Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If it’s frustrating for the bears, it’s got to be frustrating for the bulls as well.
Pulling back and looking at GDXJ action without emotion, it’s clear we’re still in the ‘test’ (as we’ll see below) that’s been the topic of discussion over the past several updates.
The weekly chart of GDXJ, shows that even with today’s (as of 3:04 p.m., EST) retrace and test, we’re still in a negative divergence on the MACD (orange arrow).
Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly
The horizontal blue line is not only an axis/resistance line, it’s also the Fibonacci 38.2% retrace of the GDXJ down move, April 13th, to May 25th.
We’re about an hour before the close and price action’s starting to erode from the highs.
If the downtrend is to continue, this may be a low-risk area for the shorts via JDST (not advice, not recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
For the current down-leg starting April 14th, the lowest risk point to go short the miners (via JDST) was at this post (not advice, not a recommendation).
Did I do that?
No, but I did the next best thing.
That was, aggressively position short at this post (not advice, not a recommendation).
An initial position was opened via JDST on May 15th with a hard stop at the session low; that position was doubled in size the next day when it was obvious, we’re in a reversal.
Too Late?
What happens now?
We’re about fifteen minutes before the regular session and GDXJ, looks to open slightly higher.
The Daily Chart of GDXJ below shows a penetration of the wedge with the market in position to test that break.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Candle
The zoom moves in closer to show the detail.
Note: The last push below the wedge trendline resulted in a reversal higher. Will that happen this time?
If we use the ‘rule of alternation’, that what happened last time is not likely to happen this time, probabilities favor a test and continuation to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
Is this an entry opportunity? Maybe.
Is it as low risk as the prior two pivot points? Probably not.
Then again, the bulls may be stunned at this point and usure what to do. Therefore, huge short positions may not (yet) be in play that don’t need to be squeezed out.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Dutch government puts the death knell on their economy … others will likely follow.
While the i-phone crowd is so easily distracted with AI and NVDA being their savior, back at the ranch, economies are being systematically destroyed.
Besides copper, one of the best indicators of robust economic activity is silver (SLV).
Since January, this site has highlighted the potential for a significant, sustained reversal in the precious metals; specifically, gold and silver.
Now, both the charts of GLD, and SLV, have weekly bearish MACD divergences (not shown); having just crossed the zero line with one more trading day to go.
Using a recent weekly bearish divergence as an example, natural gas (UNG), shows us the possibility; UNG is now down – 82%, (at the lows) in just 37-weeks.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly
If gold and silver decline relentlessly from here, the sector most likely to take the biggest hit, is/are the ‘Juniors’, GDXJ.
Once the public figures out en masse, they’ve been fooled into ‘stacking’ instead of securing their food supply, precious metals are likely to accelerate to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
You would think with all the handwringing, mental machinations, ‘debt ceiling’, we’re all going bankrupt, YouTube gold grifters et al, gold (GLD) would be in a monstrous rally.
Instead, we have what appears to be exhaustion and non-confirmation.
Gold (GCM23), is the only monetary metal (gold, palladium, platinum, silver) anywhere near its all-time highs.
Old-timers would call it a huge non-confirmation. The other metals are not on board with the ‘inflation’ narrative.
Time and again, we’re back to actually reading price action and having it tell us what’s real, not the mainstream.
So, trading ‘kabuki’ seems to be straightforward; just read the chart. Here’s one explanation from an unlikely source on why that simple task is so difficult: absolute, total, unrelenting focus.
Gold (GLD), Daily
When we look at gold (as of 12:05 p.m. EST), from a technical standpoint, it’s in Wyckoff spring position; a set-up to move higher.
The difference in this set-up as opposed to the one on November 3rd, of 2022 (not shown), price action’s ‘hugging the lows’ as David Weis used to call it.
We’re not springing higher.
The miners on the other hand (GDX, GDXJ) have already made their decision, moving decisively lower during this session (not advice, not a recommendation).
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
The chart below has two locations identified.
The first is this post identifying GDXJ, as a potential short opportunity.
The second is this post identifying the ‘test, reverse’ of the up-thrust with high probability of more downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
We can see the result.
Even though gold (GLD) had declined modestly with silver (SLV) more-so, the mining sector appears to be responding dramatically to the downside.
This ‘elevated metals, miners collapsing’ potential has been discussed previously.
Now, it appears that strategy is coming into play (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If gold does not go higher, it’s because of ‘manipulation’, right?
The typical YouTube gold grifter acts like manipulation is a new discovery.
It’s the ‘go-to’ excuse when their forecasts don’t work out.
Way back in the early 1900s, Wyckoff discovered the market has always been manipulated.
His insight was, it’s up to the speculator to figure out the objective of the manipulation and then act accordingly (not advice, not a recommendation).
Livermore knew about manipulation and even engaged in it himself. He looked at things in a slightly different way; meaning, what is, not, what should.
A very key difference.
So, let’s look at what is happening with gold (GLD), and where it may head from here.
It took gold (GLD) several weeks to labor higher on ever shortened thrusts before finally exhausting itself and rolling over into a reversal … where we are now.
Is price action hesitating before heading higher or is this a significant downside move in the making?
It probably won’t be long before we have the answer.
Junior Mining Sector GDXJ, Weekly
The gold mining indices GDX, and GDXJ, have already made their decision, reversing to the downside.
Note: Each reversal from a gold peak in the Junior Sector GDXJ below, is at significantly lower levels. This is not gold miner ‘bull market‘ behavior (not advice, not a recommendation).
It’s clear, the Junior Miners are in a bear market …
The GDXJ, is completing or has completed what is an obvious bear flag or terminating wedge.
Unless price action shows us differently, this is the current assessment; lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).
Fundamentals
From a fundamental standpoint, where’s the demand for inedible (possibly fake) metal going to come from? The consumer’s already tapped-out and borrowing money just to buy the weekly groceries.
Maybe something else is going on.
Something else that’s causing precious metals miners to anticipate another huge (economic) move lower.
Possibly completely unrelated (in a way) to the mining sector … maybe yet another ‘Speck’ event, shown at time stamp 3:40, at this link.
At the same link, time stamp 5:25, we’re back to the food supply … yet again.
“And all countries came into Egypt to Joseph for to buy corn; because that the famine was so sore in all lands.”
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If this is the ‘big one’ that everyone’s talking about, the miners have a long way to go to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
When there’s a viable, bearish (or bullish) divergence, then price action has the potential to go much farther and the move last much longer than anyone would expect.
Junior Miners GDXJ (as well as GDX), have posted a bearish MACD divergence on the weekly time frame … very significant.
That divergence is shown below:
Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Candle
Price action goes one way (i.e., up) while MACD goes the other … down.
Other posts have already covered details of the current set-up, now reversal, links here and here.
Not covered yet, is the apparent repeating trendline and potential trading channel.
That is shown on the daily close chart of GDXJ, below:
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Close
At the minimum, on the right side of the chart we have a down trendline. An upside break of this line would negate any short positions … (not advice, not a recommendation).
The compressed chart of GDXJ (below), shows the potential.
As of this post (12:57 p.m., EST) GDXJ, continues to move decisively lower. Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) have reversed to the downside.
Gold’s reversal potential has been discussed previously here, and here.
No one expects a significant reversal in gold …. no one.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
For all of us serfs in the banana republic proletariat, it’s near if not impossible, to keep up with the lies.
The latest ‘employment‘ report is just one example.
This video from Jerimiah Babe, posted a few days ago has a different story. Check out the intro and then farther on at time stamp: 9:00.
For a second opinion, we can go to Dan, at i-Allegedly.
On his latest post, fast-forward to time stamp 7:00, where he walks through an outdoor restaurant area that’s completely vacant.
The ’employment’ report is vapor. Judging from the comments (at ZeroHedge) most everyone seems to be aware of the fakery.
Naturally, with all of this uncertainty and rampant inflation, the logical place to go would be the gold market.
Junior Miners, GDXJ
As this post is being created (mid-session), the Junior Miners are at the danger point. Price action’s at a location where it’s decision time.
So far, it’s an ‘inside day’. We don’t have a new daily high or low from the previous session.
The Fib retrace of 23.6%, discussed previously is holding for now. That weights action to the downside.
Posting a new daily high would begin to erode the set-up; potentially indicating GDXJ, is going to attempt a retrace to the Fib 38%, level.
If that higher retrace becomes a more favorable probability, the JDST-22-01, trade will likely be closed out (not advice not a recommendation).
The chart below shows the inside action thus far.
The table below has the current positioning JDST-22-01, via inverse fund JDST (not advice, not a recommendation).
As always, the sell finger is on the trigger. Description of color coding and table layout is in this post.
Summary:
Trade decisions posted on this site are defined by the price action itself (not advice, not a recommendation). Wyckoff analysis does not concern itself with what’s obviously fake.
Wyckoff focuses strictly on what the market is saying about itself.
At this juncture, price action’s saying that both bulls and bears, are at the danger point.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
For the evening/overnight session, both gold and the S&P futures have opened lower.
The S&P is down 50-pts, nearly 1.10% (at about 8:15 p.m. Eastern) and already penetrating the last session’s low.
The number of technical factors concerning gold, the miners and especially the Junior Miners GDXJ, is significant.
We’ll cover just a few in this update.
Junior Miners, GDXJ: Daily
The un-marked daily chart shows GDXJ oscillating but in a general downward trend:
The next chart shows price action posted a reversal bar right at Fibonacci 23.6%, for the entire move; from the breakout highs in mid-November ’21, to the lows on January 28th, this year.
A ‘Fib’ retrace of 23.6%, is rare and if it holds, indicates significant weakness.
The next two charts present a case for why this shallow retrace may indeed hold and thus, indicate the start of the next leg lower.
On a print basis, it’s been a Fibonacci 55 (+1) days from the GDXJ print high on November 12th, 2021, to the high posted today (2/2/22).
The next chart shows that November 12th, 2021 was also the closing high of the breakout set-up.
The Important Part:
Yesterday, was the closing high of GDXJ (so far) and that makes it a perfect Fibonacci 55-Days, from peak-to-peak.
The last update on the miners showed significant down-pressure at support levels, unlike previous visits to the area.
Looks like we’ve had the rally that was forecast; that rally may now be fading.
“It’s reasonable to expect an attempt to rally in the coming week … but with this much down force, a successful rally is not the high-probability outcome.”
Gold Could Hold
Already discussed, is the idea, the actual price of gold may hold steady or even go higher and yet the mining sector collapses.
As Dan from i-Allegedly posts in this report, Italian wine makers are having a hard time getting corks for their bottles. That’s right, corks !!!
Does anyone really think a massive mining outfit is going to be able to source all they need to continue operations without interruption?
Let’s not even get started with the ‘sustainability’ corporate failure already baked into the cake 🙂
“For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.”
Sorry for those who think it’s all a ‘myth‘. I’m with Good Patriot on this one (time stamp 17:09); that we’re in a battle surpassing all that’s come, since 33 AD.
Gold & Silver
Hard assets: Good to have for sure (ammunition, seeds and egg-laying hens may be better) … but if we’re really in a similar event to Genesis 41, that means the corn and grain come first, then gold and silver.
Summary:
This post started with the S&P down about -0.80% and it’s now down -1.10%, posting a new daily low.
Gold is down slightly, holding steady but that’s already been discussed above.
Remaining short the sector via JDST-22-01 (not advice not a recommendation).
Position size on JDST-22-01, has been increased. More on that in the next report.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The last time weekly down-thrust energy (Force-Index) was this deep, GDXJ price action ratcheted lower for 16-weeks before a significant reversal.
That reversal took place at support where GDXJ, is now. However, back then (week of October 1st), contact with support was on weakening Force-Index; this time, it’s increasing.
It’s reasonable to expect an attempt to rally in the coming week … but with this much down force, a successful rally is not the high-probability outcome.
Summary:
One possible clue for exit of short position, JDST-22-01, is to look for continued downside action but with divergent (lessening) thrust energy; not advice, not a recommendation.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 