Drinking The ‘Gold’ Kool-Aid

Because You Can ‘Eat’ Gold, Right?

A military invasion of Ukraine, nuclear power plant (supposedly) bombed, set on fire, power outages and potential food rationing, yet gold’s still below all-time highs?

Not only that as we’ll see below, the actual price has traced out what’s so far, a counter-trend (a-b-c) move; that is, the main trend is down … not up.

I like gold as much as the next guy but we’re seeing again and again, that’s not the crux of the immediate (world-wide) plan on a go forward basis.

Dollar & Gold: Game Of ‘Chicken’

Like a game of chicken, both the dollar and gold rallying strongly together; waiting to see who’s going to reverse first.

What do you think?

With as much control as certain entities have over both the dollar and gold … who’s likely to turn lower first?

If it’s gold, then at this juncture (below), it’s in a good position for reversal.

Weekly Gold (GLD) Close

The yellow vertical lines above, are of equal length.

GLD could push slightly higher and still maintain the ‘corrective’ a-b-c, structure.

As labeled, price action fits the ‘rule of alternation‘. The structure of the ‘a’ wave is brief and sharp. The structure of the ‘c’ wave is overlapping and longer duration.

The Danger Point:

Gold (GLD) is there now.

Continued upward pressure would change the ‘reversal’ assessment, to potential breakout … much higher prices ahead.

However, as J.B., points out in this latest video (time stamp 9:25) saying, he’s never seen so much traffic on the roads … as if gasoline’s at 99-cents.

One answer could be, this is the herd:

Completely unprepared and running around to find another herd as equally unprepared.

Panic buying of precious metals because everybody else is doing it, could be the reason behind gold’s current juncture.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Breakout, Will It Hold ?

Pushing Past Resistance

Measured Moves

Overlapping Price Action

Gold (GLD) has pushed past prior resistance and is now hovering at the 177.00 – 177.50 level.

International tensions are the usual excuse for the metal’s move but has it really done anything out of its recent norm?

This is a good time to see what the gold market is saying about itself.

Gold (GLD) Daily Chart

We’re going to use a somewhat compressed version of GLD. The reason for that will become apparent.

Starting with the un-marked daily chart below:

First is the obvious Wyckoff up-thrust (potential reversal) condition.

Price action has pushed past resistance and is now hovering at the 177.50, area … as if unsure what to do next.

GLD can come back and test on its way higher; it can come back, test and fail into a downside reversal.

The next chart is where it gets depressing for the bulls.

Price action in GLD, shows the current rally’s distance, is no different than it’s been for at least the past year.

We’ve highlighted the most recent move in blue and then moved that same line back to prior moves of nearly the exact same distance (magenta lines).

So, gold’s not doing anything out of the norm (so far) that it hasn’t done already.

Note how the entire twelve months shows price action as choppy and over-lapping.

This type of deep retracement action is characteristic of a countertrend move … that is, gold moving higher in choppy action is actually counter to its main trend … down.

Summary

With the dollar moving higher and the continued possibility of gold/dollar inverse correlation, somebody’s likely to reverse … soon.

The dollar’s been in a year-plus long upside reversal. The weight’s on the gold bulls to prove the dollar/gold inverse correlation is disconnecting.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Four Generations’

The Average Life Of A Fiat Currency

What if the ‘imminent collapse’ of the dollar is overblown by about 50 – years?

According to this just out, on private gold-filled currency, the article states average life of a fiat currency, is four generations. It goes on to say there are exceptions like the British Pound, continuing on even after hundreds of years.

The Black Swan

In Taleb’s book ‘The Black Swan’, he says it’s an event that nobody expects. It has long lasting repercussions and permanent change.

However, what most if not nearly everybody ignores or leaves out, is his alternate definition. That is:

A Black Swan can also be a future event that’s widely accepted as fact, that does not happen !!!

Is that where we are with the U.S. Dollar?

Even though the dollar has not collapsed and in fact, has rallied as we’ll see below, the ‘collapse’ talk continues unabated.

It’s easy to talk about dollar collapse.

It’s what gets the clicks. No matter that an actual collapse may be years if not decades away.

As of this post, how many ‘monopoly money’ YouTube videos can be found? Seems like it’s the same number or more than, ‘gold to skyrocket higher’.

Well, so far, gold has not skyrocketed higher.

On top of that, this site’s even provided an exclusive correlation that gold’s moving inversely to corn.

See ‘Insight Note at the end of this post.

Ever since the ‘Derecho‘, it’s never been the same.

Back to the dollar.

No doubt, the dollar was whacked over the past trading week. Let’s take a look at what the UUP, price action is saying about itself.

Dollar, UUP, Weekly Chart

The unmarked chart shows the dollar oscillating, testing support for six-months at the beginning of 2021.

Then, in mid-June ’21, UUP pivoted decisively higher (gold, GLD, pushed lower) and never came back to those levels.

Of course, this past week The Usual Suspects were out talking about the dollar and ‘monopoly money’.

Since the ‘gold skyrocketing higher’ forecast failed spectacularly, along with it being the investor’s fault, we then had the ‘clueless‘ and now, it’s ‘monopoly money’.

The chart below shows last week’s bloodbath has served to bring UUP, down to an established trend-line.

It’s important to note, with all that (down) volume, the most since early 2020, UUP was not able (thus far) to break through the trend (blue line).

That leaves the dollar at or near, the danger point.

Continued, sustained selling, risks breaking the uptrend.

If the opposite takes place and UUP starts to rally, last week may have been an inflection point (to the upside).

Gold (GLD) and the dollar appear to still be inversely correlated.

Summary:

Ever since removal of the link to gold in 1971, the dollar has the potential to collapse at any moment.

However, in this case, we at least have some historical precedent that on average, fiat currencies tend to last four generations before becoming worthless.

Wyckoff sates in his writings over and again, ‘somebody always knows something’.

If there’s a collapse afoot, he tells us to look at what the market is saying about itself (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Insight Note:

It’s been a strange coincidence over the past year or so, ideas presented on this site make their way to certain YouTube sites either in the titles, or within their content.

The timing of this phenomenon, that within a day or two, ‘post it first here, see it on YouTube there’, has occurred more times than one would consider as just ‘coincidence’.

Admittedly, the insights (making their way to certain YouTubers) have not been exclusive … that is, until now.

Recognition of the Gold/Corn inverse correlation, first posted here, is unique to this site.

As far as is known, this correlation has not been presented on any other financial site or YouTube channel or any other medium.

It may be an important data-point and map into this site’s long-time premise; it’s the corn and the grain first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

For more detail, search for Genesis 41.

When ideas from others are incorporated into the analysis presented on this site, full acknowledgement of the source is cited.

As Dr. Elder said in his book ‘Come Into My Trading Room’:

“I have zero respect for thieves”

He’s talking about the theft of his book title: “Trading For A Living”. He goes on to say, (paraphrasing)

‘Do you really want to use market analysis or input from someone that can’t think for themselves?’

Authorization:

Therefore, this footnote is authorizing the further use of the Gold/Corn inverse correlation by others in the industry if they so choose with the following caveat:

If one of the sites monitored (or some other media) uses this exclusive insight, and does so without referencing the source, it puts this author in the unenviable (but not unfamiliar) position of calling out the thief by name … not unlike what Stew Peters is doing (to the hoax/genocide perpetrators) on his broadcasts.

This market environment’s providing a fantastic public service:

It’s separating out the hucksters, the shysters and the otherwise incompetent from those who are, or who are striving to provide a service or useful insight.

The general investing public may find out soon enough, they’re on their own. Maybe unbeknownst to them, they’ve always been on their own.

End

Gold Bulls … Hit In The Head

Not Waiting Around For The Fed

It’s been an abusive relationship for the gold bulls.

Following the corporate media (always a mistake) and YouTuber’s alike (sometimes a mistake), only to find out it’s all been a lie.

Gold (GLD), looks like it’s solidifying its breakaway gap (chart below) and simultaneously confirming a potential trading channel.

In what may be related news, ZeroHedge reports some of the internet is down … again.

Note the websites having problems involve food, payroll services and of course, entertainment.

Separately, the dollar (UUP) just made a new weekly high as its rally continues. In Steven Van Metre’s Sunday Night update (time stamp: 18:01), if the dollar breaks higher above UUP 26 or 27, then “… all the wheels come off ….”

Which brings us to the gold market.

Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart

The chart reviews the recent up-thrust (reversal) that was accompanied by hysterical … bordering on unhinged insane press coverage of an imminent break higher.

Obviously, that didn’t happen.

Zoom version

In addition to the reversal and breakaway gap, there could be a trading channel as well.

That’s a good thing for the bears as it gives a more clear exit area … negation (or break) of that channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Zoom version

Of course, anything can happen. The Fed announcement is about two hours away.

However, it looks like gold and miners alike, are not waiting around … potentially beginning their decline in earnest.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Lions & Tigers & Omicron

Oh, My !!!

You have to wonder; will this nonsense be the excuse for a market collapse?

Looks like the gold miners (GDX) are not waiting around to find out.

Yesterday’s ‘gut-check’ counter trend move, was summed up with the following quote:

Such a move, is typically what happens just before a market gets underway in earnest.”

Today, the Senior Miners, GDX, reversed and closed down a solid, – 3.05%.

However, the main topic for the day is the dollar and specifically, the UUP tacking fund.

We’re just a few days shy, where a year ago, this site identified the dollar was in position (potential does not equal guarantee) for a sustained upside reversal.

Dollar, UUP

The weekly chart of UUP shows where we are.

The magenta line is resistance and the blue line is support.

The next chart highlights the current action.

If the rally is to continue and if this market action was happening at some other (non-Omicron) time, you’d expect an amount of sideways oscillation before more upside; maybe several weeks or so.

It could happen that way … or, behind Door No. 2, we might have some kind of ‘event’ launching the dollar over the resistance area.

Farther down on the list, is downside reversal.

However, at this point, gold (GLD) and the miners, are saying it’s the lower probability choice.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Inflation, Off The Chart ?

Or … Massive Supply Restriction

Use the miss-information and propaganda to your advantage.

The following items are just a partial list of recent inflation, so-called ‘news’.

$3,000 Gold Imminent

Gold & Dollar Soar, CPI Surge

Consumer Prices Soaring …

Gold & Crypto Surge

Transitory” Debate Is Over

That last one … is that like “The science is settled”?

To be fair, there is some truth in the articles. Prices are indeed rising. All types of costs are going up like food, gasoline and on.

Supply Restriction:

Here’s a strange bit of information from an unlikely source.

It turns out that copper (mining) supplies are being restricted in Minnesota. Go to time stamp 2:52, at this link and listen to the next 30-seconds.

Sure, it’s a data point of one but then again, what about all the talk of shutting down sources of oil production?

On it goes. This is supply restriction, not inflation.

It depends on what the definition of ‘inflation’ is.

Here we have one of the usual suspects parroting the now-accepted (but likely incorrect) definition of inflation. Go to time stamp 1:23.

I’m sticking with Robert Prechter Jr.’s definition of inflation and that is: Expansion of credit that causes increased spending that in turn causes demand to rise and then prices rise in turn.

Do we have expansion of credit now … or the destruction (or, soon to be) of credit? That’s called deflation.

Dollar … Still Not Dead

The dollar of course, is the wild-card.

Everybody’s expecting a collapse but darned if that’s just not happening. Actually, the opposite is taking place.

Now, all of a sudden it’s a “Contrarian Trade”. You can’t make this stuff up.

We’re coming up on the one-year anniversary of this post.

It postulated there was potential for a significant, medium-to-long term reversal in the dollar.

Getting The Picture

In a way, the dollar post and subsequent ZeroHedge one-year-later recognition of the obvious, define what this site’s all about.

As stated in the ‘About’ section, not every analysis works out. To borrow a quote from David Weis, ‘Sometimes I’m 100% wrong’.

Presented here are analysis, actions, course changes, attempting to maneuver through the largest economic and population collapse in world history.

The main focus is not to increase followership … although that is happening.

As the follower numbers increase, it’s a good sign that more are becoming aware of how manipulated and controlled is the entire narrative.

One way to separate from the effect of the falsehoods, is to become proficient at reading price action. As David Weis used to say, ‘What’s the market saying about itself?’

Which brings us to the current juncture. Gold

Gold, At A Crossroads ?

The current assessment of gold (i.e. bearish or reversal potential) is similar to the dollar from a year ago.

Different from the dollar, are the momentum (MACD, etc.) indicators … which are currently pointing higher.

In the dollar, there was a bullish weekly MACD divergence helping us along.

Not so with gold (GLD).

What we do have, and what the linked list above provides, is a look into a type of mass hysteria.

The ‘pegging the meter‘ article that came out late Friday caused only a blip higher in GLD and GDX.

If we’re at max persistent inflation already, is there any more upside left?

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Bulls & Bears, Fight It Out

… And, In This Corner …

The fight is on.

Pre-market action in miners GDX, shows a slightly higher open with inverse fund DUST below yesterday’s low.

Is the short set-up busted?

In the markets, anything can happen but we don’t know who’s really in control … yet.

Even as the dollar powers higher, gold bulls could overpower deflationary conditions pushing gold and the mining sector up as well.

To do that, they’re going to need to overcome some significant resistance obstacles.

Let’s take a look at just a couple.

Senior Miners GDX

The un-marked chart:

The mark-up:

The mark-up shows the first two layers of resistance. The blue line is the Up-thrust (potential short) condition.

The dashed black line is not so easily discernable. It was formed way back in late July and early August.

The next two charts zoom into those areas of interest; providing evidence, getting above these levels may require a sustained effort by the bulls:

Summary:

The ‘inflation’ news is already out.

Price action in today’s session may let us know if we’re in a drawn out fight lasting day to weeks; or will the bulls reach exhaustion during the session.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dollar … Before The Open

What To Watch

Spring (Reversal) Position

Not every bullish set-up works.

However with the dollar, continuing sentiment is so negative along with bonds, the dollar has potential to do the unexpected; that is, go higher.

Yesterday, UUP pushed below support (and 23.6% retrace) levels.

In so doing, price action’s now in ‘spring’ (reversal) position.

Pre-market action shows UUP, trading higher; right at support that may now be resistance … maybe.

That’s where to watch.

‘No one expects the Spanish Inquisition’ … right?

The currently held belief is dollar collapse and gold to $3,000/oz.

Dollar (UUP) Analysis:

The daily chart of UUP may be painting a different scenario:

The dollar’s already in an up-trend. It just established support at the 23.6%, Fibonacci level. There was a bounce higher and then yesterday, penetration below support.

Now, in the pre-market, UUP is currently trading at 25.14 – 25.16, which is at or even above the support level.

A dollar reversal higher at this point, being a very shallow 23.6% retrace thus far, would potentially spell big trouble for gold and the miners.

Of course, no one ‘expects’ this to happen.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Stage Is Set

Dollar’s Absent From The Show

To get the gold bulls in a hypnotic trance, thinking $3,000/oz. is just around the corner, the appropriate press releases need to be created.

As if on cue, reported by Jerimiah Babe, big names are coming out to say ‘hyperinflation’s’ a sure thing.

If it’s not happening now (as we speak) it’s bound to happen very soon.

In fact, just look at the prices (time stamp 1:30). Those price increases are proof.

Never mind the hundred or so ships off CA, or even the containers just happening to ‘slide off’ into the sea.

But wait, what about the fire?

No manufactured (um, sorry ‘supply chain’) crisis would be complete without a fire.

However, there’s a problem with all this hypnotizing the masses to hyperinflation.

That problem is … the dollar’s not playing along.

Dollar, UUP Analysis:

In fact, the dollar is showing significant strength.

It’s right at Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace (very shallow) and appears ready to move higher.

The weekly chart of UUP, is below and includes the Fibonacci levels.

The next chart expands the last few weeks to show contact with the 23.6%, line and what looks like a nascent move up:

If UUP manages to make a new weekly high above last week’s 25.24, level, we have confirmation it’s attempting to continue the reversal and up-trend.

That reversal started way back at the beginning of this year.

This is what was said back then when the dollar looked poised for imminent collapse.

If gold and the dollar are still inversely correlated, the dollar appears ready for an upside breakout; obviously, a breakout higher would then put down pressure on gold.

Gold (GLD) Reversal:

Five weeks ago, the potential for a significant gold (GLD) reversal was discussed at this link.

That idea was updated last Friday at this link.

Then, over the weekend we’ve discovered one other analyst coming up with their own version.

At this juncture, GLD continues to ratchet higher to the 171 – 175 target area.

That move’s happening along with the requisite press generated hysteria … helping lead the bulls to a potential last stand.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Dollar Ruse

What if it’s all a lie?

It seems that its been going on forever we’ve heard phrases like: ‘dollar destruction’, ‘gold’s going to $10,000,/oz’., ‘rampant inflation’, ‘hyperinflation’ and on.

What if (speculated in yesterday’s post), it’s all a lie?

It takes a very flexible mind (technically termed, “neural plasticity”) to be able to wrap itself around and understand the diabolical agenda being played out before us.

The good news is, Wyckoff analysis cuts through all the lies.

Now past a century old, this technique has stood the test of time.

Which brings us to the dollar.

Dollar Destruction: Just Another Lie

Reminder: Way back in late December of 2020, was the first bullish update on the dollar.

The next chart shows UUP, may be in a trend and just about to contact overhead resistance.

We’ll investigate further how UUP behaves if and when it gets into the resistance area.

One thing about the dollar that’s obvious from the chart, it’s not going down.

At this juncture, there’s no dollar destruction.

The dollar and gold are still inversely correlated.

That means continued downward pressure on the metals and upward pressure on the dollar.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.