Category Archives: The Speck

Biotech’s Bearish Condition

October 4, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, BBIO, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, XBI, XBI-26-17 Leave a comment

Technical First

Depending on price action, the next several updates on XBI, will discuss the technical condition.

Then, we’ll get into behind-the-scenes or ‘fundamentals’.

With that said, we’ll start with the big picture, long timeframe; Fibonacci 8-Day

Biotech XBI, 8-Day

Price action has made it all the way back to 2021 manic highs, and stalled.

A potential double top.

Not present back in 2021, was the bearish (divergent) momentum condition highlighted by MACD histogram.

So, we have a potential double top, a terminating wedge and bearish MACD.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

S&P … Almost ‘There’

October 3, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, AZO, Biotech, BKNG, DUOL, HD, KMX, LOW, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, XBI, XBI-26-17 Leave a comment

‘There’, is a new All-Time High

Two weeks ago, was this update showing the (net) upward progress of the S&P was slowing (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, two days later was this, presenting how the index might make it to another high.

Now, the SPY chart is mimicking the longer timeframe by having successive shorter thrusts (magenta arrows).

At this point it’s a toss-up but does it really matter?

Meaning, if the downside is being worked (shorted), large numbers of tickers are already in essentially free-fall: AZO, BKNG, DUOL, HD, KMX, LOW; way below their all-time highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: All have been covered at some point, on this site.

One sector that’s not cracked (yet) but seems to be building up immense pressure, is biotech.

Barring any unforeseen event, XBI is covered next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (may) Bounce

September 24, 2026 By in Biotech, The Speck, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, XBI Leave a comment

And Then?

Fibonacci ‘Day 21’, was a swift wide bar down move.

Wide bars tend to get tested, and we see that happening today and possibly tomorrow (not advice, not a recommendation).

When looking at the left side of the chart (compared to right), volatility has increased, indicating instability.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Spotlight

August 24, 2026 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, LABD, LABD-26-10, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, The Speck, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Potential Set-Up

Over the weekend, Greg Hunter released his latest interview with Ed Dowd, link here.

ZeroHedge subsequently picked up that feed, link here.

As is typical with ZeroHedge, the comments are a veritable gold-mine. In the like above, they don’t disappoint.

With XBI, we have our repeating pattern, link here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Downside Reversal?

August 16, 2026 By in Biotech, IBB, IBB-26-02, Karen Kingston, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Alignment of Forces

The last two updates, here and here, presented the case, forces are lining up; probability’s increasing for a downside reversal.

This update will complete the session (so far) on that potential.

Let’s not forget, behind-the-scenes (for years) stories like this and this continue to bubble to the surface.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

Last week’s trading range was significantly more narrow (with volume higher) than the week prior.

The chart shows IBB finished at or near the top of the wedge boundary and in Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ position.

The ‘more’ promised at the end of yesterday’s update; Friday’s daily volume contracted on the test.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts, TC2000

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … at the Pivot

April 3, 2026 By in Carl Vernon, Food Supply, GDX, GDXJ, Genesis 41, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Holiday Turns, The Speck, Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Retrace to Reversal?

This past Wednesday, Senior Gold Miners GDX, retraced to 50%.

Thursday, price action tested that level and closed lower.

On the chart below, we’re going to present price action facts; leaving out ‘hyperinflation’, YouTube grifting, ‘dollar destruction’, ‘it’s all ending tomorrow’, click-bait.

Before getting to the chart, let’s add, on this site, it’s always been about the food supply first, then gold and silver, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

The video at left, is five years old.

Since then, there’s been a massive learning curve concerning livestock.

All but one of those hens is gone now, she being retired, having produced 850 – 900 eggs.

Others have been brought in to continue the supply.

Now, on to the click-bait 🙂

Senior Miners GDX, Daily

GDX, posted an up-thrust, March 2nd, then collapsed a whopping -32.8%; read that, as ‘coincidental’ 33%.

It’s now retraced to 50%, and also in a potential channel.

Volume for yesterday contracted on the test, but it was also a pre-holiday trading day.

So, let’s just note that and not put undue weight on the fact, commitment to the upside was weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … The Big One?

September 10, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, HOOD, IBB, Karen Kingston, LABD, LABD-25-10, Nasdaq, ORCL, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, XBI 3 Comments

Next Leg Lower

Unfortunately, the (mad scientist) graphic at left, is not too far removed from what’s really going on in biotech.

While the S&P, Nasdaq Qs, Gold Miners, Semiconductors, Financials, The HOOD, ORCL, and others, continue to make all-time highs, conspicuously absent is biotech, XBI and IBB.

Now, it appears that quietly, in the background, XBI is reversing to the downside.

Biotech XBI, Daily Close

The up-thrust is there, but is a weak penetration of resistance.

Even so, on the ‘test’, volume contracted by -49.24%, when compared to volume on the upside penetration.

Until proven otherwise, this set-up appears to (currently) be the best short opportunity.

With that said, all other short positions have been closed to focus on biotech.

Leveraged inverse fund LABD is being used at this juncture: Trade LABD-25-10, with stop at the session low (not advice, not a reocmmendiaton).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

UnitedHealth … Dead Cat Bounce?

May 16, 2025 By in Health Care, Positions, Speck-Effect, The Speck, XLV, XLV-25-03, ZeroHedge

How Far, How Long?

Two major hits to UnitedHealth (UNH), in the past four days, here and here.

Let’s throw in this one as well, and make it an even three, link here, website link here. Is that why the healthcare costs are going up unexpectedly?

The Wall Street Journal, UnitedHealth, and ZeroHedge, may have presented conditions for an interim low (not advice, not a recommendation).

The press is usually last and typically presents (these days, anyway) nothing new.

The price action itself, told us something was wrong.

United Health UNH, Daily

Massive, historic volume for UNH, may indicate a temporary bottom and retrace to test Fibonacci levels.

Separately, the XLV short XLV-25-03 was closed with 6.93% profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Curve Fitting’ Biotech … Part 1

April 17, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-08, Positions, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, ZeroHedge

Fibonacci, First

We’re letting the market decide what support/resistance, trendlines, and Fibonacci levels are significant.

We’ll even make an attempt to pick the timeframe(s) that best describes current action.

There’s a lot going on in a market sense, as well as ‘behind the scenes’ with revelations like this, and this, and this.

With that said, we’re looking at the 3-Day chart and Fibonacci levels.

Biotech XBI, 3-Day

The 3-Day is being used; it best shows current trending action (planned for next update).

The XBI, has near perfect (Fibonacci) symmetry.

Price action has made its way back to the 23.6%, level, and is hesitating.

Watching the action in real time, XBI gives the sense it does not know quite what to do … is it in a pause, gathering steam to move higher, or was the massive squeeze, on Wednesday, the 9th, all there was?

Positioning

As stated in the earlier update, XBI action on the 15th, put it at The Danger Point®; the location where risk was least for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s been slow going since then (ratcheting lower) but the one thing XBI, is not doing … is moving significantly higher.

More trade discussion, stop levels, link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Curtains For Biotech?

November 27, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Holiday Turns, LABD, SPBIO, The Daily Sceptic, The List, The Speck, XBI, XBI-24-01 Tags: , , 1 Comment

Today, Is ‘Day 13’

Strange things happen in the markets just before, during, or just after a holiday week.

This time is no different.

With all that’s gone on in the past few weeks, one gets a sense ‘the jig is up’.

One example of the curtain being pulled back on a well-established grift, is this unrelated, but related post, link here.

So, it could be with biotech.

The past two weeks look like a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

It’s been a Fibonacci 13-Days since the reversal on 11/11.

The sector has accelerated to the downside on record volume and now, is testing that break.

The ‘Axis Line’, is also the location of the 61.8%, retrace for the current down-move and test.

Although there’s been no new daily low to ‘confirm’ the test is complete, (upside) risk may be at a low.

Positioning

For reasons to be covered in a later update, this sector’s being shorted directly as opposed to using leveraged inverse LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade is labeled: XBI-24-01

Stop level for the short is (or will be) the session high, currently at XBI 99.79 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279