Baltic Dry Index
‘The longer the delay, the bigger the break.’
That was Jesse Livermore’s assessment of the market just before The Panic of 1907.
That Was, Then
Back then, it was money spent on The Boer War, tight financial conditions and extreme overvaluations.
Looks more and more, like today
It’s been this site’s opinion for about a year (now supported by data), that we’ve gone straight past recession, into economic collapse and depression.
And Now, This
Another data point confirming the ‘depression’ scenario is this, just out from ZeroHedge: The Baltic Dry Index had its largest one-day collapse on record.
As if to drive it home; demand is in free-fall as Amazon, just announced plans to fire 18,000 workers.
From a strategic standpoint, collapsing shipping demand means collapsing fuel demand.
Which brings us to the sector of the day, Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Sector XOP, Weekly
The last update, showed the weekly chart has reversed down and stayed down.
XOP is penetrating support, now at The Danger Point®.
The daily chart has more detail; we’re hovering at support, testing the right side trendline (again).
Providing some (minor) upward bias for the day is this report on WTI (West Texas Intermediate).
Oil & Gas Sector XOP, Daily
It’s 1:31 p.m., EST and XOP, has not posted a new daily high (it’s very close).
Doing so, would weaken the downtrend case and point probabilities to a Wyckoff spring move higher.
Demand is rapidly collapsing on many fronts and the WTI report linked above uses the word ‘tepid’.
That may be completely inaccurate or misleading when considering the demand for shipping has seen its worst down-day, on record.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279