Russell … Rolling Over

Bearish Wedge Poised To Break Down

The Russell 2000 (IWM as proxy) has been congesting sideways for about five months.

While the overall markets, S&P, Dow, SOXX, IYR and the QQQs, have been moving on to new highs … the Russell has stagnated.

Taking a cue from Steven Van Metre’s reports on ‘who goes first’ in a downturn, it’s the small caps.

At this juncture, it looks like the Russell’s ready.

The six month daily chart of IWM below, shows choppy action.

Pulling back somewhat and labeling the bearish wedge, puts it into perspective (second chart):

Pulling out and labeling the wedge:

One item of note (not shown) at the top of the wedge, where price action pivoted lower (August 6th), is a Fibonacci 62%, retrace level.

So, we have a bearish wedge retracing 62% … along with non-confirmation of the overall highs; S&P, Dow, SOXX, etc.

Major reversals take a long time to form. However, once they get underway, it’s like a juggernaut to the bottom.

Harkening back to the oil (USO) bear market of 2014, nearly all (if not all) the YouTuber’s at the time, completely missed the bearish set-up.

What they did instead, once the downdraft started, was pump out update after update about ‘catching the bottom and setting up for the new bull market in oil’.

It never happened.

Oil continued lower for a year and a half before getting into a sideways range.

The big money’s in the big move. Monitoring the Russell provides confirmation a significant reversal’s in the works (not advice, not a recommendation).

As with biotech (SPBIO), already in a bear market, the IWM could break lower while the overall markets continue to thin-out and even make new highs.

Recall, we’re getting close to an up-coming holiday: Labor Day

The 1929, high was on the Tuesday just after Labor Day weekend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Technical Force

2:46 p.m., EST

LABD, Force Index Divergence

Sentiment, Volume, Price

Sentiment can’t be seen on the chart. One can guess but it can’t be measured directly.

Sentiment change comes first.

That change in turn, results in a change of volume, i.e. ‘commitment’.

Then, after commitment dissipates, price is next.

That looks like the current situation with biotech and specifically inverse fund, LABD.

In what may be an idiot or genius move (depending on outcome), the short in biotech SPBIO (via LABD) has been maintained throughout the current down thrust; not advice, not a recommendation.

The reasons for that decision have as many layers as the proverbial onion. Not the least of which, is a market break anywhere from 20% to 50% (in our view) can happen at any moment.

‘Never happened before’, one might say.

Oil futures in their entire history have never gone negative before, either.

Bonds, in their entire history have never been shorted by four-standard deviations before, either.

A world-wide coordinated push to euthanize the entire population has never happened before, either.

Margin debt and valuations have never been higher before, either.

Underlying liquidity has never before been removed to the current extent, either.

So, we each have our own reasons.

The firm’s main account (not the Project Stimulus account) has drawn down about – 13%, on the current short position.

A core position has been maintained but small amounts have been removed and added based on price action.

When the anticipated gain, is high hundreds of percent and maybe above 1,000%, the draw down above, looks acceptable considering the (potential) opportunity.

On to the chart:

The daily chart of LABD, shows both net downward price action and thrust energy are dissipating.

Note the ‘Force Index’ scale has been accentuated to better show the divergence.

We’re looking for price to move back higher to test support/resistance areas.

If or when it does, the plan (as has been from the beginning) is to continue to add LABD until volatility makes it prohibitive.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Inflation Reaches Peak Narrative

11:32 a.m., EST:

Just like ‘peak oil’ back in the summer of 2008, now it looks like we’ve reached ‘peak narrative’ for inflation.

‘Narrative’, because the markets are a game of manipulation.

If you don’t know who’s being manipulated, then that person is you (slightly changing a Buffett quote).

Bolstering the assessment, is this report from ZeroHedge.

Looks like everybody’s on board and reporting higher prices. Just like they were on board last year with: “We’re all in this together”.

The exact same tag-line for every major U.S. corporation … with ready made (like they knew ahead of time) banners to boot.

The problem is, the markets are not following along.

Reported two days ago, senior gold miners are testing their reversal.

Yesterday, was an upward push that wound up being an ‘out-side-down’ bar (GLD, GDXJ, SLV) … a reversal in itself.

That’s not in the script. Or, is it?

At this point, the public’s literally redirected, manipulated, at will. It’s a sick game being played by all who control the media.

From a personal standpoint, I’d rather make some popcorn, take my red wagon full of fiat, go camp down around $800/oz., and wait.

The gold ice cream man may never show up. If he does, great.

If not, there’re other opportunities; at least I’ll not be one of the manipulated masses screaming inflation hyperbole if/as/when gold ratchets all the way down.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.