Category Archives: SOXS-25-09

Support The SOXX, or Not

February 28, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-09, SOXX, Wyckoff

Holding Below Support

Holding on for its life, just below support.

That’s the current condition (as of 12:23 p.m., EST) of the SOXX.

When we look at the chart, penetration of a three-month support area is clear.

By definition, when support is penetrated, it puts the market in Wyckoff Spring condition; there will (typically) be some kind of attempt to rally.

That’s where we are now.

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

Note the black dashed trendline.

Research done on bubbles past, link here postulated at the break, the multi-year down leg begins (not advice, not a recommendation).

After the SOXX broke the trendline, it spent an incredible 10-weeks testing that break before reversing lower.

Positioning

From a price action standpoint, there’s nothing (yet) that says to exit a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stated above, SOXX is technically in ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher.

With that in mind, the stop for SOXS-25-09, has or will be moved up to the session low; currently at SOXS 22.31 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Update: 1:39 p.m., EST: Price action expected to continue unabated (downward) after the first half of the session, now showing some buoyancy: Discretionary exit of SOXS-25-09, profit +14.2%

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … BOOM !

February 27, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Positions, SOXS, SOXS-25-09, SOXX, Wyckoff

Well, That’s It

At the open, Nvidia came within 1-point of the target (61.8%), shown in the last update.

Then, it posted an outside-down bar within the first 25-minutes.

At this point (as of 11:28 a.m., EST), since yesterday’s low was penetrated, that puts NVDA, in a minor Wyckoff Spring condition, retracing some of the early session down move.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

The chart has been compressed, showing events appear to be taking place on a massive scale.

If the trading channel is in-effect (i.e., correct), look how far down we have to go for the ‘demand’ side.

The press and pundits are either not ready for such a move or are deflecting from actual events, links here and here.

Looks like ‘good enough’ didn’t last long:

At the open, NVDA down, immediately.

Positioning

With all the coverage put on this equity and sector, ETF, the SOXX, trading actions are matter of fact.

The sidebar shows another short via SOXS, opened early in the session. Trade is SOXS-25-09 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279