Turn The Screws

Having been on the wrong side of major moves numerous times, I have first-hand experience on what’s likely to happen next.

If the bulls are trapped for a second time, those in control, the bears, are going to put the screws to those on the wrong side (not advice, not a recommendation).

It could be a straightforward downward thrust or a slow capital draining grind.

We won’t know how bad it’s going to be (for them) until it’s over; Keeping in mind at all times, anything can happen.

Rule Of Alternation

Yesterday’s update said the following:

“Price action permitting, we’ll discuss how this first correction may be a brief one as opposed to a drawn-out choppy affair.”

Price action in GDX, has posted a new daily low (below last Friday’s low); a potential indication we could be starting the next leg lower.

The basis of that assessment is from a technical discussion published by Robert Prechter, Jr., in the early 2000s (’02, ’03, if memory serves) as ‘the rule of alternation’.

Basically, what happened last time, won’t happen this time.

Senior Miners, GDX

The daily chart shows the eight-day up-thrust, along with current action.

The mark-up makes it clear

It was eight days above resistance battling it out between bulls and bears.

Now, we’ve had one day above resistance (level posted on, 12/7) followed by a new daily low.

Correction Complete ?

The following (DUST-21-01), is the trade sequence currently being used.

Based on the above analysis, we’re going to tentatively call ‘The first correction’ as complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade: DUST-21-01

1. The Set-Up: Complete
2. The ‘test’ or ‘gut-check’: Complete
3. The first ‘correction’: Complete
4. Continuation or Failure
   1. Trend identification
   2. Potential channel(s)
5. Exit process
   1. Scale out
   2. Full exit
6. Post trade evaluation

Looking For The Trend

Next up in the trade sequence, is identification of a trend or trends … if any.

For now, we have the potential channel shown below.

Now comes the part most traders/speculators find difficult; That is, wait.

As Livermore said in Reminiscences, (paraphrasing): ‘It wasn’t the thinking that made me money … it was the waiting’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279