Tag Archives: markets

Russell 2000, Breakdown

January 10, 2025 By in David Weis, IWM, Russell 2000, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Short(s) Hanging On … Tight

Everyone seems to think, January 20th (if we ever get there), is going to bring a new era of ‘prosperity’.

We even have a hot-off-the-press, jobs number, magically appear to bolster the case (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price Action … Truth

The crux of Wyckoff analysis, proposed over a century ago, is that we’re to completely ignore the financial press.

The focus is to be on the action itself.

Doing that, identified a potential opportunity; Russell 2000 (IWM), presented as a possible short candidate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since that update (as of 11:13 a.m., EST), IWM is down near -4%, leveraged inverse fund TZA, up about +13%.

Possibly more important as we’ll see below, are the trendlines and channel(s).

Russell 2000 ETF, IWM, Daily

The grey (dashed) trendline has verified contact points on January 6th, 7th, 8th and today, the 10th.

The ‘reverse trendline’ technique is being used to identify the potential right side.

Reverse trendline, discussed in the David Weis training video, link here.

What’s Next?

The short answer is, it’s not known.

However, the probability is, for action to continue in the direction already established … that is, down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Watch for ‘Tight Action’

January 6, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, IWM, Russell 2000, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , 2 Comments

Coiled For A Move

How should the price action segment (at left) be marked up?

There are several Wyckoff analysis lessons and at least one empirical observation (made over several decades) in just the 16-bars of price action.

Empirical Observation

In a sense the prior update on Carvana (CVNA) illustrates the point.

When price action gets tight, something’s about to happen.

When that analysis was presented, little did we know, ‘Hindenburg‘ would come out and whack the stock.

So, let’s move on and mark up the chart … which just so happens to be the Russell 2000 ETF, IWM.

Russell 2000, IWM, Daily

The wide high-volume bar has been ‘tested’.

Price action penetrated lows posted December 20th; currently in spring condition that has (today) just posted into an up-thrust condition.

Repeating Pattern

From the late Wyckoff expert and mentor David Weis, spring-to-up-thrust is a repeating set-up, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ASML ‘Crash’

October 16, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, ASML, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-18, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: ,

It Really Is, A Crash

ASML down -21.8%, in just two days; the biggest downdraft in a quarter century.

A ‘premature’ earnings release was given as the excuse; like waiting one day longer was going to make the news better.

The important part, Wyckoff analysis techniques picked up on the SOXX index and highlighted ‘something’s up’.

Wyckoff Clues Ahead-of-Time

There was an aberration in volume (here), initially thought to be exhaustion.

Turns out, that concentrated volume was (potentially) preparation for the attempted breakout, link here.

Either way, the anomaly was identified and noted; resulting action was to position short; trade SOXS-24-18 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Market Stunned

Yesterday’s downdraft in the SOXX, was a -5%, loss.

Today, so far, shows a tight trading range in an attempt to test higher (as described here).

At this point, significantly higher, is not happening (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279