The Night Before Christmas

‘Twas the night before Christmas and all through the house, not a coward was stirring, not even a mouse.

They all had their masks, hiding in fear, in hopes the vax they heard about, soon would be here.

Jumping up in nightclothes and getting in line, they all got injected and then went Flat-Line.

When what to my amazement should appear, it was the “expert” doctor saying, it’s all in good cheer.

As the doc ate the cookies that had been left near, he said I just Vaxxed Santa, so he could be here.

But to my amazement, as the doc went on his way, I saw ‘ol Saint Nick a dead on his sleigh.

Not to worry fair cowards, all in good cheer, just put your mask on, go live in fear.

For those who are brave we all know the tale.  The brave die once only, and are forever regaled.

For the mask wearing cowards who die every day, we bid you farewell, to sleep on the hay.

Yes it’s the hay in the train, we’ve all seen the scene, of boxcars and all, it’s just a bad dream.

Now, the train’s at the camp, the showers are there, herding the mask wearers into their lair.

Sleep soundly you cowards, sleep with your mask. Sleep soundly, sleep soundly;

Go, get your Vax.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Danger Point Short, GDX (DUST)

As expected, this morning’s GDX action is testing yesterday’s wide price bars (shown on hourly chart).

The daily chart of inverse fund DUST is below:

The last report was posted a few hours before close. Afterward, GDX pushed slightly lower towards the bottom range of support.

That push lower in turn, lowered the retrace targets accordingly.

This morning’s upward GDX spike was a gift (as of 10:51 a.m EST) and a signal to go short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s important to note that all of this action is taking place during Christmas week; no one is looking.

The firm went short GDX at DUST:  20.09, early in the session.  Hard stop for DUST @ 19.69; not advice, not a recommendation.

Price action pushed slightly lower (to DUST 19.91, so far), before reversing.

This is the danger point. If the hyper-inflationists are right, it won’t take much of a move in GDX, to find out.

If we are in a deflation scenario, expectations are for today’s test levels to hold and for GDX to continue lower (DUST higher).

Separately, XOP is testing and filling the gap left from Monday’s open. 

If XOP reverses from here, the DUG stop could be moved up to today’s low (thus far) at DUG:  27.75.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Hyperinflation Gone Wrong

There’s something very wrong with the “hyperinflation” narrative.

The gold miners GDX can’t even get to a full 38% retrace level without collapsing.

Price action has negated the targets from the prior update

It should be clear at this point, a monstrous 5,600 page, so-called stimulus package is not inflationary.

For an irreverent look at what’s in that bill, reference “Salty Cracker”.

By the way, just how long does it take to write 5,600 pages?  A couple of years, maybe?

Probably as much time as it took to write the original CARES Act … which was submitted (put in committee) to Congress during January 2019 … a full nine months before anyone even heard of the “speck” in Wuhan.

The inference is, both of these bills were planned long ago and have been in the works for years.

Which brings us to gold and the miners.

The hourly chart of GDX shows two wide bars in today’s session. The 35.00 – 35.50, area is support that may stop the down move for now.

Wide price bars usually get tested.  Today’s action (as of 1:34 p.m. EST) shows GDX is moving quickly.

Expectation now, is for GDX price action to test the wide bars.  That could take hours or days … or not at all.

If there is a test, the most likely stopping point is yesterday’s low at GDX, 36.18

In other markets, the short position in XOP (via DUG) is being maintained.  Stop has been moved to DUG, 26.63; not advice, not a recommendation.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

GDX To Go Higher

If GDX continues in counter-trend action, an equal distance wave ‘c’ is the area GDX, 37.80.

Fibonacci Day 21 from the lows in late November, puts the counter-trend top on or about, December 23rd.

With the stimulus bill essentially a sure thing and gold going nowhere, something else behind the scenes is happening.

We’ll stick with the Van Metre assessment that stimulus is deflationary; Until proven otherwise.

From ‘uneducated economist’, linked here, he proposes there’s slight of hand going on yet again.  The inference is, that somehow holding the actual physical cash note may (not advice, not a recommendation) become very important.

Following up on his comment is this: There’s a limited amount of actual physical currency in circulation as detailed here.

So worthless paper fiat currency, in an ironic twist, might become valuable for a short period of time … yet to come.

The job of this firm is not to figure out the nuances and details of the Fed.

The job is to identify probability and opportunity; then take advantage.  Interpreting price action takes decades to master … it’s a full time job in itself.

With that in mind, we’re currently short (not advice, not a recommendation) Oil & Gas via DUG.

The senior miners are on track to test the 37.50 – 38.00 area.  GDX will be monitored if/when it rises into that level. If so, it could be another low risk short opportunity.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Strategic Position

Last Monday’s update on the Oil & Gas sector ETF, showed it at a confluence of trend-line resistance.

Short positions had been established during that week (on 12/8 and 12/9) using inverse fund DUG; not advice, not a recommendation

Now, we see confirmation of the confluence.

XOP reversed right at trend intersection. 

Doing so, validates those resistance areas.

If the XOP reversal continues, next step is maintain short while determining the market’s own time frame for decline.

That means going through charts of XOP, selecting Daily, 2-Day, 3-Day charts and so on, until the best price action correlation to time, is observed.

The last major down-leg in XOP, lasting from January 8th to March 19th was best represented using a 7-Day chart.

Setting stops on the way down (DUG up) using the 7-Day, would have allowed the majority of the move to be captured.

Low-to-high on DUG from January 8th to March 19th, was 37.48 – 184.95; a gain over 393%.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GLD) Updated Forecast

After the last post on GLD, price action pushed lower for one day before starting its anticipated move upward.

That lower push has altered the end point for counter trend action.

Adjusting forecasts and possible termination points is never-ending. 

Each bit of price action gives a new data point; confirming, negating, altering the perceived scenario.

A 38.2% retrace of GLD, on a closing basis from the November 30th low, gets to around the 177.00 area

This area also corresponds with a one-to-61.8%, “a-b-c” move from that November low.

Time wise, if GLD continues higher, we’re still on track for around December 29th, having already passed the December 16th, forecasted turn.

Note:  The December 16th date was off at this point, by one day.  GLD may have reached its counter trend high on the 17th.

If there’s a trade set-up (to go short) during the last week of the year, the objective is to initiate a position in the Senior Mining Index (GDX) via inverse fund DUST; not advice, not a recommendation.

Because of the current ambiguity, no positions are planned … yet.

At this point, we’re using the deflationary model, or macro as outlined by Steven Van Metre.  Price action thus far, is confirming that thesis.

Also worthy of investigation (more later) is how banks will get out of their massive long-bond positions.  A potential scenario of Negative 6%, is discussed by J. Bravo and Jeff Booth.

We’ll see if further investigation of ‘Negative Six’ as we’ll call it, includes IRA confiscation. 

Years ago, Prechter wrote just how simple that would be.

Summarizing his words:

We’d have a complete market melt-down.  IRA withdrawal penalties made prohibitive; for your ‘safety’ only treasuries can be in the portfolio. Voila! We’re done!

What needs to be kept in the forefront of everyone’s mind accessing these updates is the overall objective remains the complete destruction of the middle class.

Even in the Bravo post liked above, at Time Stamp 19:50, he presents that destruction as the Neo Feudalism already discussed here, two-weeks ago.

Price action is the key.  If GLD continues higher and past the 50% retrace, it indicates something else is afoot. 

If that happens, the bearish look then turns bullish.

A downward reversal from this point would suggest the December 16th date was off by one day and the corrective move higher is complete.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

GDX: Nears Target @ 38

The last update on GDX, showed the projected forecast higher.

That’s exactly what happened.

Price action is just a little bit shy of the 38-area; next week may see continued move upward.

There’s also the possibility that was it.  Gold and miners may head lower from this point.

If GDX continues higher (to ~38) in counter-trend action, Fibonacci day 21 from the November 24th low, is next Wednesday, the 23rd.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

XOP, The Place To Be … Short

The dollar’s at multi-year lows. 

Oil reaches new recovery highs along with S&P, Nasdaq.

So, what does XOP, do?  Nothing.

Price action ended essentially unchanged.

The positive market bias along with extremes in opposite directions for the dollar and oil should have done something, right?

“Should” is a word never to use in any market analysis.  What ‘should’ happen rarely happens and usually, it’s the opposite.

XOP reached its high last week at the same time huge volume was moving into the inverse fund, DUG.

This week, is lower XOP action that looks about ready to roll over.

The market itself has shown where to go for the short side.  It’s the one sector that appears ready to move lower.

The position in DUG is being maintained (not advice, not a recommendation).  Because of today’s tight action, the stop remains at DUG 24.72.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Downward Pressure’

That’s part of the title from the Energy Sector report, linked here.

Those exact words were used just hours prior, in the pre-market update

Downward pressure is increasing.”

The short position in the sector is being maintained via DUG (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop is set to be moved after today, based on price action.

Using USO as the proxy, oil is pushing a little higher as of this report (12:41 p.m., EST) probably because the dollar’s probing new lows.

Even though the dollar’s at lows, action thus far is reversal. A UUP close above 24.38, may signal trouble for those that are short.

The markets continue to be stretched to extremes.  Based on data thus far, Energy Sector appears to be reversing (again) first.

Since that sector’s in a long term down-trend, XOP reaching its highs way back in June of 2014, we’ll remain focused on DUG.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Oil & Gas: Power Down

Thrust energy in Oil & Gas sector XOP, continues to erode.

The weekly chart of XOP, has the longer term view … including the confluence of trend-lines; another factor.

Now on the daily, it too is losing power.  Force Index (bottom of chart) has successive lower highs and on Monday, a lower low as well. 

Downward pressure is increasing.

The EIA report is released at 10:30 a.m. EST. We’ll see if there’s another inventory build.

The firm is currently short this market via DUG (not advice not a recommendation). Hard stop: DUG, 24.72

There’s some level of protection (against volatility) with DUG reaching an apparent low last week and XOP making its high.

Moving on to Gold:  GLD, GDX, DUST

Pre-market shows gold flat and the miners (GDX) trading slightly higher; still on track to the target in this update.

If and when targets are reached, we’ll assess whether or not a low risk (short) position is available via DUST.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.