Was That The Top?

“If the market (S&P, Dow, NASDAQ) opens lower tomorrow, Friday and continues decisively lower, we might add Tuesday, November 24th, 2020, as another empirical data-point for Holiday Turns.”

The quote above was from last Thursday’s update.

Well, it looks like the market waited one additional day to make its turn.  For the Dow 30, last Tuesday the 24th, was indeed a high.

We’ll see how far this one goes.  It’s a high but whether or not it’s THE high is not known.

Given the market conditions being reported on this site, long positions look tenuous indeed (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ever helpful, knowledgeable financial media says ‘it’s the best month since 1987’.  No elaboration on that one is necessary.

The takeaway is, understanding that market pivots tend to occur during a holiday week … when no one is looking.

In other markets, gold (GLD) continues lower and is attempting to take the miners (GDX) down as well; currently oscillating near unchanged.

Biotech pushes into its breakout but at this juncture (11:53 a.m. EST), it looks weak and may not have energy to get to a new all time high.

It should be obvious the manipulators are hard at it … attempting to get the sector (IBB) to move high enough for gains on the long side, then turn around and establish low risk short positions.

Wyckoff noted that under such conditions (exit longs, enter shorts), daily volume will be two-to-three times greater than typical.

Chart of DIA is below … showing reversal since last Tuedsay, the 24th.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold Bulls in Denial

Now that everyone’s in shock over gold (and miners) going lower, they’re telling us ‘the bull market’s still intact’.

If you completely missed the bull trap, why should your analysis be viable now?

Anything can happen that’s for sure.  The futures markets open in a few hours and gold could go into a rally.  It could … but will it?

When a trap like GLD is over three-months in the making, those in charge, the bears, will attempt to use it to its fullest extent. 

Those on the wrong end, are the ones providing downside fuel.

The bears set the trap and give it a push.  Now the bulls are selling their positions driving the market lower.

Effective traps typically go farther and last longer than anyone expects.  The most likely target for the current move is shown as the blue oval.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

When the Levee Breaks

‘When the levee breaks, I have no place to stay.’

Or, to quote Steven Van Metre (time stamp 30:03):

“… and they know in a computer traded market which this is, that’s massively overvalued, it’s going to send stocks down faster than ever before.”

That sentiment dovetails directly into the firm’s stance:  Work only the short side of the market.  It can break at any time.

We’ve already seen major brokerages can’t handle huge volume surges during mass client access. 

The latest episode was Schwab’s system lockup.

… and that’s when the market is going up!!!  What’s going to happen when it goes down with the same (or more) velocity?

As GDX continues to deflate with very little upside bias thus far, the short position was increased (not advice) on Wednesday.

The chart shows the current trend-line and the short entries (via DUST). 

If we are in a real deflationary event, if gold and GDX are leading the way lower, the expectation is for a steady sustained and relentless decline with few if any upward spikes.

Such downward action has been seen before; especially in the oil markets.

The stop for DUST has not been moved (not advice) and is currently at DUST, 21.19.

A new daily low for GDX will allow the stop in DUST to be moved higher.

If the market (S&P, Dow, NASDAQ) opens lower tomorrow, Friday and continues decisively lower, we might add Tuesday, November 24th, 2020, as another empirical data-point for Holiday Turns.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Bitcoin to Replace Gold?

That’s according to this episode from the Keiser Report.

Before we address that ‘report’, first this:

The video at this link (until it gets removed) is only 3:37 minutes long … but it explains everything.

It’s a well orchestrated script. 

How else would every single major corporation have exactly the same advertisements? 

Exactly the same; Literally, word-for-word.

So, bitcoin to replace gold? … it’s not even necessary to waste time with an answer. The deeper question is, what’s really going on with gold?

Gold is part of the script as well:

Gold is subdividing lower at this juncture. 

One target level from this update puts it around the $1,300-area.  By that time and if it gets there, the objective is met. 

There will be few-to-none of the original bulls left to buy in … their money gone; used to pay bills, buy food or worse … bitcoin … right in time for a major solar flare to knock out the entire electronic grid.

Listen to the “Report” and how the big names are bandied about.  They have the big bucks … you don’t.  So, listen to them.  They are the elite.

No, they are part of (and always have been) the coordinated effort to subjugate the masses.

It’s just now, there are enough ‘asleep’ with huge numbers of the population flu-shotted, vaccinated, fluoridated, medicated into complete stupidity; or just too afraid of the truth. 

It’s not necessary to hide the message. What are you going to do … “elect” someone to change it? Got that one covered.

If you have read this far … yours is a different story.  Welcome to reality.

One part of that reality is the markets are a wealth-transfer process which is now in overdrive. 

Looking at the daily newsfeeds, it’s obvious (or should be) to the old-timers, the lies and miss-direction have gone to a whole new level.

Wyckoff’s admonition about listening to the news is more true now than a century ago.

Ignoring those news-feeds and focusing on price action, the initial analysis of gold and the miners from late October, was spot on. 

The beginning trade in this series was a short position (via JDST) entered on Friday November 6th, when gold was at intermediate highs.

That short was held over a tense weekend.

Going against hundreds of thousands if not millions (on the other side of the trade) is difficult indeed.

Robert Prechter in his writings has detailed how hard it is to override the limbic (herd) system of the brain and operate separate from the crowd; nearly impossible.

By late Sunday – early Monday, gold futures (GCZ20) had collapsed.

The trade was closed out on November 9th, with a solid 13.22% gain.

Recognizing that JDST had more downward bias error than DUST, the next short position was initiated on the senior index (not advice, not a recommendation).

The GDX chart below (expandable version here) shows it’s following Fibonacci projections lower. 

It would be nice from a profit stand-point for GDX to reach all the way to the 16-area (blue oval).

Even Steven Van Metre has indicated several times in his reports, this area is his target as well.

After all, who is going to listen to some guy whose wife made his “Like” and “Subscribe” flash-cards from cardboard and sticks?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Meanwhile, Back at The Ranch

It’s full speed ahead with ‘the speck’… well it’s actually ‘Warp Speed’ ahead, isn’t it?

Just what is the definition of ‘warp speed’? This link defines it as traveling faster than the speed of light. 

Therefore, if we’re going faster than light, that light can not expose the darkness, the evil. It’s by design.

19 And this is the condemnation, that light is come into the world, and men loved darkness rather than light, because their deeds were evil.

20 For every one that doeth evil hateth the light, neither cometh to the light, lest his deeds should be reproved.

21 But he that doeth truth cometh to the light, that his deeds may be made manifest, that they are wrought in God.

John 13: 19  – 21

By accessing this site, you’re either ‘awake’, about to become awake, or will run away from this site and the battlefield itself.

We’re not on YouTube, not on BitChute or any other video platform … we’re way down on the censorship food chain.

That’s part of the plan.

Stay out of the corporate arena and below the radar.

It’s easy (and low cost) to force a half-million corporate employees to get tested (with false positive) and then subject them to receive the cure.

Tracking down every individual, doing the same, is more difficult and more importantly, much more expensive.

Remember THX-1138?  The cost of capturing THX, exceeded the budget allowed.  He escapes to freedom.

That’s a long pre-amble to get to the markets at hand … however, it does provide context. 

The markets are part of the battlefield.

How else will wealth be confiscated (as is already happening) so the masses are brought to their knees and forced into submission?

Looking at what’s going on while the Thanksgiving, mask on, mask off, and legal proceedings rage, we have the senior gold miners, GDX.

Steven Van Metre, in his Sunday update mentions the GDX at time stamp 7:40, and the dollar at time stamp 14:50.  At this point, their movements are counter cyclical.

Currently, at 11:41 a.m., EST, the senior minors, GDX, have broken lower hard … down -3.81% so far.

At this point, it’s now obvious they are heading lower … and fast.

Unfortunately and probably unwittingly, gold bulls and followers that went all-in, positioning long, were played as the useful idiots.

Sure, gold and the miners (if they aren’t nationalized) will rally.  Only, it’s likely the herd won’t be part of it.    

They could be wiped out by then … their ‘stacks’ of gold and silver used instead to pay mortgages, service margin calls and to buy (real) food.

It’s by design.

What a brutal environment.  That’s for sure.

Looking at the chart of GDX, we see the break lower. 

It has made a new daily low and thus our stop in the inverse find DUST (not advice, not a recommendation) is moved up to DUST:  20.31.

Gold and the miners are leading the way down.  We have executed Wyckoff analysis correctly by identifying the weakest market; the one most susceptible to move lower (first) in a bear market.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Make It Stop

The gold bulls are trapped and the market is eroding away. 

The weekly chart of GLD (farther down), shows this past week was the opportunity for GLD to move higher.

It didn’t happen. 

Some of the YouTube sites that are monitored, have caught on something’s very wrong with the bullish picture. 

However, there are literally millions positioned (or at least thinking) on one side of the trade. Without neural plasticity to switch gears and re-position, at low risk no less, the pain is likely to be severe.

The same goes for the overall market. 

Steven Van Metre, in his Friday update stated, ‘retail investors are all-in at the highest level in market history’.

Yet he says, the market did not move significantly higher.  That’s the clue.  It’s likely we’ve seen the highs.

There’s more middle class destruction on the way with shutdowns and restrictions; all under the guise of the speck.   

If the speck is so bad, where are the bodies?

Take a trip to your local graveyard … you’ll probably find the caretaker asleep on his back-hoe … waiting like the Maytag repairman.

There are no bodies except for the odd duffer that died while on a ventilator … ah yes, the ventilator, that topic is for another time. 

Those flexible enough, the entrepreneurs, picked up on this scenario long ago and have responded accordingly. 

The only way out is self-employment; separate from the crowd.  Even that’s no guarantee but at least it provides some time and flexibility.

Getting back to the markets, we see the S&P and Dow at their highs (possibly topping-out) while gold and the miners have already rolled over. 

Senior miner index GDX, has now posted an outside down (key reversal) on the monthly chart. 

We have one more trading week to go (plus one day), but it’s likely the key reversal will stick.

As always, even with the lower action just passed, upward movement next week (if any) could happen but it’s likely to be halting and laborious.

If the overall markets head lower, the uneducated public once again and by their own actions, have set the stage for their financial destruction. 

Only this time, it’s over.  There will be no recovery.

As the downturn sets in and jobs continue to disappear, the calls to ‘make it stop’ will become ever so shrill. 

The masses will be desperate enough to line up for government assistance and allow (even beg for) the catch … be injected first; No matter who is in office.

There’s a reason, professional, seasoned hard as nails (even profane) market traders are quoting Biblical scripture.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

GDX: At Down-Trend

There’s a lot going on in the senior mining index, GDX.  Price action penetrated support yesterday and set up a spring (reversal) condition.

Today’s action is gap-up open with a test of the support level happening now (10:44 a.m. EST).

The chart shows the down-trend line and contact points. 

The magenta, dashed arrow is the location of the initial short position (not advice, not a recommendation) via the inverse fund DUST.

As price action was rising into the morning session (with DUST declining), the short position was increased by about 14%.  That area is shown as the orange dashed arrow.

We are looking for the spring action to fail and downtrend to resume.

If GDX closes lower for the day, we’ll move the DUST stop (not advice, not a recommendation) up to its session low; currently at 20.44.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

One Way Pockets

One hundred-three years ago, a brief 64-page text was published where a broker at a trading firm analyzed client accounts.

The year was 1915, and the market was at all-time highs.  The purpose of the analysis was to see how the active clients fared after a record breaking run-up.

“Like a great majority of our customers, these traders had been bullish on the munition [World War I] and standard industrial stocks during the great speculative boom of that year, and now, with the stocks in which they had been operating up from 15 to 100 points each, their profits were relatively small and their commitments [i.e. margin] larger than at any preceding stage of the movement.”

Basically, these customers were the herd.  Profits, if any, were slim and they are all-in at the high … and on margin.

Just five years later, that same market had lost nearly two-thirds of its value and is down over -61%.  The book is called One Way Pockets

Fast forward over one hundred years. We have The Money GPS with this report; Fund inflows at the highest in 20-years and nobody going short.  Well, almost nobody.

A huge amount of the population is out of work and most likely relying on the markets to make up the difference.  Remember back in the day, when it was bad if there were 350,000 jobless claims?

The middle class is in the midst of destruction and will (when it’s all over) basically be eliminated.  It will usher in, ‘neo feudalism’. 

It’s not a new idea as Prechter predicted as much nearly twenty years ago. 

This backdrop or macro if you will, has produced the sentiment driving the analysis on this site as well as more in-depth technical data on the host firm’s website.

Taking all into account, under the conditions of today, this moment, we’re short the Senior Miners (GDX) using DUST as the trading vehicle (not a recommendation, not advice).  The stop has been moved up to DUST 19.58.

Quotes used with permission.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Dazed and Confused

That’s what hyperinflation gold bulls must be feeling; dazed and confused.

Certainly, we all know from a long-term macro perspective, all fiat currencies go to zero. 

It took the Roman Empire somewhere around 300 years to debase their currency to zero.

So, it’s what happens in-between; that’s the important part.

The old trading books like Reminiscences of A Stock Operator and Studies in Tape Reading are replete with speculators being on the wrong side of the trade.

Some of them realize the error, get themselves righted and back on the direction of trend.  Others, like in one Livermore example (the cotton trade) go bankrupt.

Just to see how big the hyperinflation crowd is, we’ve added up the total number of subscribers to bullish YouTube channels listed in this update

That list for sure, is a small fraction of bullish ‘content’ available.  At a total of 674,000 subscribers, it’s already a huge number.  The actual size of all such content is most likely in the millions.

Note the word “content”, is amorphous.  It just means ‘there’s something in there’.  It does not mean that ‘something’ is of any use. 

When reading through the old trading stories, we see the great speculators operated alone. At times, they employed a support staff of ‘board boys’, writing quotes down on the chalk boards but not much else.

If you’re alone, direction changes happen instantly. Changing direction that fast for millions … not a chance.

At this time in the pre-market (9:03, a.m. EST), gold (GLD) is set to open lower with GDX indicating lower as well.

Looking at the chart of GDX, we’ve got a possible trend line. 

Such lines make things a bit easier.  If there is confirmation on the way down, we maintain the DUST trade (not advice, not a recommendation); until the trend is broken.

Current stop (not advice, not a recommendation) is set at DUST 18.92

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Get Right … Sit Tight

That was Livermore’s adage nearly a century ago.  Find conditions for a sustainable move and get in.  Then wait and wait some more.

Going on, he states that is was not the thinking that made him money … it was the ‘sitting’.

The short entry on GDX was initiated with DUST (2X Inverse, GDX) at DUST 18.86.

Initial stop (not advice, not a recommendation) was very tight at the session low, DUST 18.45. 

Price action the next session (yesterday) pulled away from entry levels and the stop was moved to 18.56.

Today’s pre-market session (8:54 a.m. EST) shows continued downside for GDX, with DUST up correspondingly. 

If there’s a higher close in DUST, we’ll move the stop again.

With the overall markets, S&P 500, Dow, NASDAQ, at or near all-time highs, the precious metals sector seems to be leading the way lower.

If the rest of the market reverses, downside action in the mining sector could be dramatic indeed.

In other markets, it appears that Peabody Energy (BTU) may have finally found its low; from top to bottom, a -98.33% decline. 

Analysis of BTU to be forthcoming before the end of the week.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.