One recent example; the bond move from late 2018, to early 2020.
During the low from October 2018 to November that year, were reports of professionals opening huge long positions.
At the time and as the weeks went by, it appeared that nothing was happening.
The delay would have caused the typical i-phone addicted ‘tweeter’ to lose interest many times over.
When it finally took off, bonds staged a huge directional move that lasted over a year.
Such moves are rare and require the ability to wait. Wait to get in and wait for the move; minimize transactions.
Each market transaction is an opportunity for error. Minimize the transactions and by definition, the errors are minimized as well.
That brings us to oil and more specifically, XOP and DUG.
The nonsense being promulgated by the financial press is that oil is moving higher on ‘hopes’ for an economic recovery.
Maybe injecting the world-wide population with potentially DNA altering technology (not even tested on animals first) for an ailment that does not exist will miraculously launch some kind of pent up consumer demand.
No matter. Oil and its attendants keep moving higher with the dollar moving lower.
Even with anecdotal evidence from an Oklahoma oil field worker (commenting on a Van Metre update) that was later confirmed by the EIA report did not cause oil to move lower … yet.
That is, until today.
The dollar attempted to continue its downtrend yesterday. Oil spiked as did XOP to the upside and DUG to the downside.
This morning is a different story. Dollar proxy, UUP is trading (pre-market) right at its highs of the last session in an apparent reversal.
Oil along with XOP is down, with DUG up.
Looking at XOP, we see it’s hitting a long-established trend line.
With the dollar, bond, and overall market extremes, no recovery in sight and more probable, another (and complete) collapse; this may be the spot (not advice, not a recommendation) to position for medium to long term on the short side.
That’s exactly what the firm has done. Looks like our position was a day too early as we sat through yesterday’ spike lower in DUG.
Volume remained heavy for that DUG session. Weekly volume is looking to be the largest (big-money moving in) since at least 2015.