That’s not saying ‘money printing’ has no effect. There are a lot of moving parts. Intentional destruction of the food supply is just one of those parts.
Old School Analysis
Hypothetically, if you dropped an ‘old-timer’ into the markets at this juncture (without him knowing the ‘hype’), and showed him all four charts of gold, silver, palladium, platinum, and asked ‘what’s happening?’
What’s his response?
After a brief look at the charts, he would likely say:
‘Gold’s move higher is not being confirmed by the other precious metals’.
Note that all four metals peaked together during the inflation spike of 1980.
Ergo: At this juncture, something’s wrong.
Either the other metals are going to ‘catch up’ to meet gold or gold is going to come down to meet the others.
That is of course, unless this time is different … somehow.
With that, we’ll look at the chart of gold to see what it’s saying about itself.
Gold GLD, Weekly
We’re starting with the unmarked chart.
Note: Elder’s Force Index scale is expanded to show the nuances of GLD, price action.
Next, we see we’re at a test of the trendline in place for 16-months before the downside breakout of July, last year.
Moving in closer, we have a wedge formation prior to the up-move last week.
Is this a breakout to the upside or a throw-over?
At this point, it’s unknown.
We can see that Force Index is below where price action entered the wedge during the week of November 11th.
Less force up into resistance (trendline), paints a slightly more bearish than bullish picture.
The ‘Why’ Comes Out
As if on cue and in classic Wyckoff style, we have a ‘why‘ for the move off the lows of last November.
Classic Wyckoff, because he said the ‘why’ of a move comes out after the fact.
There you have it; China buying gold last November and December.
During this move from the recent lows, it was certainly a trading opportunity for the bulls … but from a strategic standpoint, what happens next?
Non-confirmations can last a long time.
For example, the Oil & Gas sector XOP, declined for eight months, from April 2019 to January 2020, before the price of oil (USO) finally broke lower.
With the ZeroHedge article just released a few hours ago, we can expect at least a blip higher at the next GLD, open.