, it’s already happening in Portland.

One news item of note shown in this report from South Africa, is neighborhood patrols.

If that’s coming our way, then we’ll need to get outfitted (if not already). Here’s a good place to start.

All of which, brings us to the markets.

Bonds (TLT):

Yesterday’s update showed how the so-called ‘bloodbath‘ was actually a set-up to go long (not advice, not a recommendation).

It didn’t take long for bonds (TLT) to give a Weis method ‘buy signal’. That happened at the open today.

The bull move in bonds does not confirm the ‘re-opening’ hype. That in itself, should be all that’s needed to make decisions.

It is interesting to note; on sites like ZeroHedge, there’s no talk whatsoever that biotech has (already) reversed and is leading the way down.

As of this post, inverse biotech fund LABD, is up about 38%, from its lows of late June. It appears poised for yet another breakout; lower for SPBIO and higher for LABD.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

The usual suspects for the week

No. 1

Next Up: Power Outage

National Guard’s in training for nationwide power outages.

The June 26th post, finished with this quote:

‘Most people think the worst is over when it’s not even started.’

That exemplifies the mindset required. This economic and societal decline is going to be a very long ordeal.

Surviving it, is like the two guys spooking a bear in the woods.

“We’re not going to out-run him” one says. The other guys says, “I don’t need to run faster than him … just faster than you”.

You don’t need to have 5-years of food stored. You only need as much to outlast the majority who are not prepared.

No. 2

Neo Feudalism

It’s been a while since this concept has been discussed. Our last post on the subject is here.

Now, we have this site giving us another view of the plan as it moves forward.

Self-employment is one answer to avoid being sucked into serfdom.

No. 3

Grease Plant Destroyed

Largest grease plant in the U.S. destroyed by fire.

So far we have:

Ship blocks Suez Canal for six (that’s right, 6) days.

Then, a 557 ft. ship carrying auto parts, sinks off coast of Japan.

Now, we have a grease plant fire.

Want grease, auto parts or food?

Get injected and we’ll put it all back to ‘normal’.

No. 4

Idiots Suffer More

There’s no joy watching others suffer.

Those of us who just want to ‘wake up others’, want only that; meaning, somehow, you’re able to pull back the veil. They now have eyes to see and ears to hear.

However, some seem to be under a spell.

Even after being diagnosed with a known side effect from injection, the truth is still mocked (time stamp 0:53 in the text).

No. 5

“Churches … have basically, checked-out”

Jerimiah Babe calls it straight at time stamp: 16:24

‘The Church’ had its opportunity way back in March of 2020.

That was the time to call on supernatural protection to ward off (what this site calls ‘the speck’ to avoid censorship) any negative effects of what we now know, was a fake enemy.

What we have instead, is this.

Let’s review for just a second:

“But the men marvelled, saying, What manner of man is this, that even the winds and the sea obey him!”

Does the master of the universe, the maker and sustainer of all things, really need a ‘man-made’ injection?

No. 6

Expired Lethality

It’s bad enough to line up and voluntarily get injected with a lethal compound.

Now, I’ve got to worry if that lethality has “expired”.

If it’s expired, is it more lethal, or less?

I want my money’s worth!

No. 7

Texas Heatwave … just another lie

The article at this link would have you believe it’s sweltering in Texas.

The short answer is no.

Not only no, but summer in Texas, had a late start.

The morning of Labor Day weekend, scheduled opening for the pool at city park, was 68-degrees.

The high for Labor Day Sunday, in Ft. Worth Texas, was 14-degrees colder, than last year.

No. 8

Pharmacist tells it like it is

Refuses to be part of the execution squad.

No. 9

Lions and tigers and Delta … Oh my!

Catherine Austin Fitts provides insight. Delta ‘variant’, is really ‘injury’ from the injection.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Never More Fragile, as Now

Stretched, Stretched, Stretched

Slightest Dip, Cascading Effect

The last update had what some might consider a hyperbolic statement:

” … a market break anywhere from 20% to 50% (in our view) can happen at any moment.”

Less than an hour after that post, we had this from ZeroHedge.

” …in other words, stocks may be at a record high, but they have also never been more fragile and more sensitive to even a modest drop.”

Of course, nobody’s going to come out and publicly say we could get a ‘disconnect’ that results in a 20% drop or more, overnight.

Remember the Flash Crash of 2010?

In the entire history of the market, that’s never happened before, either.

Biotech Backdrop:

We’ve got empirical and anecdotal evidence pointing to the real objective of the ‘experiment’; now, we’re fortunate enough to have a data analyst doing what the medical establishment used to do.

That is, maintain and present the data.

The analyst at this link, is parsing the government database of adverse reactions. That analysis can be viewed here.

Reviewing the data solidifies the fundamental case even more for biotech implosion (taking down the broad market as well).

Mr. Benavidez estimates: 100,000 – 200,000 already dead in the U.S.

Let’s not forget; nearly half of the states have approved ‘liquefaction‘ of the deceased to be used as ‘fertilizer’. These are facts.

Seems like everything’s well planned … far in advance of current events.

Biotech Technical:

Since the SPBIO, index does not provide volume data, we’ve done a modification.

The SPBIO, weekly chart is below but it’s inverted. The weekly Force Index of leveraged inverse fund LABD, has been added.

On a closing basis, SPBIO (inverted) has penetrated just below support. It’s done so on significantly divergent energy.

Drilling down to the daily, it’s a similar picture; except we see the axis line (now support) more clearly.

Summary:

With the conditions noted above, SPBIO’s in position to pivot. Heading lower while LABD moves higher.

Potential USO Model:

When the big reversal takes hold, conditions may be similar to oil (USO) from July 2014, to the interim bottom of February, 2016.

During that move, the market retraced no more than 23.6%, at any stage of the decline.

However, if you recall, newsletter writers, pundits and YouTubers were putting out their prognostications; get into oil’s ‘big rebound’.

By February 2016, USO’s down a whopping – 81%. The oil market never came back.

Final Notes:

One commenter to a Jerimiah Babe video observed:

‘Most people think the worst is over when it’s not even started.’

That exemplifies the mindset required. This economic and societal decline is going to be a very long ordeal.

The normal at this point, is anything that wasn’t normal before.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

The usual suspects for the week.

No. 1

Succession Planning

Note: This source (linked) has not been vetted. However, it could be one of many to come; therefore, it’s included in the list.

One more brick in the wall showing major corporations all on the same script.

A script like ‘we’re all in this together’ popping up instantly nationwide. Now, we have those same entities planning to replace all those who have been injected.

No, it’s not the ones who have refused but those who willingly lined up (in most cases except children) to limit, or eliminate their lifespan.

Just in case the first link may not have the right pedigree, here’s one showing that Goldman Sachs wants to know your ‘status’.

The mainstream paints it as working to ‘be safe’ (and get injected).

It really may be to identify who needs to be replaced.

No. 2

Lumber Crash, Economy Next?

That was the update for June 5th. Now, we have the mainstream report.

Hidden within the article is a miss-statement or outright lie:

“With that being said, when you think about the amount of housing we’re going to have to build in the U.S. over the next three, five, 10 years, that’s a significant amount of demand for wood products.”

Sorry … anybody with two studs rubbing together knows there’ll be no lumber demand … except for coffins … but then again, FEMA got that worked out years ago.

No. 3

Food Supply Controlled Demolition

Ice Age Farmer bats-a-thousand as he puts out two reports here and here discussing the latest salvo in food supply destruction.

He’s been on the forefront; politely admonishing his viewers to get going with their own food production.

Anyone who’s done so in a serious way realizes quickly, there’s a big learning curve to get a private garden up to maximum production.

It takes years as the first harvest needs to produce seeds acclimated to the local region. After that, they come up like weeds.

Logically then, one needs enough stored food to last for one year.

What’s in your pantry?

No. 4

Take heed that ye be not deceived

Even though this link contains a presentation on what may be truth, the poster Rogersings NWO News! , notes correctly (in his comments below the post) there’s something wrong.

To put it succinctly:

I am the way, the truth and the life …

From this site’s perspective (The Danger Point), the presentation above allows these two (Madej and Stone), to be crossed off the list of truth sources.

Just listen to the new age lingo. What a load of bollocks.

Enough said.

No. 5

Clown Show at The G7

A world of illusion.

Is the ‘elbow bump’ just a new version of this salute?

No. 6

Priced Out of The Market

Jerimiah Babe presents (time stamp 5:38) that this firm, article linked here, has decided to take the money and run.

The middle class is priced-out for now. However, if the U.S. population craters over the next three years, won’t the joke be on them?

No. 7

It’s Tough Being An Idiot

First, they tell me I can’t travel unless I get injected.

Of course, I ‘follow the rules’ and do the right thing; get myself injected.

Now, they tell me I can’t travel because I’ve been injected.

Personal anecdote (skip to No. 8, if not interested)

Way back, right about the time Mask on, Mask off, was posted, I had a conversation with the Janitor at the local home improvement store.

Just to be clear, restrooms at these outfits are some of the most disgusting I’ve ever seen; Worse than your typical Allsup’s gas station on Hwy 287, heading to Amarillo.

This guy was South American and had lived in Brazil. During our conversation, he proceeded to tell me the ‘speck’ was a hoax. He said it was just like the propaganda being pumped out down there before elections.

His comments were additional confirmation of my own research.

The point here, he’s not ‘educated’.

He works for minimum wage, cleans up never ending human excrement from the floor and yet, he’s awake to the lies and deception.

At the same store, you can find a middle-aged ‘lot loader’ gathering shopping carts in the parking lot.

Talking with him about current events has him quoting Revelation.

So what gives?

I’ve heard one presenter (Amazing Polly, if memory serves) say that ‘stupidity is a choice’.

It’s uncomfortable to recognize and act on truth. It’s much easier to stay in the crowd where we’re all safely injected.

Therefore, our rule following traveler above chooses stupidity rather than the raw edge of reality; that reality is, nothing … absolutely nothing, is ‘safe’.

In their intentionally compromised mind, they’ve convinced themselves they’re doing the ‘right thing‘.

So be it:

The difference is, they have to stay home now as they’re not allowed to travel anymore.

No. 8

Color Blind

Two moms are filmed testifying in front of school boards.

The links are here and here.

One topic is more intense than the other; taking that part into account and closing your eyes, you will not be able to tell which one of the mom’s is black.

Just from watching, you can tell they both have character and courage. They are well spoken and educated.

Those are the exact things ‘the world‘ seeks to destroy.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

There has been so much research over the past week; there’s no time to format it into a concise report.

Here are the links with a brief summary.

Number 1.

South Africa Cash In Transit (CIT) failed heist blows up internet.

Link to short video, Here.

Longer version, Here.

The oligarchs will use the bravery of the driver and shotgun rider as an excuse for ‘cashless society’. Just wait.

Number 2.

Biotech index SPBIO down for the week in five time-frames:

Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly and Yearly price all posted new lows.

This index is heading down.

Number 3.

There’s no helicopter flying around on Mars.

With atmosphere just 1% of Earth …. give me a break.

From an engineer who worked 24-years in avionics and aircraft flight test and certification, anyone with two photons rubbing together could call out this farce.

Not sure the purpose for the lie … just that it’s a lie.

As a wild engineering guess:

To have such an ‘aircraft’ operate on Mars, the rotor blades would need to be a half-mile long, fifteen feet in width and be weightless themselves; spinning at 600 – 1000 PRM, to be able to lift a 4-lb payload.

Let’s see if anyone has the cajones to do the real math on this one.

Number 4.

Current parallels to The Great Depression can not be refuted.

Benign (25% unemployment) history book accounts are lies.

No surprise there.

One excellent source for what’s likely to happen next; Neil McCoy-Ward and his latest update.

Some comments from the linked livestream posted below:

This is a typical excuse (it’s not 1931) or complaint from those who do not have the neural plasticity to take yesterday’s data and adapt it to the current scenario.

These types of people are not likely to survive

Yes, the medical community (with few exceptions) has been bought.

Good luck facing the judgement. Here’s a link that might get the point home.

Yes indeed, time’s up.

If you’re not awake by now, you’ve had plenty of time … maybe even going back to 1963 or farther still; all wars are bankers wars.

Indeed, gold and silver won’t matter in what’s to come next.

Summary:

There is no guarantee that I and my firm are playing this chess game of collapse correctly.

However, being focused on Bitcoin or Dogecoin as Jerimiah Babe puts it, is buying into the (beast) system. It’s conditioning those involved to accept a digital currency.

At this point, we’re focused on shorting biotech until price action dictates otherwise. Not advice, not a recommendation.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Elliott Wave: American Tower

Paul Harrell likes to start his videos with:

‘The next twenty minutes are going be long and boring. You might want to skip to the end to see the conclusion.

His rabid and loyal fans then proceed to hang on every word of his self professed ‘boring anecdote’ until the very end.

Not saying this site’s in the same league as Harrell’s.

Just saying, the following is going to be a tedious discussion of American Tower (AMT) and how it just might be ready to start an Elliott Wave III, down.

Market Extremes:

Its been no secret. The markets are at price levels and valuations never before seen.

In this site’s opinion, going long anything, is insane.

There could be a break, upset, world event, container ship run aground (oh, wait…), cyber attack, volcanic eruption (oh, wait …), major earthquake, nationwide weather freeze (oh, wait…) food supply disruption (oh, wait…) bond bear raid (oh, wait…) currency devaluation, or any myriad of disconnects that would instantly change the dynamic.

Change the dynamic in such a way as to make low-risk long exit, or short positioning impossible.

This site has documented several times where major brokers have already gone off-line as a result of markets fluctuating to the upside.

What happens when it turns down? Good luck getting out.

Looking for the (short) entry:

Its been an on again, off again, and back on again affair with shorting real estate, IYR. Anecdotal evidence such as Jerimiah Babe’s updates from his area, show the market’s been vaporized and is not coming back.

We’ve shown from a Point & Figure chart perspective, IYR has built significant price action congestion.

In Wyckoff terms, congestion equals potential.

The IYR index has built enough congestion that if/when the reversal comes, price action has potential to decline below the 2009, lows.

American Tower (AMT) Symmetry:

Now, for the analysis of AMT.

We’re going to start with the daily chart which has an interesting pattern of equal distance moves (or waves):

This equal move structure gives a hint that something’s up. The market’s moving in an orderly fashion. But what order?

To add more intrigue, we’ll go to the weekly chart. We see each retrace of the two initial waves, was Fibonacci 62%.

The last retrace (up to Friday’s close) is essentially 100%.

Looking up Elliott Wave “equal waves” turns up this presentation. It helps some but does not cover the current situation. The take away from the video is that equal waves do occur.

Looking at the daily close chart of AMT gives us this:

The Wave 1, down is placed at the low extreme. Price action then corrects to pivot (magenta oval) at the Fibonacci 38.2% retrace level.

It’s a near perfect retrace.

The reason to think AMT just finished a complex correction that terminated at “z” which is also “2”, is the structure of the fifteen-minute chart below.

The first chart is unmarked except where price action changes character:

Then we put in the Fib projection tool at that location; the inflection point, to get the following:

Incredibly, the top of Friday’s price action is also a Fibonacci target (423.6%) projection.

Getting back to the daily chart and labeling it using the above information gives us this:

Removing all but the labels is more clear:

There could be other ways to label the structure. It may become (very) apparent at the next open whether this interpretation is correct.

However, coupled with yesterday’s analysis of IYR, and its technical condition (at the extreme), we get the sense we’re close to some type of price action hesitation or outright reversal.

Summary:

We’re short this sector via DRV (not advice not a recommendation).

Price action appears to be at extremes and is meeting Fibonacci and support-resistance levels simultaneously.

Not related but an interesting coincidence (maybe): Van Metre’s update on Friday night:

“Is This a Sign Real Estate Prices Have Peaked?”

The futures markets just opened … S&P down 7-points. Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

High Yield, The Canary

The canary in the coal mine could be High Yield, HYG

Since early last year, this site has been discussing growing parallels of the current market environment to that of August 1987.

Just recently, ZeroHedge began to pick up on the idea as well.

What’s becoming very obvious when looking at 1987, we’re in something much larger; possibly an order of magnitude (or two) larger.

Here’s the latest from Jeramiah Babe. Important time-stamps below:

2:15, Crypto (try it when the power goes out)

3:00, Inflation

3:30, Agricultural prices

3:40, Lumber prices

4:10, Middle Class destruction

5:00, Last longer than Great Depression

7:30, Dramatic shift (never to be the same)

10:00, “We’re in 2021 now. Anything is possible

A quick review of longer term momentum indicators on the major indices (or ETFs), below:

Technology based indices all have significant downside momentum.

The financial press may have pawned this off as ‘rotation’. Of course, that remains to be seen.

Our view, high yield tells us something much larger than a sector rotation’s occurring.

It’s possible, the most debt (interest rate) sensitive indices are reversing first which could be a sustained, long term reversal.

The HYG weekly chart pattern is similar to the prior reversal (magenta ovals). This time however, MACD has spent over nine-months in a divergence and has crossed to the downside.

There could be a new high … low probability but it could happen (after all, it’s at support). If it does, weekly MACD may post an even larger divergence.

In response to the HYG reversal, we’re watching (and are short) the biotech sector, IBB (not advice, not a recommendation)

Of the three noted above with negative momentum, IBB is the weakest. Last Friday’s action has tentatively confirmed the resistance areas and trading channel reviewed in this update.

Friday’s IBB lower action was nearly imperceptible but it was there. Major reversals can happen this way … a little at first.

Wyckoff said it in 1910, ‘It’s as if the weight of a feather can determine the next direction’.

We’ll see if there’s follow-through to the downside on Monday.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Inflation or Deflation?

Is the latest stimulus bill inflationary or deflationary?

For those adhering to the tenets of Wyckoff analysis (as this site does), you already know it’s sort of a trick question.

The answer is: It doesn’t matter.

Maybe a better way to put it, it’s the wrong question.

The right question is: What’s the market saying about itself?

The market itself will decide (or reveal) the next probable direction.

Before we get to the charts; remember, one objective for the (U.S.) markets and political kabuki theater is, destroy the middle class.

Exactly how that’s going to happen in the final act is unknown.

Perhaps it’ll be illegal to go to the bullion dealer (or the grocer) without proof of protection (injection). Problem solved.

That destruction remains the backdrop; the macro for the analysis.

Moving on to the charts:

Real estate remains in a terminating wedge. Last week’s action had IYR contact the lower wedge boundary and then retrace into the close.

Weekly volume was the highest since the week of March 13th, 2020, almost exactly one year ago.

So, we see the ‘face ripping’ Friday rally, ‘plunge protection team‘ action, had no material effect on the chart’s technical message.

Looking at it a different way, there’s also an axis line in play.

Market oscillations about axis lines are completely normal.

We’ll see if Monday’s action is ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’. We’ve already had buy the rumor (stimulus) with Friday’s rally.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

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