Real Estate Trend Test

Real estate (IYR) broke its nine-month trend; now testing the underside.

The break was on exceptionally heavy volume from January 4th through the 7th, and naturally lends itself to be tested. That’s where we are now.

Adding to the reversal premise, narrow thrust action preceding it.

When thrust distance narrows, it’s time to expect a trend change.

Up-side appears limited as IYR is contacting its trend while at the same time, approaching significant resistance in the 85 – 86 area.

Unless IYR penetrates that resistance, it’s still subdividing lower, indicating reversal in progress.

We’re still positioned short (via DRV, not advice, not a recommendation) with a bit more draw-down than desired.

The first hour of trading is likely to give a signal to stay in or step aside and wait.

Separately, in other markets, looks like GDX is going to test or start to test, underside (bear flag) resistance today.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

GDX, Higher Into Resistance

It’s pre-market and miners GDX, to open higher into resistance.

Doing so will cause exit of position established December 23rd.

There’s nothing wrong with getting stopped out and then re-entering if conditions still warrant a trade.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dollar Reversal; Ready

The downward thrusts in the dollar have run their course. 

The weekly chart of UUP, shows successive narrowing of distance traveled to the downside.

The bears may have reached exhaustion at the same time MACD shows a bullish divergence.

Couple that with extreme shorting from the speculators; the trap is set, ready to close.

From a technical perspective, note last week’s price action was inside and at the top of the price range from the week prior. 

Looking at the week before that, we see price action was inside but at the bottom of the range of the week prior.

These are subtle clues; there’s a change in character.

As mentioned in previous updates, it’s all happening during holiday weeks when everyone (almost everyone) is distracted.

No matter what happens on the political side, it’s likely to be chaos.  February, is setting up to be very different from now.

We’re using Livermore’s strategic approach to the markets.  That is, figure out what’s going to happen in a big way … then get in position.

Built into that approach is recognition there will be market outages, trading halts, communication interruptions and natural disasters.

The one thing that may separate this site from others, these (potential) events are taken into account.

Seismic activity is picking up in a big way right along with volcanic eruptions.  A major eruption that will block the sun and kill-off global harvests or planting, may be in the works

The “Christmas Bomb” cut communication lines … which by the way is the very first objective during any battle; cut the enemy’s communications.

Matter of fact; that could be the ‘reason’. A test to see how badly communications were disrupted; how quickly they recovered.

Continuing on with potential disruptive events; There were broker outages on November 9th, when the market opened sharply higher. 

If it happens on the way up, it will happen on the way down.

Cyber attack has already been stated as the next gala event the elite have planned. 

There’s not one market analysis site known to this firm addressing those potentials or any others. 

In that sense, The Danger Point, is unique.

Obviously, there are no guarantees.  Anything can happen.  If one wants to day-trade, go ahead but we’re not interested.

When or if all this (or a variant of it) happens simultaneously, the general pubic is going to be stunned.

It’s possible they will see their investment accounts wiped out in a matter of weeks.

The positions remain unchanged and listed below.  The look is different as it’s taken from the firm’s own trade spreadsheet. Absolutely not advice and not a recommendation.

Note the initial stop followed by the current stop.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Miners (GDX) Wave 3, Down

Senior Miner’s action, is counter-trend into resistance at ~ 36.20.

It was also, as the day prior, inside the bar from Tuesday, the 22nd.

Markets test wide, high volume areas.  It’s what they do and it’s happening now with GDX.

The other thing happening, is a possible completion of the ‘a-b-c’ counter trend action before heading lower in Wave 3.

Wave terminology is taken from “Elliott Wave” theory. 

From empirical observation, about the only time Elliott Wave is of any use, is when markets are highly emotional.

Emotional markets generate clear waves and we may be seeing that now with GDX.

As shown on the daily chart, Wave 3 projects to GDX ~ 17.35, which is a near -52% drop from current levels.

A significant upward push past the 36.20 resistance area would indicate a longer duration move to a 50% retrace.

With current GDX weakness, bonds reversing and dollar; with the ‘dumb money’ all-in, the most in history, probabilities favor downside action.

From a human interest standpoint, it’s unfortunate that so many are so ignorant about so many things.

However, the information is there to be had.  We have Steven Van Metre, Sajad, J. Bravo, this site, and many others with good analysis.

Of course, one has to pull themselves away from the propaganda and actually do some work and think … which seems to be a very foreign concept for the masses, the “retail investor.”

Soft-times are over. Hard-times ahead.

Those who have poured their heart out in attempts to wake up their relatives and friends, collectively, are tired of the process.

So, this site presses on, providing decades of experience having tens-of-thousands of hours of screen time, at no charge.

It’s not unreasonable to think, providing market truth may become illegal (or too expensive) at some point very soon.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Danger Point Short, GDX (DUST)

As expected, this morning’s GDX action is testing yesterday’s wide price bars (shown on hourly chart).

The daily chart of inverse fund DUST is below:

The last report was posted a few hours before close. Afterward, GDX pushed slightly lower towards the bottom range of support.

That push lower in turn, lowered the retrace targets accordingly.

This morning’s upward GDX spike was a gift (as of 10:51 a.m EST) and a signal to go short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s important to note that all of this action is taking place during Christmas week; no one is looking.

The firm went short GDX at DUST:  20.09, early in the session.  Hard stop for DUST @ 19.69; not advice, not a recommendation.

Price action pushed slightly lower (to DUST 19.91, so far), before reversing.

This is the danger point. If the hyper-inflationists are right, it won’t take much of a move in GDX, to find out.

If we are in a deflation scenario, expectations are for today’s test levels to hold and for GDX to continue lower (DUST higher).

Separately, XOP is testing and filling the gap left from Monday’s open. 

If XOP reverses from here, the DUG stop could be moved up to today’s low (thus far) at DUG:  27.75.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GLD) Updated Forecast

After the last post on GLD, price action pushed lower for one day before starting its anticipated move upward.

That lower push has altered the end point for counter trend action.

Adjusting forecasts and possible termination points is never-ending. 

Each bit of price action gives a new data point; confirming, negating, altering the perceived scenario.

A 38.2% retrace of GLD, on a closing basis from the November 30th low, gets to around the 177.00 area

This area also corresponds with a one-to-61.8%, “a-b-c” move from that November low.

Time wise, if GLD continues higher, we’re still on track for around December 29th, having already passed the December 16th, forecasted turn.

Note:  The December 16th date was off at this point, by one day.  GLD may have reached its counter trend high on the 17th.

If there’s a trade set-up (to go short) during the last week of the year, the objective is to initiate a position in the Senior Mining Index (GDX) via inverse fund DUST; not advice, not a recommendation.

Because of the current ambiguity, no positions are planned … yet.

At this point, we’re using the deflationary model, or macro as outlined by Steven Van Metre.  Price action thus far, is confirming that thesis.

Also worthy of investigation (more later) is how banks will get out of their massive long-bond positions.  A potential scenario of Negative 6%, is discussed by J. Bravo and Jeff Booth.

We’ll see if further investigation of ‘Negative Six’ as we’ll call it, includes IRA confiscation. 

Years ago, Prechter wrote just how simple that would be.

Summarizing his words:

We’d have a complete market melt-down.  IRA withdrawal penalties made prohibitive; for your ‘safety’ only treasuries can be in the portfolio. Voila! We’re done!

What needs to be kept in the forefront of everyone’s mind accessing these updates is the overall objective remains the complete destruction of the middle class.

Even in the Bravo post liked above, at Time Stamp 19:50, he presents that destruction as the Neo Feudalism already discussed here, two-weeks ago.

Price action is the key.  If GLD continues higher and past the 50% retrace, it indicates something else is afoot. 

If that happens, the bearish look then turns bullish.

A downward reversal from this point would suggest the December 16th date was off by one day and the corrective move higher is complete.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Oil & Gas: Power Down

Thrust energy in Oil & Gas sector XOP, continues to erode.

The weekly chart of XOP, has the longer term view … including the confluence of trend-lines; another factor.

Now on the daily, it too is losing power.  Force Index (bottom of chart) has successive lower highs and on Monday, a lower low as well. 

Downward pressure is increasing.

The EIA report is released at 10:30 a.m. EST. We’ll see if there’s another inventory build.

The firm is currently short this market via DUG (not advice not a recommendation). Hard stop: DUG, 24.72

There’s some level of protection (against volatility) with DUG reaching an apparent low last week and XOP making its high.

Moving on to Gold:  GLD, GDX, DUST

Pre-market shows gold flat and the miners (GDX) trading slightly higher; still on track to the target in this update.

If and when targets are reached, we’ll assess whether or not a low risk (short) position is available via DUST.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Early Session Update

It did not take long to be proven wrong.  DUST positions (in both accounts) have been exited.

Stated before, a 23.6% retrace is a rare event.  Looks like that’s holding true as price action for GDX now points to the 38.2% area. 

That corresponds to GDX trading to around ~ 38 … a long way to go higher.

Biotech, shown below is just 0.69-pts shy of target with price action (as of 10:34 a.m. EST) coming back to test the early session lows.

It’s traders discretion (not advice, not a recommendation) to determine if today is the day IBB finally reverses and confirms the bearish weekly MACD divergence.

 At this point, daily action has quickly retraced from the high of 149.31

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Before The Open

At this time (9:07 a.m. EST) gold (GLD) is slightly higher, with lower action in miners, GDX and inverse fund DUST trading higher.

Probabilities for lower action in gold and miners assessed over the weekend in this report, appears to be correct.

Gold posted a new daily low but as the pre-market continues, price action is oscillating towards unchanged in both GLD and GDX. 

The main point with the early session, gold has not made a new daily high in the overnight.

Whether or not we’re in a trading channel as shown in the DUST chart below, is unknown. 

Price action itself will have to decide on the trend validity.

Market stop in DUST remains at 20.81 (not advice, not a recommendation) and will be moved higher to break-even as soon as possible. 

The dollar is up slightly along with bonds.  From Steven Van Metre’s report on Sunday, both remain at short-level extremes. 

He also notes gold and the dollar are moving lower in tandem. 

Something’s not right and one of the markets will likely respond and confirm the other.

Obviously, we’re ready and positioned for a dollar reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dow Forecast: 31,300

The Dow can either reverse right here or breakout higher from its wedge.

Since the trend is already up, a breakout to the upside is more likely.  Such a move brings in a forecast to around 31,300.

The daily chart below has the last part of the wedge expanded and posted at the bottom of the chart.

Important to note is the location of the Gold (GLD) bull trap. 

Recall, the firm went heavily short (via JDST) on that Friday and had to wait over the weekend to find out if the analysis was correct.

This excerpt (emphasis added) is from the November 7th, update.  It was a Saturday; we’re already short and waiting.

“No doubt, there are a lot of well respected traders, analysts, YouTuber’s that are on the bullish side of the market.  Here are just some examples, herehere, and here.

So, at this juncture, this firm is taking the opposite side of the trade with its re-established position in JDST.”

The following Monday in the early morning hours, gold prices collapsed.  The bulls were trapped.

As the market opened with gold down hard, the Dow and S&P both spiked up in what’s now a terminal wedge.

‘Terminal’, because this type of price action typically comes at the end of a sustained move … up or down.

At this juncture, the firm is positioned short gold (via DUST) with a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stops (two trading accounts short) are not mental, out of the market but are actual open GTC stop orders. 

That way if there’s an internet upset or power grid problem, the in-the-market stops will provide some amount of protection.

All of the above may be an excellent analysis of current conditions. 

However, behind the scenes, the macro or the real agenda, is deadly serious.

The ‘plan’ all along is to destroy (and subjugate) the middle class.  That’s been in the works for decades. Neo Feudalism.

ShadowStats reports here, real unemployment spiked to 35% early in the year and has come down to just over 25% now.

That level is still above 1930s, depression-era numbers and we’re just at the first wave of middle class destruction.

Throw in more economic turmoil and a stock market crash.  Then we have ‘fait accompli’.  Only a tiny remnant could be left unscathed.  

Note the picture at the top:  The haves and have-nots.

From The Money GPS: ‘The chasm in-between the haves and the have-nots, grows every single day’

Self employment is the key.  It’s not a guarantee but it does offer flexibility and most importantly it may offer some extra time.

The above statements may seem harsh (possibly outlandish) to those not yet awake.

To help in that area, two links are provided here and here.  See for yourself whether or not we’re at a critical juncture.

Based on yesterday’s analysis, the expectation is for gold and the miners (GDX) to continue lower.

If they do and the markets (Dow, S&P) continue higher, it’s just one more indication the time for reversal is near.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.