Gold … Ready To Move

Up or Down ?

Before we get started, no analysis would be complete without the latest mega bull forecasts for gold.

Here they are:

“Everyone Is WRONG About This Cycle” – Peter Schiff

Well, ok. I only have one bullish report.

Since it’s from Schiff, do we really need more? 🙂

Remember, back when it was the Russians that were going to move gold higher? You really can’t make this stuff up.

So, let’s move on and take a look at the truth … the price action for gold (GLD).

Gold (GLD), Daily Close

The un-marked daily chart shows about three-years of price action.

The next chart shows the ‘Changing of Hands’ that was first identified over four months ago in this post.

Also shown is the current (channel) trendline that appears to be in effect; GLD, is ‘respecting’ the line.

The left side channel line is grey in color so that multiple hits are shown more clearly.

However, the next chart is where it gets interesting.

If or when GLD penetrates support, it would by definition be set-up in Wyckoff ‘spring position’.

If GLD, was going to launch to new all-time highs, getting itself into ‘spring position’ would be an excellent place to start the move.

If and when there’s penetration of support, one thing to watch closely is the volume.

Would it be another high volume ‘changing of hands’ (for the upside) or a low volume affair that grinds on down.

Summary

From a fundamental standpoint, where’s the money going to come from to increase the demand for gold?

We’re already at the front end of (very likely) the largest real estate crash in U.S. history.

The consumer’s tapped out with record high credit card debt; mass layoffs have already started.

Bankruptcies in some areas are up over 100% from last year. Bankruptcy means ‘liquidation’ and that includes any precious metals.

Anything can happen and gold could rally.

However, the backdrop of demand destruction and asset collapse, suggest the direction for gold continues to be to lower levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Santa Claus’ Rally

That Was it!

It’s going to be a very different place come December.

This won’t be like ’08 -’09, where all the stops are being pulled to ‘rescue’ the market.

No, this time really is different.

We can all see by now; the plan is controlled demolition.

Paraphrasing Jerimiah Babe, and Pinball Preparedness, we haven’t even got started (with the collapse) and the public’s already folding up.

What’s it going to be like when it really hits?

This past week, all the major indices have gone through some type of relief rally. Call it a Santa Claus rally because there probably won’t be one this December.

Trading Consistency

Throughout this upward correction, the case has been made over and again, only biotech SPBIO’s in a technical (and fundamental) condition that would allow it to decline farthest and fastest (not advice, not a recommendation).

Wyckoff analysis along with Livermore’s strategic approach that’s coupled with Loeb’s ‘focus’, has led us to (shorting) this sector exclusively.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close

Looking at the far-right side of the chart, SPBIO rallied this past week. It looks like it may head higher … that is, until we put in the trend-lines.

Now, let’s put in the trendlines.

Extended trendlines show the downside potential.

We’re about to see how this works out.

Friday’s upward action in SPBIO slowed with inverse LABD, posting narrow (downside) action as well.

Ready to reverse.

Summary

Trading action in the past week amounted to reducing the position size in LABD-22-05, by about 4.6% (not advice, not a recommendation).

If and when SPBIO continues is downward trajectory, that position (shorting via LABD) will again be increased as the market allows.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

What ? … There’s No ‘Pivot’ ?

There Never Was

Well, another financial media lie has come and gone.

As Jerrimiah Babe says, time stamp 6:05, at this link:

“The good times are over.”

The Dow Jones was down over 1,000 points on the day and finished (along with the S&P, NASDAQ) right at the session lows.

Typical action for the markets under such conditions, is a follow-through at the next trading session, Monday.

Recall, it’s been presented many times on this site (Holiday Turns), major reversals tend to occur just before, during, or just after, a holiday week.

The 2008, countertrend reversal took place on the Monday (5/19/08), leading into Memorial Day Weekend. The big one in 1929, was the Tuesday (9/3/29) following the Labor Day Weekend.

The current reversal (discussed below), if it holds, has come a couple weeks early in the ‘holiday’ window.

It’s possible because of the massive size of this monster, that a week or two does not make a difference.

Let’s look at the Dow 30 and its perfect Wyckoff Up-Thrust, Reversal, and Test.

Dow 30, DIA Daily Close

Daily Close with Fibonacci retrace levels identified.

A close-in look on the reversal area.

Looking at the zoom-chart above, we had a Wyckoff Up-Thrust that touched 61.8%, then declined sharply before coming back to test at 50%.

After the test was another sharp decline. One can make the case, the up-thrust has been tested.

Continued (overall) downside is the higher probability with a ‘no Fed pivot’ providing the tailwind.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Recession First … Depression Next

The Last Place To Be … Real Estate

The most illiquid of all ‘assets’: Real Estate

Two quarters of negative GDP (even with cooked books) equals recession.

Next up, full-blown depression.

Some would argue (like J.B. and Dan) that we’re already in a depression … we skipped the recession part altogether.

Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200.

Anyone who thinks the Fed’s going to ‘pivot’ because the numbers are weak, does not understand (or won’t admit to) the real purpose of the entity; but I digress.

The Strategy

Way back in December of 2020, this post was released which discussed ‘Genesis 41’, specifically.

It was an intuitive assessment; we’re in a phase where corn and grain (i.e., the food supply) are potentially more important than ‘stacking‘ silver or gold.

Over the ensuing year and a half, how correct, that has proven to be.

Then, nine-months ago, was this post, presenting the ‘elephant’; a massive population decline whose repercussions would last the lifetimes of anyone reading.

Now, we have this. A report that confirms the elephant.

It’s all starting to hit the mainstream, although the language is still being couched to not cause undue panic. Good luck with that.

So, what’s next?

The Danger Point: Real Estate

While mainstream press and money managers alike struggle to figure out the obvious, we have price action itself telling us the next likely direction of the market.

During an economic downturn there are many places not to be such as semiconductors, airlines and other low margin businesses, restaurants and so on.

However, the most illiquid of all, is real estate. It does not matter how bad one wants to sell, if there is no buyer, there is no sale.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly Chart

Last week, real estate IYR, closed right at the Fibonacci 23.6% retrace as shown.

Getting closer in on the daily, it’s marked up to show the risk from a shorting perspective (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate IYR, Daily Chart

In this case, the risk on a short position is defined as the distance from last Friday’s high (IYR: 93.96) to that same week’s high of IYR: 95.0

Let’s add, Friday’s action saw IYR, retrace a Fibonacci 76.4% (the most available) of the entire move for the week.

The Summary

Amazon (AMZN), ProLogis (PLD), and Real Estate IYR, are joined at the hip.

Now the economy’s imploding, massive warehouse space is not needed.

Ditto that for employees as well.

ProLogis is already down – 31.2%, from its all-time highs set just this past April.

We’ve already shown PLD, has a nasty habit of going straight down during a market route.

Last time, PLD, crashed over – 84%, in just two months.

It’s likely to be worse, this time around.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … The Case For Collapse

Down 90%, Before October ?

If all the “Ifs”, come true.

First off, biotech (SPBIO), may already be in a collapse.

Of all the major sectors, it’s leading the way lower; down -61%, from all-time highs, set in February of 2021.

With SPBIO, lower by that much, are there still downside opportunities?

Only you can be the final judge of that.

However, for my firm, I’m not waiting around to see what happens next; we’re already short (not advice, not a recommendation)

SPBIO, Summary

As we’ll show below, SPBIO’s maintaining price action in a downside channel, declining at approximately -97.8%, on an annualized basis.

If that channel is held for the next three months (a big if) and if there’s no ban on short sales (as happened last time in 2008), and if the vehicle itself (LABD) remains viable, we can look for a -90%, decline from all-time highs, by October at the latest.

Why -90% ?

We’re using our chief, cook, and oh so, ‘disruptive’ bottle-washer, Carvana (CVNA) as the example.

The last report on Carvana, highlighted the possibility that it’s ripe for implosion.

The very next session, that implosion started in earnest.

Currently trading at 26.53, CVNA is down -92.96%, from all-time highs.

So, -90% (or more), for biotech seems reasonable 🙂

Throwing in a couple of anecdotal comments from J.B., Dan, and Patera, and voila! ‘This sucker could go down.’

Moving on to the main topic.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

Here’s where we are with the un-marked chart.

We’re going to compress the chart and put in the channel lines. The lower horizontal line marks a decline of -90%, from all-time highs.

If price action maintains the right-side trend line, a 90% decline, targets right around October this year.

Summary

This analysis could be blown away, rendered invalid, at the very next session.

That’s the way of the markets.

As sated, current positioning is to be short the sector via LABD, with trade LABD-22-02 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As a result of today’s action thus far, we’ve got a hard stop for LABD, currently @ 55.73.

Even as this post is being created, SPBIO action continues to grind down; threatening to post a new weekly low.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Stall & Reverse

Heading Off The Cliff ?

We’re about to find out.

The last update presented that whatever happens with biotech (SPBIO), it’s likely to be decided quickly.

That conclusion was based on the ‘rule of alternation’ and the fact, the whole short squeeze event from last week, did not result in a new weekly high.

That, Was Then

What we have now so far in today’s session, is an attempt to move higher by SPBIO, which appears to have stalled and now, looking to reverse.

The reversal part won’t be confirmed unless, and until a new daily low is posted.

For today, posting a new low is somewhat of a tall order because of Friday’s wide trading range … but we’ll see.

Instead of going to the actual index, SPBIO, we’ll look at the 3X leveraged inverse fund LABD

SPBIO, 3X, Leveraged Inverse, LABD

Note:

The chart below, is a 3-Day chart with Friday, completing the last ‘third’ day.

As price action has moved lower, energy behind that move is weakening; seen in the thrust divergence

Why a 3-Day Chart?

When’s the last time you saw a 3-Day, 2-Day, or 6-Day, or any other non-conventional chart in anyone’s analysis?

Anybody? … Bueller? Bueller?

It’s not different, just to be different.

Shown below, we have the same 3-Day LABD, compressed and marked up with a trading channel.

At this juncture, the 3-Day shows the nuances more clearly.

If this trading channel is in-effect, that is, if it’s active, potential exit points for an LABD position at this point in time, would be 105, or 240 (not advice, not a recommendation).

For LABD, to get anywhere close to those points, especially the second (240-level), biotech would need to collapse.

Summary

There’s plenty of chaos to go around. We have those who are still arguing whether or not ‘it’s the bottom’.

Such arguments are potentially (and likely) from those completely unprepared.

As Jerimiah Babe said in one of his latest videos, ‘something’s going to break’.

When or if that break happens, it won’t be to the upside.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Economic Free-Fall

Anecdotal Data, Says Implosion

As we speak, economic activity is shutting down … fast.

Amazon shipments cancelled, gas stations going dry, banks halt lending, real estate sales collapse.

Meanwhile, the market’s in a short-squeeze.

What happens next?

We’ll discuss real estate and biotech farther down but first the data sources.

Dan from i-Allegedly reports here, he still has a couple of rubes (my word) that think the market just bottomed out.

Good luck with that.

As we’ll show below, the real estate bear market (IYR) rebound, was identified ahead of time.

Next, we have Red Hurricane describing one semi-trailer load after another being cancelled. He hauls for Amazon.

Shipping activity’s contracting, seemingly, by the minute.

Lastly, this link where the D-word, ‘Depression’ is used within the first one-minute, twenty seconds.

Bottom-out in the stock market? Probably not.

So, let’s take a look at real estate IYR, and see where it might go next.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly Chart

The last update (link, here) showed potential to rise into a test of resistance. That’s exactly what happened.

Back then:

And now:

With zoom

Obviously, the upward test happened much quicker than anticipated … but it was anticipated … no surprise.

Real estate got itself into Wyckoff spring position; so, a rebound (test) is normal market behavior … short-squeeze or not.

If it was a squeeze and if it’s over, we can expect an immediate drop in price action. We’ll analyze that as it plays-out in the coming week.

Now, on to biotech, SPBIO

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Weekly

Some housekeeping first.

Obviously last week, with being short, more downside action was anticipated resulting in upside for LABD.

On Friday, that did not happen. Biotech was part of the squeeze as well.

The short position via LABD, identified as LABD-22-02, was reduced but not exited completely (not advice, not a recommendation).

At present this is where we are.

First, we’ll start by inverting the chart to mimic the action of 3X inverse, LABD.

Next, we’ll zoom-in and highlight the ‘squeeze’.

Doesn’t look like much when viewed that way does, it?

Next, we’re going to zoom-in, on the zoom

In spite of all the squeeze chaos on Friday, price action could not post a new weekly low (high on the non-inverted).

We’ll see this Tuesday, if that’s important or not.

This post is getting long but let’s end with the rule of alternation. The same chart is marked up below.

If this rule is still in-effect, we’re at a juncture where one can expect a ‘simple’ alternation.

We’ve already had complex action on the prior congestion; so, we can expect current action to be simple in character.

That means, price action’s not likely to stick around at these levels whether it’s going up or down.

Based on the above analysis, the expectation for Tuesday’s open is a gap lower for SPBIO and higher for LABD.

If that does not happen, something else is at work … we’ll report on that as necessary.

Summary

Has the market bottomed out? Not likely.

Those who are at this late stage, still arguing with Jerimiah Babe and Dan (and Patera), that the market’s rebounding, everything’s fine, are in a state of delusion.

The mindless herd following spending with ever newer cars, moving up to the McMansion, opulent vacations, posting it all on Facebook is most decidedly, gone.

It’s finished. It’s Done.

The problem is, as J.B. notes above (time stamp 7:15 and 8:30), those still living that life don’t seem to know it’s over.

For the leaders, the tiny minority and those reading this post, who are, or who have been preparing for years, it means potential huge (life changing) opportunities.

That is, as long as the markets, the banks and other infrastructure stay open; not guaranteed in any way.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … After The Reversal

Changing of Hands’

It’s a significant, if not major event, when one market participant (collectively) hands off the trading vehicle to another.

In a decline, that usually means the ‘average investor’, the least disciplined, least knowledgeable, gives up and hands off to the professionals; the ‘strong hands’.

In a blow-off top, the reverse is true.

The professionals lead the ignorant along with whatever narrative is necessary so that enough volume is created to successfully exit positions.

The changing of hands for gold and gold miners, was identified on this site, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here, starting over two-and-a-half months ago.

The analysis was consistent throughout; we are not in a long-term, sustainable, bull market. That stance applied most specifically to gold miners GDX, and GDXJ.

For that assessment to change, price action itself would have to change character; not the lagging momentum indicators, moving averages, price oscillators and so on that are themselves, defined by price action.

So, let’s take a look at what gold (GLD) is saying about itself.

Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart

First, the un-marked chart.

Next, we see a medium to long term trendline that’s been decisively broken and tested.

Getting closer-in, we can see the oscillation about the line, the break and subsequent test (with reversal).

What’s Next?

Well, that brings us to Harry Dent.

Love him or hate him. Here he is, offering up a perspective that’s not going to be popular.

How can gold (GLD) decline from here?

Let’s take a look.

If the wedge above is in-effect, if it’s the dominant factor at this point, then a break depending on location would take GLD down to about 130-ish.

If that happens, it will be a big event … down to approximately $1,300/oz.

However, it’s what may come next, that will be totally unexpected.

It’s interesting, the wedge in blue has a measured move target right to the bottom of the larger wedge in magenta.

To get below $900/oz, will be a very different place.

With that in mind, this site has presented time and again, we’re in an unprecedented world-event.

‘Normal’ is not coming back … ever.

Awake, or Not

Jerimiah Babe, in one of his latest videos hints there’s a strange vibe to what’s happening: Time stamp 5:20,

‘There’s something going on here …’

The Fed may actually be telling us the truth … just not in the way we expect.

You have to be awake to read between the lines.

Inflation may indeed be ‘transitory’ as they say because consumer demand is going to evaporate.

Evaporate not because the consumer can’t afford it, but because there are, or will be, no consumers.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


It’s a Minefield !

Intentional Distraction ?

Is the objective to create as many news stories (fake or not), along with incessant and contradicting market analysis with the objective: Shut down and distract even the most disciplined trading professional?

The market’s going up, it’s going to crash, it’s in a short squeeze, Goldman ‘says’, then ‘says not’ and on it goes.

If memory serves, the propaganda during the 2007 – 2008 meltdown, wasn’t nearly this bad. Of course, that was before the Smith-Mundt act was repealed … but I, digress.

There are even a few unfortunate dolts that don’t’ even know anything’s happening at all.

Take a look at Dan’s (i-Allegedly) latest video here.

He talks about the number of people contacting him to say ‘it’s not that bad’, or ‘real estate’s going much higher’, or ‘whatever’ as Dan likes to say.

He does present from the (ethical) sales professionals a recognition, real estate’s ‘finished’ for this go-round.

Even while we get reports like this one, where sentiment is so bad, a rally is imminent, the trading objective must be to remain focused on the data … price bars and volume.

That’s what we’re going to do as outlined below.

Real Estate IYR, Daily Chart

The un-marked chart.

Now, let’s get to the ‘force’ behind the rebound of the past four trading days.

The tiny blip circled, was all there was for upward energy from yesterday’s move.

Price action inched up just over 1%.

Looking at the situation from a trading channel standpoint, we see yesterday’s action got just outside the well-established trend lines.

So, we have a little ‘blip’ outside the trendline on minimal volume and force.

The news story linked above (repeated here) says a ‘short squeeze’ is imminent … at least for the tech stocks.

What about the rest of the market? Is real estate going to breakout as well?

That actual (IYR) data says, anything can happen; however, with such anemic upside performance, the expectation is for IYR, to resume its downward trend.

Positioning

It’s about forty-minutes before the open and we already have DRV, pre-market activity.

Because the (bid/ask) spreads are so wide in both IYR inverse funds SRS, and DRV, pre-market activity is rare.

Nonetheless, 3X inverse DRV, is trading higher at +0.79 points or +1.71%, indicating that IYR will have a lower open.

That means, the DRV low of yesterday (DRV 45.64) would make a good stop location for any positioning (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary

Wyckoff analysis is independent of the news or the financials. He discovered as early as 1902, that prices are moving from a ‘force of their own’ having nothing to do with fundamentals.

The action itself will point to the next likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate & The Wrecking Ball

When The Short Squeeze Is Over …

Question:

How do you know it’s a short-squeeze?

Answer:

When it’s over, prices collapse.

That’s exactly what happened yesterday and today.

Yesterday was the squeeze; today, prices collapsed.

We’re about mid-way through today’s session and there could be a late-day test of the down draft. Even so, the action tells us, up moves at this time, can’t be sustained.

For the first hour of today’s session, price action went straight down. Not even a hint of an upward test.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly Chart

This is how the weekly looks currently.

The 105.50 – 106.00, is an area of support.

Price action may hesitate and use that support for an attempt to move higher.

However, there may be something else at work that’s not obvious without a mark-up.

That is, IYR could be in a downward trading channel; having confirmed the right-side yesterday and today.

As Dan from i-Allegedly, has repeated time and again:

‘We’ve had warning after warning … after warning’.

He even uses that phrase in his recent video, linked here.

In his view, along with access to other real estate professionals, the set-up is worse than 2007 – 2009.

The trading channel area is zoomed-in below.

Four channel hits on the left side and two on the right.

The lowest contact spike on the left channel line to the highest spike contact on the right, is a Fibonacci 13-Weeks.

Positioning

For the most part during yesterday’s session, the short position in SRS was maintained (SRS-22-01).

However, late in the session as price action spiked higher, that position was closed and a new one opened with the 3X-Inverse fund DRV; identified as DRV-22-02 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The downward bias on a triple leveraged fund(s) is significantly higher than a two-times fund (even counting for the additional leverage).

Now that significant countertrend moves may be complete for a while, I’m taking advantage of the additional 3X leverage (not advice, not a recommendation).

There was a slight loss on the SRS-22-01, position; somewhere around -0.21 %, … not significant.

Summary

Both Dan (i-Allegedly) and Jerimiah Babe keep getting asked “When’s the collapse?”

Their responses are near identical; “You’re in it, now”.

What do they (asking the question) expect?

Do they want to have the societal, financial and we now know for sure, genocidal collapse, live streamed through their Netflix?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279