Category Archives: S&P

KKR … Reversal

August 9, 2026 By in DIA, Dow 30, KKR, Nasdaq, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, SPY, Up-Thrust Leave a comment

Ruh, Roh Moment

While the Dow, S&P, Qs and the SOXX all seem ready to continue higher, KKR, is absent from the party.

There’s an up-thrust reversal from resistance, then decline to minor support (dashed grey line).

Volume is increasing as price action nears that level.

The suggestion then, is the support will fail (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Like, Never Before’

May 24, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Ed Dowd, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-04, SOXX, SPY, Thoughtful Money, TLT

Unprecedented

The market rally’s unprecedented; like never before.

Will it be the same on the way down? (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adam Taggart says in the latest Ed Dowd interview:

‘Vertical moves don’t correct by going sideways’

Some Highlights

The entire interview is worth the time. However, some excerpts are below. Time stamps are in (parentheses).

Market summary (2:20)

Double ordering of inventory (8:28)

Helium shortage (9:00)

The beginning of the end (9:30)

Bonds, long term lows (10:48)

All you need is one company to slow ordering (13:30)

‘You don’t crash from tops’ (14:18)

‘I’ve never seen anything like this’ (14:40)

Price washout, sets up opportunities (19:30)

A.I. creating more problems than it solves (43:20)

Nvidia to retrace 80% – 90% (45:30)

This is my third rodeo … it’s all echoing (47:25)

‘It’s going to be fast’ (48:07)

Oil breakout (49:15)

Gold, source of liquidity (59:20)

Buffett’s at 40% cash (1:01:00)

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond ‘Stick-Save?’

May 19, 2026 By in 2000 - 2001, 2007 - 2008, Bonds, Interest Rates, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, TLT 4 Comments

Back, in the Day

It’s no secret, bonds (TLT) are at a critical juncture; primed to break significantly lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Breakdown, is almost a ‘no-brainer’.

Almost.

For those old enough, remember back in the early 2000s, the S&P had formed a near-perfect Head & Shoulders?

Remember, how price action was printing lower, ready to penetrate the down-sloping neckline?

Then, just as it got there (week of 10/11/02), from out of nowhere, came a launch upward that didn’t stop until October of 2007?

Rember that?

Of course, we found out later, the ‘hidden hand’ was at work, preventing a melt-down; leading us to where we are today. 🙂

Let’s all keep that in mind as we watch the bond market flirt with disaster (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The S&P Top … and Drop

May 16, 2026 By in S&P, S&P 500, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX, SPY, Tom Hougaard

Interesting Numbers

Trading professional Tom Hougaard has already told us, if Friday’s market action trades below the prior day, Thursday, then Monday tends to be lower as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s a lot going on in the S&P chart below.

S&P 500 SPY, Daily

The current move bottom-to-top, was 33 Days

If the SPY retraces from Friday’s close to the ‘Measured Move’ target, it’s a drop of approximately –3% (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s throw in some SOXX, stats as well.

SOXX all-time high (5/11), was 533.74. The ‘test’ high (5/14), was 533.13, closing at 530.03, a daily gain of +0.33%.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Off The Cliff?

May 15, 2026 By in Artificial Intelligence, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-26-03, SOXX, SPY

Won’t Know, ’till Monday

First, there was ‘shortening of the thrust’, link here.

Then, it was ‘SOXX goes parabolic’, link here.

After that, it was ‘change of character’, link here.

On the heels of that, ‘no new highs’, link here.

Finally, today, we have a gap-down open, new daily low and closing low.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

It’s important to note, the S&P (SPY) also posted a gap down, close down for the day.

A gap down from all-time highs.

Of course, it could all be much ado about nothing (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

S&P Top of Channel

January 27, 2026 By in Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

Catalyst, Tomorrow?

Is the S&P about to blow-up in a downside reversal or breakout into a blow-off top?

This link does a good job covering the current situation.

The catalyst or ‘excuse’ for either scenario may happen at the Fed announcement, tomorrow (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Rydex Bull/Bear

January 16, 2026 By in Rydex, S&P, S&P 500

On The Side of Probabilities

Rydex, Bull/Bear (daily close) has just come off an extreme; labeled Now???

Prior, significant S&P tops are shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: Credit goes to Figuring Out Money for the timely idea.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Viva Las Vegas!

January 8, 2026 By in 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, S&P, S&P 500, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

Well, Not Really

It’s no secret the ‘consumer’ is up against a wall.

FRED links for various forms of debt are here, here and here.

Then, we have this just out from ZeroHedge; wide disparity between bonds and the market.

Original website, link here.

Paraphrasing from that link:

‘Expect to see an equity crash that will rival or surpass any seen before.’

We’ve all been hearing that for a long time. Are we close?

Well, some sectors are already rolling over.

The focus (on this site) for a while, has been ‘consumer discretionary’ and related.

Yesterday, was DoorDash. Today, is Las Vegas.

Las Vegas Sands LVS, Monthly

During the last melt-down, LVS cratered over -99%.

The monthly chart shows the potential.

At present, we have a repeating pattern: Spring to Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Launches, After-Hours

December 6, 2025 By in AMZN, AMZN-25-01, APP, Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, HOOD, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

To be Part of S&P

Now we know the reason for nine-straight higher closes.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something’

That ‘something‘, then, shows up on the tape.

Inclusion in the S&P notwithstanding, ‘fundamentals’ for Carvana have not changed.

Here’s a recent report on what’s happening behind the scenes. Note: In the comments section, one reply suggests the assessment of CVNA is ‘overblown’, ‘dramatized’.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it doesn’t matter.

The tape itself will let us know, if or when there’s a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

After-hours high, was 450.00

Just in the past four months, APP, HOOD, and now, CVNA have been included in the S&P.

At this point, we have the following:

APP is being investigated by the SEC.

CVNA, has ‘interesting’ numbers, currently being sued with class-action, questioning the core fundamentals.

Let’s not forget, several years ago, HOOD has its own class action resulting from their platform lockups.

Other ‘Fundamentals’

For those watching, the SOXX is at (or near) all-time highs.

We would expect Nvidia to be the leader (as it has done), but it’s lagging, still below its earnings release peak.

Looking at Amazon, proxy for the ‘consumer’, last year from October lows, to highs in December, Amazon posted a solid +29.3% gain.

This year, it’s completely different.

Amazon posted all-time highs that were quickly reversed.

From the lows of October 17th to Friday’s close AMZN is only up 8.77% and appears to be in a downward channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wells Fargo Top … 86.66

October 6, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, S&P, S&P 500, WFC 2 Comments

Chaos Everywhere

While everyone’s chasing after the S&P top, maybe Wells Fargo has already given us the signal.

Back in the day (3/9/09), the S&P bottomed at, or near, 666.7

Revisionist History

It’s important to note, as time passes, finding any reporting of that low (666) is becoming increasing more difficult. Links here and here have two conflicting closes.

The ‘old-timers’ know and that’s what matters.

The Reversal

Wells Fargo posted its all-time high (86.66) ten-days ago, on September 23rd.

Today was a sight upside reversal, suggesting a (marginal) push higher.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279