Bond Reversal Targets

Trade or Strategic

It’s either a short-term trade or a strategic reversal.

On the strategic reversal side is this just out from ZeroHedge.

‘Inflation’ may have peaked; where have we heard that before.

However, the charts presented in that link, do show we’re at an extreme.

If we look at the TLT, price action itself, which is impulsive down, we’ll go with the short-term first (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, Friday may have been the ‘test’ from our capitulation model.

The weekly chart of bonds TLT, shows the anticipated up-tick in MACD, as well as the measured move target from the terminating wedge.

Long Bond, TLT, Weekly

Note, the wedge has not (yet) broken to the upside … we’re still at The Danger Point®, where the trade could fail.

If we look at the daily chart, probabilities point higher.

Long Bond, TLT, Daily

If this past Friday was the ‘test’ of the move, the retrace was a very weak Fibonacci 23.6%.

A new daily high in the next session(s), will help to confirm we’re headed higher.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 6.705, 7.166***, Stop @ 6.68

***, Indicates change

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Summary

If bonds continue to move higher, with rates heading lower, what’s going to happen to real estate, IYR ?

The wheels of the real estate crash have already been set in motion. If bonds rise, rates fall and IYR moves higher, there are specific targets to watch for short opportunities.

We’ll discuss those targets and more, in the next ‘The Market Set-Up … This Week’

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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