Category Archives: Gold & Silver

Silver Miners, on the Edge

December 16, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SIL, SIL-25-01, SLV Leave a comment

Hovering, Just Above Resistance

Silver miners SIL, are at highs not seen in over a decade.

We already know, silver SLV, is at a Fibonacci projection and possible pivot, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s no stretch to say the media is screaming about silver ‘breaking its shackles’.

Oh, that’s just great.

If true, and with silver being such a thin market, then those ‘shackles’ may have kept the market organized, preventing massive, high volatility, low liquidity swings over the years.

I guess no one thought about that possibility. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Targets and Projections

December 13, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, Livermore, SLV, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Does The ‘Correction’, Start Now?

More than a few ‘engineering’ types trading the market, will talk about getting over the need to know, ‘why’.

Why does Fibonacci work?

Why does price action alternate?

Why is the market moving, or not moving; why, why, why?

Marsha, Marsha, Marsha

The media of course, wants everyone to focus on why.

If you’re focused on why, then you’re at least two steps removed from the truth.

Asking the wrong question (why) and then, looking for the wrong answer.

Both Livermore and Wyckoff, did not concern themselves with ‘why’ … but ‘what’?

With that said, let’s take a look at ‘what’s’ going on with silver, SLV.

Silver SLV, Daily Close

Shown, are the lows of August 2020 to last Friday’s close.

A whole week of updates (maybe more) could be spent on this one chart: there’s that much going on.

We have Wyckoff springs, up-thrusts, price action alternation, Fibonacci levels, time correlations, volume spikes, and the list goes on.

For today however, the main take-away is that Friday was outside-down (key reversal) on heavy volume.

That reversal (so far) took place at the exact 261.8%, Fibonacci projection (not advice, not a recommendation).

As said in yesterday’s update, we could also be in a new paradigm where silver just keeps on going.

Next upside Fibonacci projection (423.6%) is near 83.50.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s ‘Parabolic’ Phase

December 12, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SLV 1 Comment

Standard-Type ‘Blow Off’

Do we have the usual parabolic ‘blow-off’ move in silver (SLV), or have we entered into a new dimension, where it’s different this time?

From a traditional analysis standpoint, at this juncture (mid-session) it’s not looking good for the bulls.

Silver, SLV, just posted out-side down (if it closes here, or lower) and it’s met a measured move target from a terminating wedge.

In addition, as we’ll see in the chart, the current trendline is rising at approximately 5,600%, annualized.

That type of move can’t be sustained; that is, if we’re not in a ‘new dimension’. (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SV, Daily

From a traditional standpoint, targets have been met; the day’s action (so far) is ‘key reversal’, outside down (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, the trendline could hold.

SLV, could also go to the stratosphere in a new paradigm, where nothing makes sense anymore … oh wait 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners, pre-market, Target

November 10, 2025 By in ABD-25-15, Banking, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-15, Up-Thrust, XBI, XLF

Inflation Higher, Deflation Lower

As of 7:55 a.m., EST, Senior Miners GDX are trading in the area of the dashed magenta line.

The prior two updates (here and here) targeted this area as a potential location for retrace and reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Toggling between the two charts, shows price action is actually in the middle of the (prior) target areas.

Other Markets the Same

Several other markets are in the same (retrace, up-thrust) position; specifically, XLF and XBI.

We’ll cover those in another update, if price action warrants.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners: ‘Retrace’ Update

November 5, 2025 By in Deflation, Ed Dowd, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, UUP 1 Comment

Bounce

The chart insert at left, shows Senior Miners, GDX, have bounced off support (blue line), making another attempt at a retrace.

The lower magenta dashed line is 38.2%, with the 50% level, as the upper line.

If this retrace attempt fails by posting successive lows below ‘support’, it indicates we may already be in the ‘deflationary scare’ as discussed by Ed Dowd many times in his interviews (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the dollar (UUP proxy) is currently in a rally.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners Struggle to Move Higher

November 4, 2025 By in Elliott Wave, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Not Happening

Based on price action itself, the miners are refusing to retrace higher.

The last update suggested a retrace to the usual location(s), at least the 38.2% level, the vicinity of ‘wave iv’.

So far, not even that is happening.

Senior Miners, GDX, Daily

Pre-market trading in GDX (as of 8:24 a.m., EST) is lower.

At this point, from the chart above, we can see the index struggling to move higher.

Elliott Wave or not (from previous post), Wyckoff method says the market itself defines the next likely move.

It’s possible we’re not at the bottom of the current down leg; that we’ll post lower before making a serious retrace attempt (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Struggles to Close Gap

October 31, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Larry Williams

Inching Higher … Almost There

The ‘Commercials’ have left the party.

During this recent interview, long-time trader Larry Williams, says the ‘Commercials’, i.e., those who know their business, have left the party (time stamp: 17:30).

The chart itself, showed record breaking thrust higher followed by a swift down-move.

This week started with GLD, posting a gap lower.

At this point, it’s (still) trying its best to close that gap.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The Fibonacci levels remain on the chart.

Note the 50%, ‘correction’ level, from the last update.

If last week’s high really was a significant reversal, it’s a long way down to 50%.

The fact GLD is struggling to close the gap, provides some confirmation the miners are in the same boat; possibly worse (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners & Elliott Wave

October 30, 2025 By in Elliott Wave, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Prechter, Retail Investor, ZeroHedge 5 Comments

Works Best Under Stress

Elliott Wave and Fibonacci are joined at the hip.

They work best when markets are emotional or under stress.

Historic moves like that of gold and silver, are such times (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ve already seen Fibonacci count(s) operating in the financial sector here and here.

So, let’s look at the miners and see what’s happening.

Senior Miners GDX, Daily Close

Five waves down; the direction of main trend has changed from up, to down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Recall, as long as the wave structure stays ‘in-effect’, the target area for the counter-trend retrace is:

‘The previous 4th-wave of lesser degree’, link here (click on ‘Corrective Waves’ and scroll to ‘Depth of Corrective Waves’).

That area is indicated by the magenta oval.

While the potential corrective wave grinds higher, ‘retail’ moves in to buy the dip, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold’s ‘Shocking’ Reversal

October 28, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, Dollar, Ed Dowd, GLD, Gold & Silver, Ox Talks, Semiconductors, Thoughtful Money, UUP 1 Comment

… And ‘Dollar Debasement’

‘When the trade gets a name, it’s over’. Ed Dowd

His assessment on the ‘dollar debasement’ trade, comments on gold, can be found here.

Gold dropped -50%, during the last melt-down, ’07 – ’08; it could do the same again (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, we’re looking at gold (GLD) from a strategic standpoint.

Meaning, it’s a long-term bull market, but where a sustained ‘correction’ may be at hand.

Gold GLD, Weekly

The trendline goes all the way back to the beginning of the GLD, fund.

Note the largest ever Force Index. Past similar actions either resulted in a sideways move, or reversal.

The Fibonacci projection tool, highlighted in magenta.

The projection levels are shown as blue lines. It’s clear, GLD is ‘respecting’ the levels.

A gold, GLD drop of 50% (from the 403.30, high), would put it at 201.65 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Margin Debt Increases

First, it was $1 Trillion.

Now, it’s $1.13 Trillion; discussed here.

While everyone’s looking for A.I. to burst (including this site), maybe the precious metals are going first.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … Boom & Bust

October 27, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, SIZ25, SLV

Retrace Targets

We’ve just had an unprecedented launch to record levels, link here.

Eight trading days ago, price action pushed through levels not seen in two generations.

However, the next day, that all changed.

Looking at the front-month (December) futures contract SIZ25, price action itself, shows classic signs of a commodity blow-off top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Daily

Price tends to go where there are transactions.

From the March lows in 2020, to the (potential) blow-off top, the majority of transactions took place in the 21 – 24, area (i.e., ‘Support Zone’).

Remember, there’s that $1-Trillion in margin debt, just waiting to be ‘called’ if not so already.

Silver could get to retrace levels quickly or not at all.

The market itself will let us know the most probable outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279