Category Archives: Gold & Silver

The Silver ‘Circus’

December 29, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, HL, HL-25-01, SILH26, SLV Leave a comment

From: ‘Buy at Any Price, to ‘Volatility’

Seems like just yesterday, it was ‘buy at any price’.

Now, it’s ‘volatility’, link here and here.

Looking at the futures (SILH26), it appears to be the typical commodity blow-off (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, as always, anything can happen; somehow, somewhere (over the rainbow), silver could recover.

Hitting The Margin

Let’s not forget, margin increases, here and here.

For now, for the bulls, it doesn’t look good.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … ‘It’s Different This Time’

December 28, 2025 By in Bert Dohmen, Ed Dowd, Gold & Silver, SLV Leave a comment

Deflationary Pressures

This is not 1980, or 2011, says the report at this link. Website, link here.

The premise for ‘it’s different’, is the demand for ‘physical delivery’.

The chart in yesterday’s post, showed tracking fund SLV, very close to its Fibonacci 161.8% projection, near 76.30.

If we refer back to recent interviews with Ed Dowd, and to some extent, Bert Dohmen, they both talk about the current bubble(s).

However, Ed Dowd in particular, discusses the potential for a ‘deflation scare’.

That in turn, allows a provocative thought:

Maybe, deflationary pressures are so intense, the only way to get a blow-off mania spike (this time), is to demand delivery and stress the infrastructure (not advice, not a recommendation).

The futures market opens, in about 10-hours.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s ‘Terminal Velocity’

December 27, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SLV 1 Comment

A Look Back

It’s not a stretch to say, silver stackers, fiat failure futurists, the ‘bugs’, YouTube grifters, et al., are at the peak of euphoric hysteria.

Some, have even gone catatonic.

Well, it really could be different this time.

If that’s true, then, the chart below is of no significance (not advice, not recommendation).

Silver SLV, Monthly

If we take the entire move of the past 17-years and look at the prior high, we get a ‘Ruh-Roh‘, Scooby feeling.

Going back to historical data from macrotrends, it looks like the current price spike bears more resemblance to 1980, than 2011.

That assessment (the spike) would make sense if this market is ‘alternating’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners, Reversal Set-Up

December 24, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-15-17, JDST-25-18

The ‘Secret’ Lies, With The Action

At the top, the miners are hanging on; just barely.

While not discussed on this site, yesterday was a day trade in the Junior Miners (GDXJ) inverse fund JDST.

The thinking (yesterday) was, ‘today’s the day’.

Turns out, this morning’s session may be ‘the day’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners GDXJ, 15-minute

Note how the behavior of the first fifteen minutes ‘alternates’.

Yesterday’s 15-minute bar posted lower and continued for the next four bars before starting a recovery.

Today is different; straight down, no recovery (so far).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners, at The Edge (again)

December 21, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SIL, SILJ

Are We Close?

While the Senior and Junior Miners GDX, GDXJ printed higher for the week ended last Friday, the silver miners SIL and SILJ did not.

SIL price action is hanging just above resistance on momentum (MACD), that’s posting a bearish divergence.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Miners, on the Edge

December 16, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SIL, SIL-25-01, SLV

Hovering, Just Above Resistance

Silver miners SIL, are at highs not seen in over a decade.

We already know, silver SLV, is at a Fibonacci projection and possible pivot, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s no stretch to say the media is screaming about silver ‘breaking its shackles’.

Oh, that’s just great.

If true, and with silver being such a thin market, then those ‘shackles’ may have kept the market organized, preventing massive, high volatility, low liquidity swings over the years.

I guess no one thought about that possibility. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Targets and Projections

December 13, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, Livermore, SLV, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Does The ‘Correction’, Start Now?

More than a few ‘engineering’ types trading the market, will talk about getting over the need to know, ‘why’.

Why does Fibonacci work?

Why does price action alternate?

Why is the market moving, or not moving; why, why, why?

Marsha, Marsha, Marsha

The media of course, wants everyone to focus on why.

If you’re focused on why, then you’re at least two steps removed from the truth.

Asking the wrong question (why) and then, looking for the wrong answer.

Both Livermore and Wyckoff, did not concern themselves with ‘why’ … but ‘what’?

With that said, let’s take a look at ‘what’s’ going on with silver, SLV.

Silver SLV, Daily Close

Shown, are the lows of August 2020 to last Friday’s close.

A whole week of updates (maybe more) could be spent on this one chart: there’s that much going on.

We have Wyckoff springs, up-thrusts, price action alternation, Fibonacci levels, time correlations, volume spikes, and the list goes on.

For today however, the main take-away is that Friday was outside-down (key reversal) on heavy volume.

That reversal (so far) took place at the exact 261.8%, Fibonacci projection (not advice, not a recommendation).

As said in yesterday’s update, we could also be in a new paradigm where silver just keeps on going.

Next upside Fibonacci projection (423.6%) is near 83.50.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s ‘Parabolic’ Phase

December 12, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SLV 1 Comment

Standard-Type ‘Blow Off’

Do we have the usual parabolic ‘blow-off’ move in silver (SLV), or have we entered into a new dimension, where it’s different this time?

From a traditional analysis standpoint, at this juncture (mid-session) it’s not looking good for the bulls.

Silver, SLV, just posted out-side down (if it closes here, or lower) and it’s met a measured move target from a terminating wedge.

In addition, as we’ll see in the chart, the current trendline is rising at approximately 5,600%, annualized.

That type of move can’t be sustained; that is, if we’re not in a ‘new dimension’. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SV, Daily

From a traditional standpoint, targets have been met; the day’s action (so far) is ‘key reversal’, outside down (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, the trendline could hold.

SLV, could also go to the stratosphere in a new paradigm, where nothing makes sense anymore … oh wait 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners, pre-market, Target

November 10, 2025 By in ABD-25-15, Banking, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-15, Up-Thrust, XBI, XLF

Inflation Higher, Deflation Lower

As of 7:55 a.m., EST, Senior Miners GDX are trading in the area of the dashed magenta line.

The prior two updates (here and here) targeted this area as a potential location for retrace and reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Toggling between the two charts, shows price action is actually in the middle of the (prior) target areas.

Other Markets the Same

Several other markets are in the same (retrace, up-thrust) position; specifically, XLF and XBI.

We’ll cover those in another update, if price action warrants.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners: ‘Retrace’ Update

November 5, 2025 By in Deflation, Ed Dowd, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, UUP 1 Comment

Bounce

The chart insert at left, shows Senior Miners, GDX, have bounced off support (blue line), making another attempt at a retrace.

The lower magenta dashed line is 38.2%, with the 50% level, as the upper line.

If this retrace attempt fails by posting successive lows below ‘support’, it indicates we may already be in the ‘deflationary scare’ as discussed by Ed Dowd many times in his interviews (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the dollar (UUP proxy) is currently in a rally.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279