‘Unbelievable’ Numbers

Good News Is Bad News. Bad News Is Good News

For all of us serfs in the banana republic proletariat, it’s near if not impossible, to keep up with the lies.

The latest ‘employment‘ report is just one example.

This video from Jerimiah Babe, posted a few days ago has a different story. Check out the intro and then farther on at time stamp: 9:00.

For a second opinion, we can go to Dan, at i-Allegedly.

On his latest post, fast-forward to time stamp 7:00, where he walks through an outdoor restaurant area that’s completely vacant.

The ’employment’ report is vapor. Judging from the comments (at ZeroHedge) most everyone seems to be aware of the fakery.

Naturally, with all of this uncertainty and rampant inflation, the logical place to go would be the gold market.

Junior Miners, GDXJ

As this post is being created (mid-session), the Junior Miners are at the danger point. Price action’s at a location where it’s decision time.

So far, it’s an ‘inside day’. We don’t have a new daily high or low from the previous session.

The Fib retrace of 23.6%, discussed previously is holding for now. That weights action to the downside.

Posting a new daily high would begin to erode the set-up; potentially indicating GDXJ, is going to attempt a retrace to the Fib 38%, level.

If that higher retrace becomes a more favorable probability, the JDST-22-01, trade will likely be closed out (not advice not a recommendation).

The chart below shows the inside action thus far.

The table below has the current positioning JDST-22-01, via inverse fund JDST (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, the sell finger is on the trigger. Description of color coding and table layout is in this post.

Summary:

Trade decisions posted on this site are defined by the price action itself (not advice, not a recommendation). Wyckoff analysis does not concern itself with what’s obviously fake.

Wyckoff focuses strictly on what the market is saying about itself.

At this juncture, price action’s saying that both bulls and bears, are at the danger point.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Junior Miners, Stall-Out

First To Reverse

For the evening/overnight session, both gold and the S&P futures have opened lower.

The S&P is down 50-pts, nearly 1.10% (at about 8:15 p.m. Eastern) and already penetrating the last session’s low.

The number of technical factors concerning gold, the miners and especially the Junior Miners GDXJ, is significant.

We’ll cover just a few in this update.

Junior Miners, GDXJ: Daily

The un-marked daily chart shows GDXJ oscillating but in a general downward trend:

The next chart shows price action posted a reversal bar right at Fibonacci 23.6%, for the entire move; from the breakout highs in mid-November ’21, to the lows on January 28th, this year.

A ‘Fib’ retrace of 23.6%, is rare and if it holds, indicates significant weakness.

The next two charts present a case for why this shallow retrace may indeed hold and thus, indicate the start of the next leg lower.

On a print basis, it’s been a Fibonacci 55 (+1) days from the GDXJ print high on November 12th, 2021, to the high posted today (2/2/22).

The next chart shows that November 12th, 2021 was also the closing high of the breakout set-up.

The Important Part:

Yesterday, was the closing high of GDXJ (so far) and that makes it a perfect Fibonacci 55-Days, from peak-to-peak.

The last update on the miners showed significant down-pressure at support levels, unlike previous visits to the area.

Looks like we’ve had the rally that was forecast; that rally may now be fading.

“It’s reasonable to expect an attempt to rally in the coming week … but with this much down force, a successful rally is not the high-probability outcome.”

Gold Could Hold

Already discussed, is the idea, the actual price of gold may hold steady or even go higher and yet the mining sector collapses.

As Dan from i-Allegedly posts in this report, Italian wine makers are having a hard time getting corks for their bottles. That’s right, corks !!!

Does anyone really think a massive mining outfit is going to be able to source all they need to continue operations without interruption?

Let’s not even get started with the ‘sustainability’ corporate failure already baked into the cake 🙂

‘Stackers’ … We’ve Got You Covered

That’s right, if the last report was not enough, we now have this: Fertilizer plant on fire … imagine that.

Right in time for spring planting.

But wait, there’s more; look at the fire chief’s comments. How many “33s” can you count?

For we wrestle not

“For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.”

Sorry for those who think it’s all a ‘myth‘. I’m with Good Patriot on this one (time stamp 17:09); that we’re in a battle surpassing all that’s come, since 33 AD.

Gold & Silver

Hard assets: Good to have for sure (ammunition, seeds and egg-laying hens may be better) … but if we’re really in a similar event to Genesis 41, that means the corn and grain come first, then gold and silver.

Summary:

This post started with the S&P down about -0.80% and it’s now down -1.10%, posting a new daily low.

Gold is down slightly, holding steady but that’s already been discussed above.

Remaining short the sector via JDST-22-01 (not advice not a recommendation).

Position size on JDST-22-01, has been increased. More on that in the next report.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Junior Miners, Trading Clues

Clues For Entry, Clues For Exit

The last time weekly down-thrust energy (Force-Index) was this deep, GDXJ price action ratcheted lower for 16-weeks before a significant reversal.

That reversal took place at support where GDXJ, is now. However, back then (week of October 1st), contact with support was on weakening Force-Index; this time, it’s increasing.

It’s reasonable to expect an attempt to rally in the coming week … but with this much down force, a successful rally is not the high-probability outcome.

Summary:

One possible clue for exit of short position, JDST-22-01, is to look for continued downside action but with divergent (lessening) thrust energy; not advice, not a recommendation.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

It’s The Poo … Turning Into Gold

Wait, What ? … We Really Do Need Cows ?

Unprecedented times, yields unprecedented events.

It looks like cow dung (i.e., fertilizer) is literally turning into gold.

From the October 12th, 2021, update:

“What happens when the public realizes all-at-once, it’s the food supply that’s not ever (in quantity) coming back?”

Of course, in our upside-down world, if dung is turning into gold, well then gold must be turning into, um, something akin to dung; and so, it is.

For those who have been monitoring this site and others like ice age farmer, this news is nothing new.

The assessment that gold (GLD) was in a reversal (up-thrust) test, published hours before the Fed announcement, appears to be correct.

From the mining sector, the Junior Miners (GDXJ) have been hit the hardest being down about – 10.7%, for the week (early session).

Junior Miners, GDXJ:

We’re going to use the weekly close chart of GDXJ, as presented in the January 24th, update; more specifically, this statement:

“If GDXJ really has pivoted more aggressively to the downside, price action will ‘get itself into the channel’ by accelerating sharply lower.”

So, let’s take a look.

GDXJ, Then:

GDXJ Now (early session):

It’s still a long way to go before the close. However, action seems to be accelerating lower into the new more aggressive down-channel.

More detail in the zoom chart below.

Positioning

As a courtesy, although not obligated in any way, the following is from the company’s trade spreadsheet (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘share size’ has been changed to indicate percentage of the position.

Frist, we had DUST-21-01, closed out (details discussed here) and then JDST-22-01, opened. We’ll call that initial open as 100%.

Then, additions were made and one reduction before adding again. Those changes are shown as percentages of the original size.

Example: If the original entry on 1/19, was 10,000 shares of JDST, then on 1/20, that amount was increased by 348, shares and so on.

The table below provides the dates and entry/exit prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary:

There may still be opportunity to increase position size.

However, it’s obvious at this point, the market’s in decline and volatility likely to increase all the more.

It’s literally been four months or longer, to plan this trade. As of this post, the combined position is up a nice +31%

The next order of business is to monitor action and locate potential exit targets and stop levels.

Meanwhile, the cow dung becomes ever more valuable. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Fighting The Last War

Because, Last Time Will Work This Time

Gold fund GLD, saw record inflows for the past year.

So, that’s the place to be, right?

In a rare (media) event, the answer may be included in the above link.

The analyst in the article is quoted as being “surprised” the actual metal, gold, has not moved appreciably higher as a result of massive ETF inflows.

Since before 1980 when gold reached an all time high (back then) of $850/oz., its’ been ‘inflation, inflation, inflation’.

That Was Then:

It’s been forty-plus years (some would argue more) of non-stop inflation.

At some point, the music stops; we seem to be very close.

Everybody stampeding into gold and related markets (i,e., the miners) appears to be fighting the last war: Inflation.

Where We Are Now:

In Steven Van Metre’s latest update, he presents just how precarious and fragile is, the current market environment.

It’s a short video, just under 13-minutes; it’s worth the time.

The internet’s been the great equalizer and so everyone has access to the same information.

After watching his video (time stamp 6:07), it raises the question as to why anyone, or any financial manager, would want to be long in the equity market (not advice, not a recommendation).

To Be, Or Not To Be, ‘Certified’

Let’s just throw in that ‘certified’ management actually underperforms non-certified peers. At least in the case of the CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

In the article above, it even states that ‘experience’ is a deciding factor. Imagine that. 🙂

One has to be smart to pass the certification tests. No doubt. However, ‘smart’ does not equal ‘savvy’.

Taking all of this into account, it’s reasonable to think we’re possibly just one ‘fat-finger’ away …

Gold Finished Testing ?

We’re a few hours from the Fed announcement but the market looks like it’s already made a decision.

The daily chart of gold (GLD) shows all that’s happened since the potential for up-thrust breakout was first presented.

The zoom chart shows price action right at the support/trendline of the terminating wedge.

More importantly, we see that action is below the established resistance line; possibility indicating the test is complete.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners: Now, It’s Obvious

It Was Never A Bull Market

The bottom’s falling out of the equity markets and the miners are going right along with them.

For long-time users of this site, this lack of a sustainable bull market in the mining indices was identified long ago.

Fifteen months ago, we had the following post. Let’s review and give it an update:

‘What’s wrong with this picture?’

The Charts:

First off, we’ll re-post the weekly close chart of Junior Miners, GDXJ as it was then (October 25th, 2020):

The following quotes were also part of that report:

“One way to look at it is, the junior sector does not believe gold (and silver) prices can be sustained at current levels.”

“Or, if they are sustained, there must be something else at work that would prevent them form obtaining a substantial profit.”

Now we know, nearly a year and a half later, that “something else at work”, is what we call The Speck and the Speck-Effect.

Not only that, energy (and money) that’s being diverted to solve non-problems (covered in the last post) may be having an effect as well.

Let’s not forget supply chain problems with no end in sight.

If there ever was a case for Wyckoff analysis, this is it.

Reading price action, making calculated (intuitive) decisions will keep one away from what by now, has become useless prattle from the mainstream sources.

Remember ‘blue skies ahead’?. Seems like it was almost yesterday … oh, wait. 🙂

This garbage-in, garbage-out, is not exclusive to just the financial media.

As Dr. Vernon Colman points out in his video (linked here), it seems to be pervasive in all types of media world-wide.

Junior Miners GDXJ, At Present:

Here’s how the weekly close of the Junior Miners looks today (approximately, mid-session):

Downside Trading Channel(s)

We’ll stay with the weekly GDXJ but zoom in and mark it up:

GDXJ, has been in a well-established down-channel, beginning around late November of 2020.

As shown with the grey dashed-line, there’s a possibility of a new more aggressive channel.

The chart below shows the potential right-side trend line is currently being ‘straddled’ by price action; this can happen when the equity or index is unsure there’s been a change.

If GDXJ really has pivoted more aggressively to the downside, price action will ‘get itself into the channel’ by accelerating sharply lower.

Where’s It Headed?

For this update, we’re going to use the P&F projections for GDXJ. Fibonacci projections (which have a similar target) may be covered in tomorrow’s update … price action depending:

Downside projection is for a drop of approximately – 35% to -50%, from current levels (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary:

As always, anything can happen. The markets could be rescued yet one more time.

However, at this juncture we’re at least in the established down channel shown above. Price action will let us know if there’s been a decisive acceleration to the downside (grey dashed-line).

Remaining short GDXJ via JDST; labeled as JDST-22-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Volatility Event: Newmont Mining

Alignment Of The Bears

“Volatility Is Good”

Volatility cauterizes the emotions. It reveals the market extremes and shows each player’s hand; bulls and bears.

With the market just opened we’re going to look at gold’s last man standing: Newmont Mining.

‘Last man standing’ because, except for two equities far down in Senior Miner’s GDX, no one is anywhere near their mid-November highs.

The take on this: The gold market’s thinning out and ready to reverse.

A really big move

It’s easy to get lost and hypnotized with the day-to-day action. However, by pulling back, one sees the potential for a massive short (the market) opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Implosion Effects: Broker Platforms Go Inoperative

Over and again, nearly each time there’s a big down move in the markets, where the Dow may lose 1,000 points or more, brokerage platforms seize up.

It happens so often; it’s probably best to incorporate it into one’s trading approach.

That’s one of the reasons, if not the main reason to work the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont’s Short Clues

The volatility has exposed everybody’s hand on both side of the trade. That’s the good part.

We’ll touch on each technical event separately, starting with the unmarked daily chart:

First off, markets that have wide, high-volume bars, tend to come back and test that bar. We see it below:

Next, price action’s got itself into a terminating wedge; a potential bearish reversal pattern:

Then, we have today as Fibonacci Day 34, from the December 2nd, reversal low.

As this post is being created, NEM just made a new daily high; potentially culminating its wedge terminating move.

Big Fish, Little Hook

As Dr. Elder has said concerning stop placement, ‘You can’t catch a big fish with a little hook’.

So, we have GLD, GDX and GDXJ, in a November bull trap (up-thrust), with what looks like two-months of price action to come back and test.

If that assessment’s correct and it took two months just for a test, whatever happens next, may be on the order of years to resolve itself.

From a trade standpoint, it looks like today’s low in JDST, current open position, JDST-22-01, may be a good place for a stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont, Reversing

After Newmont posted a new daily high, it’s currently trading below yesterday’s close.

Deflation Pivot-Point

We have the usual hysteria in the gold market but this time, deflationary forces may be overtaking the manic gold bulls.

Case in point:

Existing home sales look like they’re rolling over. All kinds of excuses being made about lack of inventory and the imaginary ‘Speck’ with its new variant.

The one thing not imaginary about The Speck, is this report about what’s really going on.

Massive ‘depopulation’, is deflationary.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Test ?

Updating Now; Not Waiting For Tomorrow

If this is a test of the mid-November up-thrust, things may happen quickly from here on out; with that in mind, it’s important to get it all (technical data) out in the open.

The gold (GLD) chart is similar to the GDX that was discussed in the prior update.

It could be a test of the bull trap from last November.

If that’s indeed the case, and price action reverses lower from here, the downdraft could be more than significant.

Position Change

Instead of lightening-up on the DUST-21-01 position as stated, that position was modified.

The DUST-21-01 was closed out. Then, a position in JDST opened immediately; currently labeled as JDST-22-01, with nearly the same position size.

The gold market appears to be thinning out.

We want to pick the weakest part of the sector for downside potential (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Junior Miners. GDXJ, have been lagging the Seniors GDX, for some time.

Today appeared to be a good opportunity, with everything at extremes, to make the change (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … End of the Thinning ?

There are violent moves today in gold; both gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX.

One could think, maybe rightly so, the whole market, the miners, gold and silver, are kicking off a massive bull run.

On the surface, it looks that way.

Looking deeper, maybe not.

It could be a test of the November ’21, reversal.

Looking at charts of both Newmont and Senior Miners, GDX (we’ll cover gold tomorrow), the prior assessment, the market’s thinning-out applies even more.

Everything possible is being thrown into the last man standing: Newmont.

The violence of these moves is obvious.

Newmont (NEM) and GDX: Daily Charts

We’re going to put the unmarked chart of Newmont (NEM) and GDX directly below. The key takeaway is how far above NEM, is from its mid-November highs.

Then, look at GDX and note, it’s close but well below its mid-November highs.

This market (Senior Miners) continues to thin out … and it’s doing it violently.

Newmont (NEM):

Senior Miners, GDX:

Looking at the marked-up chart of GDX, it’s possible all of the action over the past two months, was to get into position to test the upthrust:

If an up-thrust “test” is the correct way to view this action, with gold (GLD) in a similar position, and if price action can’t hold these levels, the ensuing downside stands to be even more violent.

Run Fast, Or Not At All

Before the end of this session, DUST-21-01, will be reduced to be in compliance with margin requirements.

At mid-session, that reduction would be in the area of 12% of position size (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond, Bear Trap … Now ?

TLT, Penetrates Support Early

Looks like bonds (TLT) aren’t wasting any time.

This update proposed we’d get a penetration of support sometime around the upcoming Fed meeting on the 26th of this month.

However, today, TLT price action has moved lower, penetrated support and is resting just below those levels.

Long Bonds (TLT) Weekly

The Weekly chart shows price action hanging just below support levels (blue line).

TLT is at the danger point where risk of going long, is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

My firm has no interest in buying the debt of a bankrupt nation … any nation. So, we’ll stand aside on going long the TLT.

However, we can use this action as a proxy for the overall markets. That is, a strong TLT upside reversal may indicate downward acceleration in the major indices; S&P, Dow, QQQ and on.

Senior Miners, GDX

The daily chart of GDX has posted a new daily low.

This action helps to confirm that GDX remains in the downward trading channel, discussed here and is now continuing to move lower into that channel.

Positioning:

Remaining short GDX via DUST and increasing position size as the market allows (not advice, not a recommendaiton).

Trade identified as DUST-21-01.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279