Oil & Gas … Reversal ?

Yesterday, Was ‘Day 13’

Monday was Fibonacci ‘Day 13’ from the January 4th, XOP, lows.

With about fifteen-minutes before the open, pre-market action in the XOP leveraged inverse fund DRIP, is trading slightly higher at 12.67.

So, was yesterday the day? Has XOP topped-out and now in the process of reversal?

As always with the markets, the price action itself, will show us the truth.

However, what can be stated with some confidence, is that we’re at a low-risk point for going short (not advice, not a recommendation).

‘Low-risk’, does NOT mean ‘no-risk’

XOP, New Low or New High

It’s somewhat straightforward at this point.

If XOP, posts a new daily low, it increases the probability of reversal. If it posts a new daily high, then price action is possibly on to new all-time highs.

Oil & Gas XOP, Daily Close

The daily chart shows the labored six weeks of rounded top that’s identified as ‘Up-Thrust’.

At present, XOP is testing the underside of that Up-Thrust.

The zoom version of the chart shows the amount of upside effort expended during the rounded top.

Price action spent over a month attempting to move higher, only to collapse into a downside reversal.

Now, we can see that wide price action area is being tested; not unlike the Newmont test as described here.

It’s what the market does.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil … Gas … Gold & Newmont

Markets, At Critical Juncture

Nemont Mining (NEM), Gold, and the Oil & Gas Sector are at a critical juncture.

The rest of the major indices, Dow, S&P, QQQs, real estate (IYR), and so on, are in a similar position.

For this update, we’ll focus on Newmont (NEM), as it’s the largest cap in the Senior Mining Sector GDX, and a general representative of the commodities markets.

Financial collapse is a process, not an event.

Newmont topped-out in April, of last year. Exxon, the proxy for the Oil & Gas sector, may have reached its highs this past November.

Where’s The Inflation?

As Michael Cowan has just reported, banks are absconding with depositor’s money under the guise of ‘bail-in’.

If the fiat cash is so worthless, why are banks seizing it?

As Robert Prechter Jr., said years ago, ‘all fiat cash ultimately goes to zero’; the end game (most likely) for the dollar. However, it could be months, years, or even a decade before that happens.

For right now, today, this minute, the data is showing us, the banks want the money; ‘Show me the money‘.

With that, let’s look at the non-existent ‘inflation’ in the mining sector.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

The first chart identifies the heavy volume and then test of wide price bars. This behavior is common in the markets; they tend to come back and test wide high-volume areas.

Next, we see there’s a terminating wedge developing as volume declines; the inference, is lack of significant commitment at these price levels.

We’ll get close-in on the wedge; last week printed a lower weekly low and closed lower for the week.

There’s no breakdown of the wedge … yet.

At this juncture, it’s up to the bulls to show they’re still in control.

Inflation vs. Scarcity

We have without a doubt, the effects of the event from the past three years gaining momentum. Whether or not those effects reach a peak this year, is unknown.

A lot of the mainstream and YouTuber’s alike talk about the upward move in gold as the result of ‘inflation’.

Here’s a little bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else; how about gold rising because the above mentioned ‘effects‘ are causing production volumes to decline?

Maybe it’s because of scarcity (along with nearly everything else) that’s causing the increase in price.

Just to drive that idea home, the latest total gold production numbers, listed here.

Gold production for 2020 dropped -8.2%, from the year prior. Year 2021 was down -1%, from 2020.

From 2010 to 1019, gold production increased or was flat year over year … that is, until 2020.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

There’s No … ‘Santa Rally’

Forecasted Months Ago … Now, Playing Out

Let’s start with the post from way back in September, linked here.

Back then, it said (emphasis added):

It’s going to be a very different place come December.

This won’t be like ’08 -’09, where all the stops are being pulled to ‘rescue’ the market.

No, this time really is different.

We can all see by now; the plan is controlled demolition.

That was then. Fast forward to now.

ZeroHedge has come out with the obvious. If there’s going to be a Santa Rally, it needs to start soon.

Good luck with that.

Instead of looking for a rally, we’ve moved on from that (unlikely) potential to something different, linked here.

That link is not a forecast. It’s there to remind us, the potential for what can happen.

One group that just won’t let go of the (sustainable) rally scenario are the gold bugs.

Seems like with every ‘blip’ higher we have articles like this one, this one, and this one.

So, let’s take a look at a the largest cap in the mining sector, Newmont and see what the price action is telling us.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

First, we have the un-marked chart and right off the bat, it does not look good; down -45.4%, from all-time highs.

It looks even worse, when the resistance zone is added.

So far, price action has already stalled and not been able to hold within the resistance zone.

It’s important to note, this resistance area is over two years wide. it’s not likely that anything’s going to happen to the upside without numerous attempts.

No ‘Clicks’, In A Gold Bear Market

If buying gold was the answer to getting through the financial, economic and societal collapse, then one would think the price would be moving relentlessly higher.

That’s not happening … not by a long shot.

What is happening, is this: Demand destruction on a colossal scale.

This destruction is on the birth side and the death side.

These events are affecting everything, going forward.

Nailing The Reversals

Using Wyckoff analysis, this site has been able to identify reversals in gold and the miners at times, to the day.

Important pivot points are here, here, here, and here,

Once again, at this juncture, we’re at a potential reversal in silver, gold, and the miners.

It’s about 15-minutes before the open. NEM is trading slightly higher by about 1.00%.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont Mining’s Collapse

Where’s The ‘Inflation’?

As if on cue to support the prior post highlighting silver’s ‘mysterious’ decline, we have this just out, on Newmont Mining.

Newmont’s in free-fall.

For long-time visitors to this site, today’s events should be no surprise.

These reports, here and here, posted back in April, identified reversals in gold miners GDXJ, and implicitly GDX, to the day.

We’ll include a quote from the first linked report below:

“It’s a fairly safe assessment, nobody expects a downside reversal … nobody”.

And yet, here we are.

As the administration and the financial press, becomes ever more confused and bipolar; even now, re-defining the long-held definition of ‘recession’, we have Wyckoff analysis time and again, cutting through the media trash to determine the highest probability for the market.

Newmont Mining (NEM) Weekly

The chart below has current conditions for Newmont.

Also shown is the location of the first post linked above, released before Newmont began its decline.

At this juncture, NEM has penetrated long established support; technically it’s in ‘spring position’.

The expectation is for some kind of (weak) rally attempt. We’ll see if it’s able to get back above support.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … After The Reversal

Changing of Hands’

It’s a significant, if not major event, when one market participant (collectively) hands off the trading vehicle to another.

In a decline, that usually means the ‘average investor’, the least disciplined, least knowledgeable, gives up and hands off to the professionals; the ‘strong hands’.

In a blow-off top, the reverse is true.

The professionals lead the ignorant along with whatever narrative is necessary so that enough volume is created to successfully exit positions.

The changing of hands for gold and gold miners, was identified on this site, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here, starting over two-and-a-half months ago.

The analysis was consistent throughout; we are not in a long-term, sustainable, bull market. That stance applied most specifically to gold miners GDX, and GDXJ.

For that assessment to change, price action itself would have to change character; not the lagging momentum indicators, moving averages, price oscillators and so on that are themselves, defined by price action.

So, let’s take a look at what gold (GLD) is saying about itself.

Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart

First, the un-marked chart.

Next, we see a medium to long term trendline that’s been decisively broken and tested.

Getting closer-in, we can see the oscillation about the line, the break and subsequent test (with reversal).

What’s Next?

Well, that brings us to Harry Dent.

Love him or hate him. Here he is, offering up a perspective that’s not going to be popular.

How can gold (GLD) decline from here?

Let’s take a look.

If the wedge above is in-effect, if it’s the dominant factor at this point, then a break depending on location would take GLD down to about 130-ish.

If that happens, it will be a big event … down to approximately $1,300/oz.

However, it’s what may come next, that will be totally unexpected.

It’s interesting, the wedge in blue has a measured move target right to the bottom of the larger wedge in magenta.

To get below $900/oz, will be a very different place.

With that in mind, this site has presented time and again, we’re in an unprecedented world-event.

‘Normal’ is not coming back … ever.

Awake, or Not

Jerimiah Babe, in one of his latest videos hints there’s a strange vibe to what’s happening: Time stamp 5:20,

‘There’s something going on here …’

The Fed may actually be telling us the truth … just not in the way we expect.

You have to be awake to read between the lines.

Inflation may indeed be ‘transitory’ as they say because consumer demand is going to evaporate.

Evaporate not because the consumer can’t afford it, but because there are, or will be, no consumers.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


The ProLogis ‘Connection’

Largest Cap, In The IYR

The French Connection

As with Newmont Mining in the Senor Miners Index GDX, ProLogis is the largest market cap in the Real Estate Index, IYR.

When markets ‘thin-out’, when they reach the end of a long sustained bull move, capital exits the lower caps, the lesser performers, and is thrown into the last man standing; the largest cap(s) in the sector.

In can be argued, that’s where we are now with IYR.

Friday’s Wipe-Out

As expected, because of the near thousand point drop in the Dow, YouTube’s abuzz with everyone attempting to figure out what’s going to happen this coming Monday.

The Maverick does an excellent job (linked here) of posing the question, ‘Where are we’?

He doesn’t even bother with are we in a market collapse; that’s pretty much a no-brainer. It’s the ‘where’ in the collapse, that’s the question.

Real Estate … What’s Next?

From this site’s perspective, we’ll let the market itself tell us what’s likely to happen next.

Since the focus over the past week has been real estate (IYR), let’s look at the largest cap ProLogis PLD, to get clues on the next potential action.

ProLogis PLD, Weekly Chart

First, we’ll look at the big picture.

PLD was vaporized in the last market collapse.

We should also note, it took about 12-years to get back to pre-crash levels; good ‘ol ‘buy and hold’ 🙂

Of course, a multi-year covered call strategy could have been implemented if maintaining long. With that approach, PLD could have potentially become a cash-cow.

Crash Clues

Note on the chart above, PLD didn’t just up and crash; it gave clues well beforehand.

We’ll go into those clues in a later update.

For now, let’s look at next week’s probable action.

ProLogis PLD, Daily Chart

First, the un-marked chart to show where action finished up on Friday.

Next, we see an upthrust, test and sharp reversal.

Price action finished at support and just below the lows set on Monday, the 18th and Monday the 25th.

Wide, high-volume bars tend to get tested.

So, we’re below the lows with a wide high-volume bar. That puts PLD, in spring position.

Summary

Because PLD and IYR (and the rest of the indices) finished at or near their lows, there may be some downside follow-through this coming Monday.

Price action’s the final arbiter but there’s potential for some kind of upside test in the coming week(s).

As a courtesy, the DRV chart below shows the entry location for DRV-22-02 (not advice, not a recommendation) and the current stop.

Note how liquidity has picked up over the last two weeks.

Friday’s volume of 309,800 shares, was the largest ever for the inverse fund.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Tea Leaves of CORN

Wyckoff … ‘Voodoo Science’

That’s how one YouTuber described the Wyckoff method.

Well, judge for yourself.

The analysis in question is linked here and the video is here.

If you look at the video closely, the area called out as the ‘secondary test’ can also be identified as a ‘spring’ set-up.

Note how that spring goes straight into an up-thrust; the one being discussed at time stamp: 0:34.

Wyckoff analysis is both science and intuition.

The good part is discernment, the ability to intuitively perceive events, is a God-given gift.

By definition, no amount of Artificial Intelligence can fully replicate that ability.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the people J.P. Sears refers to at time stamp 3:26, won’t try.

So, let’s move on to the market at hand; corn and more specifically, Teucrium tracking fund CORN.

CORN, Weekly

From the week of the Derecho breakout to this past Friday’s close, is a Fibonacci 89-Weeks.

Friday’s weekly bar was also a reversal.

The week closed with the highest net negative volume since the week of October 15th, 2021.

Looking closer at the volume, we see the large spike during the week ended March 4th, followed by successive weeks of elevated volume.

There’s also a terminating wedge with a potential throw-over; similar to what’s happening in Newmont Mining (NEM).

This market appears to be ripe for chaos.

Hitting The Mainstream

Adding to the probability for some kind of ‘event’, the price of corn is hitting the mainstream.

Throw in some real or fake news on food processing plants and the pressure for government to ‘do something’ continues to build.

Summary

The opportunity to go long CORN was way back at the Derecho.

At this point, prices are elevated to the point where risk appears to be increasing … potentially leading to a momentary price spike downward (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that happens, there’s likely to be chaos for several days as clearing firms either slow their payments, halt/cancel trades, or go bankrupt altogether … similar to what happened during the London Metal Exchange melt-down.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont’s New Highs

How Long Will This Last ?

Looking at the charts below, the amount capital being thrown at the last man standing, NEM, is stunning.

A real sustainable precious metals (and stocks) bull market typically starts with the weakest sectors.

They are the ones in the worst financial shape. They are the ones to benefit the most from an increase in metals prices.

That’s not happening.

Instead, we have what looks to be a market thinning out, on a massive scale.

Everything being poured into the leader … Newmont.

The charts below are from Monday’s close. Scroll up and down to get a ‘feel’ for what’s really happening.

It’s a bull market, non-confirmation on a huge scale.

Basically, the rest of the market, the rest of the Senior Miners and Juniors, don’t believe current conditions are sustainable.

How could they be?

Let’s get real and pose even the most basic questions.

How are these operations going to get spare parts or new equipment for their operations? How are they going to feed their employees?

Lastly, what about the ones that have forced their workforce to be injected?

Newmont (NEM), Weekly Close

Senior Miners, GDX, Weekly Close

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

The price action alone, tells us capital is flowing out of all sectors and into Newmont (NEM).

Just to make sure the herd continues to herd; that no-one else, is presenting this information, here’s a brief list of recent ‘analysis’.

Me-Too: Gold To The Moon

Will Gold give a Massive Breakout From it’s Sideways Trend ? Lyn Alden Prediction

Gold & Silver Breakout | On Track to Go Higher

GOLD Prices Will Not Stop RISING!! BUY GOLD Before This Happens.. – Chris Vermeulen | Prediction

Gold Breakout: Breakaway Gaps Confirmed

Silver Will Hit $1200/OZ as Russia Invades Ukraine – Lynette Zang | Silver Price Prediction

Gold price rally will power to $2,700, then $7,400 as ‘perfect storm’ brews – Chris Vermeulen

__________________________________________________

A Different View

Momentum indicators are pointing higher for both gold and the miners … that does not mean it’s a buy (not advice, not a recommendation).

For both GDX, and GDXJ, they’re entering up-thrust (potential reversal) territory as discussed in a previous post.

It’s time to monitor the sector for potential exhaustion and change of momentum.

That momentum could take a while to bleed-off … being patient is just one requirement for successful speculation.

Summary

From the panic, you would think no one’s ever seen a down market. On top of that, we’re potentially just getting underway.

This is the exact environment where Wycoff analysis comes to the fore: ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’

That analysis says, gold and the miners could still push a bit higher but there are huge disconnects under the surface; not the least of which, silver’s also not confirming the move.

More on that, later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Straight Talk On Gold

The Air’s Going Out

It’s time for the truth on gold and the miners.

Before we get to the charts, we’re going to start with an unlikely source:

Dr. Vernon Coleman

His latest video post is here; it’s important to watch in its entirety.

At time stamp 13:30, in the link, he says that restrictions are backing off, not because of any real change of conditions; no, they’re backing off to clear room for the next scam.

Useful Idiots

For obvious lies to have any effect, one has to have a whole pack of idiots to believe them.

The last post showed with the anecdotal ‘Target’ update, of that, there is no shortage.

So how does one think a dirty, dangerous mining operation is going to be functional with an ever declining or impaired workforce coupled with a potential ‘climate lockdown’?

Let’s not forget, these operations are also working to solve problems that don’t exist (i.e. ‘sustainability’ and ‘net zero’).

Was it like this in 1929 ?

The latest post from Economic Ninja, talks about the market becoming more “narrow” … which is just an alternate term for “thinning-out”.

All of this brings us to the market at hand: Gold and the miners.

Newmont Mining (NEM):

We’ll go straight to the inverted daily chart of NEM:

This prior post did an excellent job showing the potential bearish reversal conditions for NEM.

However, there’s at least one more bearish condition and that is, ‘up-thrust’.

Remember, that if it’s ‘up-thrust’ on the regular chart, it becomes ‘spring’ on the inverted.

The zoom chart below shows price action has come back to test support quickly; an indication the downside thrust cleared out the weak hands and allowed strong hands to take positions.

We’re talking ‘inverted’ here.

So, what’s likely happened in the real (non-inverted) world:

The herd has bought into the inflation narrative.

They think Newmont, the miners and the gold market, are breaking out to the upside. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the professionals have likely used the opportunity to sell or sell-short.

Back In The Day

Way back in the day, when Steven Van Metre, still had his 1970s wood-paneled office, he used to talk about how the Fed knows its actions are deflationary.

Also, how the Fed was in no way going to educate the public; so, they let that public believe that it’s all about inflation and dollar destruction.

The herd is nearly always on the wrong side of the trade. Here’s a blast from the past to help make that case.

Data Dump & Asset Transfer

With so many bits of data swirling around like Cryptos, Digital Dollar, UBI, Supply Chain Destruction, Depopulation, Neo Feudalism, and on, who of us in the proletariat, really know how it’s all going to play out?

However, there’s one thing of which, we can be sure:

It’s an asset transfer of Biblical proportion.

Next On The Schedule

This post is already long and we’ve not discussed the mining indices and downside projections.

Depending on price action or news, we’ll cover that in tomorrow’s update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … End of the Thinning ?

There are violent moves today in gold; both gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX.

One could think, maybe rightly so, the whole market, the miners, gold and silver, are kicking off a massive bull run.

On the surface, it looks that way.

Looking deeper, maybe not.

It could be a test of the November ’21, reversal.

Looking at charts of both Newmont and Senior Miners, GDX (we’ll cover gold tomorrow), the prior assessment, the market’s thinning-out applies even more.

Everything possible is being thrown into the last man standing: Newmont.

The violence of these moves is obvious.

Newmont (NEM) and GDX: Daily Charts

We’re going to put the unmarked chart of Newmont (NEM) and GDX directly below. The key takeaway is how far above NEM, is from its mid-November highs.

Then, look at GDX and note, it’s close but well below its mid-November highs.

This market (Senior Miners) continues to thin out … and it’s doing it violently.

Newmont (NEM):

Senior Miners, GDX:

Looking at the marked-up chart of GDX, it’s possible all of the action over the past two months, was to get into position to test the upthrust:

If an up-thrust “test” is the correct way to view this action, with gold (GLD) in a similar position, and if price action can’t hold these levels, the ensuing downside stands to be even more violent.

Run Fast, Or Not At All

Before the end of this session, DUST-21-01, will be reduced to be in compliance with margin requirements.

At mid-session, that reduction would be in the area of 12% of position size (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279