The ProLogis ‘Connection’

Largest Cap, In The IYR

The French Connection

As with Newmont Mining in the Senor Miners Index GDX, ProLogis is the largest market cap in the Real Estate Index, IYR.

When markets ‘thin-out’, when they reach the end of a long sustained bull move, capital exits the lower caps, the lesser performers, and is thrown into the last man standing; the largest cap(s) in the sector.

In can be argued, that’s where we are now with IYR.

Friday’s Wipe-Out

As expected, because of the near thousand point drop in the Dow, YouTube’s abuzz with everyone attempting to figure out what’s going to happen this coming Monday.

The Maverick does an excellent job (linked here) of posing the question, ‘Where are we’?

He doesn’t even bother with are we in a market collapse; that’s pretty much a no-brainer. It’s the ‘where’ in the collapse, that’s the question.

Real Estate … What’s Next?

From this site’s perspective, we’ll let the market itself tell us what’s likely to happen next.

Since the focus over the past week has been real estate (IYR), let’s look at the largest cap ProLogis PLD, to get clues on the next potential action.

ProLogis PLD, Weekly Chart

First, we’ll look at the big picture.

PLD was vaporized in the last market collapse.

We should also note, it took about 12-years to get back to pre-crash levels; good ‘ol ‘buy and hold’ 🙂

Of course, a multi-year covered call strategy could have been implemented if maintaining long. With that approach, PLD could have potentially become a cash-cow.

Crash Clues

Note on the chart above, PLD didn’t just up and crash; it gave clues well beforehand.

We’ll go into those clues in a later update.

For now, let’s look at next week’s probable action.

ProLogis PLD, Daily Chart

First, the un-marked chart to show where action finished up on Friday.

Next, we see an upthrust, test and sharp reversal.

Price action finished at support and just below the lows set on Monday, the 18th and Monday the 25th.

Wide, high-volume bars tend to get tested.

So, we’re below the lows with a wide high-volume bar. That puts PLD, in spring position.

Summary

Because PLD and IYR (and the rest of the indices) finished at or near their lows, there may be some downside follow-through this coming Monday.

Price action’s the final arbiter but there’s potential for some kind of upside test in the coming week(s).

As a courtesy, the DRV chart below shows the entry location for DRV-22-02 (not advice, not a recommendation) and the current stop.

Note how liquidity has picked up over the last two weeks.

Friday’s volume of 309,800 shares, was the largest ever for the inverse fund.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Tea Leaves of CORN

Wyckoff … ‘Voodoo Science’

That’s how one YouTuber described the Wyckoff method.

Well, judge for yourself.

The analysis in question is linked here and the video is here.

If you look at the video closely, the area called out as the ‘secondary test’ can also be identified as a ‘spring’ set-up.

Note how that spring goes straight into an up-thrust; the one being discussed at time stamp: 0:34.

Wyckoff analysis is both science and intuition.

The good part is discernment, the ability to intuitively perceive events, is a God-given gift.

By definition, no amount of Artificial Intelligence can fully replicate that ability.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the people J.P. Sears refers to at time stamp 3:26, won’t try.

So, let’s move on to the market at hand; corn and more specifically, Teucrium tracking fund CORN.

CORN, Weekly

From the week of the Derecho breakout to this past Friday’s close, is a Fibonacci 89-Weeks.

Friday’s weekly bar was also a reversal.

The week closed with the highest net negative volume since the week of October 15th, 2021.

Looking closer at the volume, we see the large spike during the week ended March 4th, followed by successive weeks of elevated volume.

There’s also a terminating wedge with a potential throw-over; similar to what’s happening in Newmont Mining (NEM).

This market appears to be ripe for chaos.

Hitting The Mainstream

Adding to the probability for some kind of ‘event’, the price of corn is hitting the mainstream.

Throw in some real or fake news on food processing plants and the pressure for government to ‘do something’ continues to build.

Summary

The opportunity to go long CORN was way back at the Derecho.

At this point, prices are elevated to the point where risk appears to be increasing … potentially leading to a momentary price spike downward (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that happens, there’s likely to be chaos for several days as clearing firms either slow their payments, halt/cancel trades, or go bankrupt altogether … similar to what happened during the London Metal Exchange melt-down.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont’s New Highs

How Long Will This Last ?

Looking at the charts below, the amount capital being thrown at the last man standing, NEM, is stunning.

A real sustainable precious metals (and stocks) bull market typically starts with the weakest sectors.

They are the ones in the worst financial shape. They are the ones to benefit the most from an increase in metals prices.

That’s not happening.

Instead, we have what looks to be a market thinning out, on a massive scale.

Everything being poured into the leader … Newmont.

The charts below are from Monday’s close. Scroll up and down to get a ‘feel’ for what’s really happening.

It’s a bull market, non-confirmation on a huge scale.

Basically, the rest of the market, the rest of the Senior Miners and Juniors, don’t believe current conditions are sustainable.

How could they be?

Let’s get real and pose even the most basic questions.

How are these operations going to get spare parts or new equipment for their operations? How are they going to feed their employees?

Lastly, what about the ones that have forced their workforce to be injected?

Newmont (NEM), Weekly Close

Senior Miners, GDX, Weekly Close

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

The price action alone, tells us capital is flowing out of all sectors and into Newmont (NEM).

Just to make sure the herd continues to herd; that no-one else, is presenting this information, here’s a brief list of recent ‘analysis’.

Me-Too: Gold To The Moon

Will Gold give a Massive Breakout From it’s Sideways Trend ? Lyn Alden Prediction

Gold & Silver Breakout | On Track to Go Higher

GOLD Prices Will Not Stop RISING!! BUY GOLD Before This Happens.. – Chris Vermeulen | Prediction

Gold Breakout: Breakaway Gaps Confirmed

Silver Will Hit $1200/OZ as Russia Invades Ukraine – Lynette Zang | Silver Price Prediction

Gold price rally will power to $2,700, then $7,400 as ‘perfect storm’ brews – Chris Vermeulen

__________________________________________________

A Different View

Momentum indicators are pointing higher for both gold and the miners … that does not mean it’s a buy (not advice, not a recommendation).

For both GDX, and GDXJ, they’re entering up-thrust (potential reversal) territory as discussed in a previous post.

It’s time to monitor the sector for potential exhaustion and change of momentum.

That momentum could take a while to bleed-off … being patient is just one requirement for successful speculation.

Summary

From the panic, you would think no one’s ever seen a down market. On top of that, we’re potentially just getting underway.

This is the exact environment where Wycoff analysis comes to the fore: ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’

That analysis says, gold and the miners could still push a bit higher but there are huge disconnects under the surface; not the least of which, silver’s also not confirming the move.

More on that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Straight Talk On Gold

The Air’s Going Out

It’s time for the truth on gold and the miners.

Before we get to the charts, we’re going to start with an unlikely source:

Dr. Vernon Coleman

His latest video post is here; it’s important to watch in its entirety.

At time stamp 13:30, in the link, he says that restrictions are backing off, not because of any real change of conditions; no, they’re backing off to clear room for the next scam.

Useful Idiots

For obvious lies to have any effect, one has to have a whole pack of idiots to believe them.

The last post showed with the anecdotal ‘Target’ update, of that, there is no shortage.

So how does one think a dirty, dangerous mining operation is going to be functional with an ever declining or impaired workforce coupled with a potential ‘climate lockdown’?

Let’s not forget, these operations are also working to solve problems that don’t exist (i.e. ‘sustainability’ and ‘net zero’).

Was it like this in 1929 ?

The latest post from Economic Ninja, talks about the market becoming more “narrow” … which is just an alternate term for “thinning-out”.

All of this brings us to the market at hand: Gold and the miners.

Newmont Mining (NEM):

We’ll go straight to the inverted daily chart of NEM:

This prior post did an excellent job showing the potential bearish reversal conditions for NEM.

However, there’s at least one more bearish condition and that is, ‘up-thrust’.

Remember, that if it’s ‘up-thrust’ on the regular chart, it becomes ‘spring’ on the inverted.

The zoom chart below shows price action has come back to test support quickly; an indication the downside thrust cleared out the weak hands and allowed strong hands to take positions.

We’re talking ‘inverted’ here.

So, what’s likely happened in the real (non-inverted) world:

The herd has bought into the inflation narrative.

They think Newmont, the miners and the gold market, are breaking out to the upside. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the professionals have likely used the opportunity to sell or sell-short.

Back In The Day

Way back in the day, when Steven Van Metre, still had his 1970s wood-paneled office, he used to talk about how the Fed knows its actions are deflationary.

Also, how the Fed was in no way going to educate the public; so, they let that public believe that it’s all about inflation and dollar destruction.

The herd is nearly always on the wrong side of the trade. Here’s a blast from the past to help make that case.

Data Dump & Asset Transfer

With so many bits of data swirling around like Cryptos, Digital Dollar, UBI, Supply Chain Destruction, Depopulation, Neo Feudalism, and on, who of us in the proletariat, really know how it’s all going to play out?

However, there’s one thing of which, we can be sure:

It’s an asset transfer of Biblical proportion.

Next On The Schedule

This post is already long and we’ve not discussed the mining indices and downside projections.

Depending on price action or news, we’ll cover that in tomorrow’s update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … End of the Thinning ?

There are violent moves today in gold; both gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX.

One could think, maybe rightly so, the whole market, the miners, gold and silver, are kicking off a massive bull run.

On the surface, it looks that way.

Looking deeper, maybe not.

It could be a test of the November ’21, reversal.

Looking at charts of both Newmont and Senior Miners, GDX (we’ll cover gold tomorrow), the prior assessment, the market’s thinning-out applies even more.

Everything possible is being thrown into the last man standing: Newmont.

The violence of these moves is obvious.

Newmont (NEM) and GDX: Daily Charts

We’re going to put the unmarked chart of Newmont (NEM) and GDX directly below. The key takeaway is how far above NEM, is from its mid-November highs.

Then, look at GDX and note, it’s close but well below its mid-November highs.

This market (Senior Miners) continues to thin out … and it’s doing it violently.

Newmont (NEM):

Senior Miners, GDX:

Looking at the marked-up chart of GDX, it’s possible all of the action over the past two months, was to get into position to test the upthrust:

If an up-thrust “test” is the correct way to view this action, with gold (GLD) in a similar position, and if price action can’t hold these levels, the ensuing downside stands to be even more violent.

Run Fast, Or Not At All

Before the end of this session, DUST-21-01, will be reduced to be in compliance with margin requirements.

At mid-session, that reduction would be in the area of 12% of position size (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont: Fibonacci Count

Reversal Posting Fibonacci Sequence

In what seems to be a surreal exercise, waiting to see what’s going to happen next, Newmont (NEM), is posting Fibonacci counts in its nascent reversal (thus far).

The usual suspects are out on YouTube … touting the next bull move in gold and the miners.

However, the market itself is saying it’s not convinced.

This is another brief update to show Newmont has apparently reversed; posting Fibonacci counts on the initial downswing and what looks to be the upward test.

Newmont (NEM) Daily Chart With Fibonacci Count(s)

It’s up to the market itself to say today was the top of the reversal test … or something else is going on and we may indeed have the gold miners in the beginning stages of a bull move.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Time Tunnel … GDX

Rendezvous With The Future?

Are gold and the miners destined to collapse?

Are the miners on some choreographed mission to take out themselves, the gold bulls, and ‘stackers’ in one fell swoop?

At the bottom (if there is a bottom) will Newmont, be the sole-survivor or will some other mining entity emerge as the next leader?

Year 2022: When It All Hits

As Bjorn Bull-Hansen has suggested in this post, we’re potentially just months (maybe weeks) away from a mass-awakening.

That is, there’s no, or very little food.

What food there is, seems to get mysteriously wiped-out by some never-before-seen weather event.

It turns out that precious metals and the grains, i.e., wheat, soybean, and corn are at this juncture, inversely correlated.

Gold & Grains: Inverse Correlation

What kind of nonsense is this?

I thought we were supposed to be in a hyper-inflation event. I mean, the financial press is aghast about it. The YouTuber’s have jumped on and provided their own non-thinking “me too” assessment.

How can it possibly be any different?

The official narrative has been sanctioned by the press and YouTuber’s alike. It’s a consensus!!!

Let’s put it this way, if your (or my) favorite YouTuber is not being harassed, shut down or otherwise ‘cancelled’, are they really offering any useful information?

So, what gives?

How can gold, precious metals and the miners be inversely correlated with grains and/or corn?

Well, ok. Let’s take a look.

Below is an un-marked daily chart of gold proxy, GLD.

Can you pick out the ‘Derecho of 2020?

Let’s put in a big arrow showing when that crop-destroying inland hurricane (just before harvest … how convenient) showed up:

Below is a daily chart of tracking fund CORN; showing the correlation.

The markets in corn and gold never looked back.

Now we have this report from ice age farmer, just out. Trucking shipments between U.S. and Canada could be reduced by 15% or more.

As a result, food shipments are likely to be impacted starting this month.

Sustainable, Self-Implosion

If the negative correlation between gold and the grains wasn’t enough, we also have the controlled demolition of ‘sustainability‘ being put in place as well.

Tony Heller was part of the YouTube purge a few years back. He wound up being one of the first major hitters moving to NewTube.

Sporting no fewer than five science degrees … one of them being Master of Electrical Engineering from Rice University, he has systematically dismantled the propaganda and cult of climate change.

As with our second link above (repeated here) the only climate change of note, is the one being sprayed in. 🙂

So, most if not all major corporations are implementing plans, that by definition (unless reversed) will ultimately result in their own collapse.

After all, if you’re implementing plans and actions to address something that’s not there, what are you doing about any real tangible problems in the company?

Back to the topic at hand.

Senior Miners, GDX.

As stated in the first paragraphs above, GDX seems to be on some kind of time-tunnel mission.

Yesterday, it was shown how GDX is in a huge trading channel … with Friday’s price action potentially confirming the right side.

Next up, scheduled for tomorrow are specific and repeating Fibonacci time correlations between GDX inflection points and channel widths.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Chart Speaks …

Massive Trading Channel In GDX

The past week has been a frustrating one being short the gold market.

Is the current trade, DUST-21-01, in a correction or an outright reversal?

It’s in the green (not advice, not a recommendation) but seems like it’s taking forever to get moving.

Paraphrasing Dr. Elder; He says ‘when in doubt, pull out (or farther out).’

So, we’re going to do just that.

Senior Miners, GDX

The un-marked daily chart is below. The second one is the same but inverted (to approximate inverse fund DUST).

Inverted

From the blank charts, it’s not immediately obvious.

However, the chart below shows GDX in a massive trading channel.

On top of that, today (Friday) may have been contact and verification of the right-side channel line. We won’t know for sure, until next week.

There’re about nine-months of trading action which also includes the two months to create the up-thrust set-up.

Sitting Back

If you sit back and take it all in, one begins to realize the enormity of what’s going on.

The up-thrust set-up was formed in two months. The channel itself, the bigger picture is nearly a year of price action.

From the inverted chart, the spike (downward) December 15th to now, is when the market thinned-out.

That’s when based on the data, funds flowed out of the senior miners and (some of it) into the last man standing; Newmont (NEM).

The stage is set.

Summary

Trades can fail. Anything can happen. That’s a given in the markets.

However, it looks like GDX is at another critical juncture.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

And Then, There Was One …

Newmont Pushes To Extreme

When a profitable position begins to erode, the questions begin.

Is it just a correction or a full-blown reversal; how do you know?

Of course, nothing is ever known for absolute sure.

However, in the case of the current trade DUST-21-01, which is a short position on GDX (not advice not a recommendation), the market’s exhibiting what looks like terminal (reversal) behavior.

Of all the thirty-one equities in the Senior Miners GDX, only one is above its mid-November highs: Newmont Mining.

Newmont, NEM

With Newmont getting all the attention, the view is the entire market is ‘thinning-out’.

In addition, price action in Newmont tends to suggest it’s exhibiting terminal behavior.

Daily chart below.

It looks like NEM has just ‘thrown-over’ its wedge pattern. Typically, the last gasp before reversal.

Zooming-in

Summary

With markets reaching new all-time highs yet again, the gold miners are showing they’re not invited to the party.

From a Wyckoff standpoint and for bear markets, the focus is on the laggards … not the ones at the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Unless the dynamic of GDX changes, and others in the index push past their mid-November highs, this market continues to look ready for reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Final Test ?

Newmont Edges Higher

Newmont continued to edge higher and posted a 1.09% gain for the session.

The rest of the sector, GDX barely moved at 0.10% gain.

The discrepancy suggests the market continues to thin-out; funds exit the lower caps and are funneled into the only equity that’s above its mid-November highs; NEM.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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