Category Archives: Gold Miners

Deep ‘Kimchi’ Update … Newmont

May 11, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Michael Bordenaro, NEM, SBUX, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge Leave a comment

Setting Up For ‘Breakout’ or, ‘Digging-In’ …?

Gold’s near all-time highs, silver’s rebounded, testing recent highs; yet Newmont’s at a paltry 23.6%, retrace.

So, you tell me. What’s likely to happen to Newmont, if gold or silver head back lower, even just a little bit?

That dude in the picture, needs to keep on diggin’. 🙂

Wyckoff, In-The-Know

Years ago, Wyckoff told us not to pay any attention to the financial press, the local circus.

However, that does not mean he didn’t know what was going on. He did, and sometimes down to the penny.

We don’t know for sure what’s (really) happening with Newmont and the mining sector but among other things, it might have something to do with this, this, and this.

Even so, price action’s the truth; let’s look at our chief cook and bottle washer’s progress since the last update.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

The chart has expanded the Force Index (middle panel) for better clarity.

Going back to the last update, it had this to say:

“A reasonable expectation is NEM, retraces, testing the wide bar and volume before continuing to the downside or moving back higher to a breakout.”

Price action has done exactly that. It came down to test the wide (4/25/24) bar and then back up to resistance, where we are now.

The only thing missing at this point, is the breakout or reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Show Me, The Money

Anyone with two Latte’s rubbing together, knows the economy may (already) be in full-blown collapse.

Anecdotal (and factual) evidence of that can be found here, here and here.

Adding, Nemont itself is not doing well as evidenced by this recent (February) article about dividend cuts, asset sales.

Seems like everybody’s looking around for cash.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part IV

May 3, 2024 By in David Weis, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, SLV, Wyckoff, zsl Leave a comment

Below Resistance

When the upside comes to a halt, it’s the ‘evil manipulator’s’ fault.

At least, that’s the common lament from our friends and pundits, alike. 🙂

Just a reminder, the markets have always been manipulated.

Back in the day, Wyckoff understood this. He sought to find out through price action, the desired (market) outcome of those ‘manipulators’.

By using his technique and reading the tape, the most probable direction for silver (SLV) was either sideways congestion or downside reversal.

The last update, link here, had this to say:

“If we’re in an up-thrust about, to reverse lower or consolidate, this is the type of market behavior to expect (not advice, not a recommendation).”

From then, we see SLV has moved lower.

Silver SLV, Weekly

Can reversals themselves, be reversed?

Could SLV, somehow gain traction and move decidedly higher? As David Weis used to say, “Anything can happen”.

However, at this juncture, we have SLV closing lower the past two weeks. Volume was steady and elevated, indicating downside pressure.

Separately, the miners are struggling (especially the Juniors GDXJ) at resistance.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Struggle At The Top

May 1, 2024 By in DUST, Federal Reserve, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Interest Rates, JDST, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Looking Behind The Curtain

Did rates get lowered? … No? … Not Yet?

Well, maybe next time.

Good thing we’re not wasting time, talking about the circus rolling into town every two months or so.

It’s hard enough ignoring the ‘experts’ to remain focused on price action and the truth.

This update will be brief, self-explanatory.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly Close

Gold is near all-time highs but Silver along with Platinum and Palladium are far below their respective highs.

This is not what you would expect to see in a hyper-inflation scenario.

The Juniors have been struggling at the axis line, now resistance line, for several weeks.

Today’s non-event, may be the catalyst, taking the punch bowl away from the six-week rally (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Deep Kimchi Decision

April 27, 2024 By in Biotech, Bloor Street Capital, Ed Dowd, Genesis 41, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, NEM, Real Estate, XBI 3 Comments

Time To Round Up, The Loonies?

If there’s one market attracting huge numbers of grifters, carpetbaggers, peddlers, and all-around crazies, it’s precious metals.

I’ve been hearing from this crowd, ‘the government’s going to collapse, the dollar’s going to collapse’, since the early 1980s.

As said many times before, I like precious metals as much as the next guy.

However, from a strategy standpoint, with each passing day, we see it’s the food supply (here, and here) that comes first (not advice, not a recommendation).

What’s currently taking place is so much more complicated (in my opinion) than just ‘stacking’.

Let’s not forget the flood of ‘fake’ or ‘diluted‘ precious metals and other chicanery; like having your coin-shop bank account closed for no apparent reason.

Well, we have to keep the loonies on the path which brings us to our case in point, Newmont Mining, NEM.

Newmont, Good News is Bad News

Gold price has moved higher over the past four to five months and expectedly, that’s been noted in Newmont’s latest Quarterly release, link here.

NEM, stock price at ‘nine-month highs’, what’s not to like?

It’s when we look at the chart, we see a different story.

Newmont Mining, NEM, Weekly

After all the ‘good news’, NEM has only retraced an anemic 23.6%, of its overall downside move.

Note the close on Friday was right at the 23.6% level, giving it even more significance.

This level has also become an ‘axis line’ as exhibited by price action going back to August of 2022.

By The Numbers

When looking through the major sectors, retrace (and reversal) from 23.6%, is becoming more frequent.

Two other indices posting and reversing from that level (measured from recent highs), are biotech XBI, and real estate, IYR.

NEM, What’s Next?

Thursday, 4/25, was a wide bar with heavy volume.

We’ve stopped at the retrace, which is also resistance, confirmed by price action in late December. ’23.

A reasonable expectation is NEM, retraces, testing the wide bar and volume before continuing to the downside or moving back higher to a breakout (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Reversal or Recovery?

April 18, 2024 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Prechter, Wyckoff

The Shills Emerge

‘…. and reminds you, she was only in it, for the money ….’ Steve Goodman

Seems like any time gold or silver blips higher, the shills come out; a new book to sell, more metals to peddle.

Obviously, what’s presented on this site, is neither; we’re searching for the truth, market truth, nothing else.

When looking at Junior Mining (ETF) Index, GDXJ, once again, it’s at The Danger Point®.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Fibonacci 8-Day

The 8-Day chart gives us a clear view of the action.

There was an up-thrust during the week of April 14th, 2023.

Now, a Fibonacci 55 (-2) weeks later, another one during the week of April 12th.

Last Time, Is Not, This Time

The up-thrust in April ’23, resulted in a steady but choppy downside action until the bottom, February, this year.

Using Prechter’s ‘rule of alternation’, whatever happens from here, it’s not likely to be what happened last time.

So, essentially, we have two potential outcomes; strengthening with continued upside, or a swift decline back to support levels (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Trap Set?

March 13, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bonds, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IWM, Life Insurance, MET, NVDA, SOXX, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, XBI 4 Comments

Is The Fear Exhausted?

It’s a confusing time.

Semiconductors with chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, seem to be reversing. Other sectors like biotech and mid-caps were never part of the mania.

Add to that, biotech and life insurance may be correlated (more on that, in another update).

As the market looks to pivot lower, bonds are also pivoting lower or at least under pressure.

In response, one can say there’s been sort of a panic into the mining sector GDX, GDXJ; like it’s somehow more safe there.

Let’s see if the miners really are the safe-space.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

As the chart shows (as of 12:35 p.m., EST), we’re pushing into known resistance (blue line) at the 37.00, area.

There’s also a Fibonacci time frame. Today is ‘Day 55’, from the December 22nd high.

Not only are we at Day 55 from the 12/22/23 high, but we’re also at Day 21, from the February 13th, lows.

Essentially, GDXJ is about to post a Wyckoff up-thrust condition, the area for potential downside reversal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Up … Production Down

March 9, 2024 By in BA, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, NEM

New Highs As Supply Contracts

Is it as simple as being stuck between supply and demand?

If so, does that mean gold’s new highs have nothing (or very little) to do with inflation?

Over a year ago, was this post, proposing the following insight for gold (GLD):

“Maybe it’s because of scarcity (along with nearly everything else) that’s causing the increase in price.”

We can see from this link, world-wide production dropped in 2020, and has remained lower.

That is at least, an alternate reason for the increase in price.

Then, Newmont, NEM

Let’s not forget, in the above post was Newmont Mining, forming a ‘terminating wedge’, ready to break lower.

On Friday, January 20, 2023, one day before the update, NEM closed at 53.34.

The following week, three trading days later, NEM posted a high of 55.41, and rolled over; currently down a stiff 35.4%, at 33.91.

Miners In Decline, Why?

Gold’s at new highs, while miners GDX, GDXJ, are in a multi-year decline. Why?

Let’s answer the question with a question.

Why is Boeing (BA) and the airlines in decline? Why has there been one aviation incident after another like here, here and here?

Why are we having investigations like this and this?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont Mining … Still In Trouble

March 5, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NEM, Richie Naso, Wyckoff

Breakout Into Reversal?

Like a movie script, price action will play with your emotions.

As Richie Naso says, that’s what the market’s designed to do.

The miners GDX, GDXJ, launched higher over the past four trading days, giving the impression that, ‘this could be it, the big move’; however, the truth, the price action itself, tells a different story.

Let’s look at one of the big caps in the sector, Newmont.

Newmont Mining NEM, Daily

Newmont has pushed past known resistance (magenta line) straight into the 38.2% retrace area.

When this type of breakout occurs, it’s called Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ position; that is, a potential false breakout.

When we have the largest bubble conditions in market history, there may be no safe place to hide … that could include the miners as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont Breaks Lower

February 22, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, NEM, NVDA

But, What About ‘Inflation’ ?

With today’s earnings release, Newmont’s chance at an upside breakout has failed.

Include an earnings miss, dividend cut, and we have probabilities weighted for continued downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Reading the press releases, one gets the impression, Newmont’s battening down the hatches, preparing for a collapse.

If gold is supposed to launch higher, why all the divestiture, raising cash, paying down debt?

Miners Bear Market

The last update on the miners, link here, had the Juniors testing their trading channel.

Since then, price action drifted higher for one additional day, then reversed to the downside.

That’s where we are now.

To be fair, GDXJ price action has just filled a gap (as of 11:45 a.m., EST). From here, there could be some kind of upside attempt.

However, probabilities are low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Markets Go Berserk

While all eyes are on Nvidia’s (NVDA) last gasp of a delusional mania, the mining sector continues lower.

It’s quietly telling us there’s something wrong with the ‘inflation’ narrative (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

D.R. Horton ‘Rolls Over’

February 17, 2024 By in DHI, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Interest Rates, NVDA, QQQ, Real Estate, SLV, SOXX, SPY, TLT, ZeroHedge

When Real Estate Goes …

It’s been said, ‘when real estate goes, everything goes’.

Like a slow-motion train wreck, since late January, this site’s been watching the (potential) topping activity of D.R. Horton, DHI.

Now, DHI is reversing; coincident with the housing starts collapse, link here.

D.R. Horton, DHI Weekly Close

We’re right at the top of the ‘terminating wedge’.

Downside penetration and test will provide confirmation of the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

The major market indices appear to be topping out as well.

The SOXX, may have reversed. Trading was ‘outside-down’ during yesterday’s session.

The SPY, and QQQ, also posted outside-down.

The potential Nvidia, NVDA reversal (link here) shows that so far, that high has not been exceeded.

Rates Up, Not Down

Adding gasoline to the fire, part of this site’s strategy is rates are going higher, not lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

So far, we see that’s true with long bonds (TLT) reversing to the downside, yet again.

And Then … Gold

Let’s not leave out the latest bullish report on gold (and silver), link here.

Notice the bias … that silver’s cheap relative to gold.

How about the massive, multi-year, ‘non-confirmation‘ between gold and the other monetary metals.

If it was real 1980s style inflation, everything would be moving up in tandem … which it is not; something else is going on.

Is the mining sector, GDX, GDXJ, anticipating a price decline in gold?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279