Fighting The Last War

Because, Last Time Will Work This Time

Gold fund GLD, saw record inflows for the past year.

So, that’s the place to be, right?

In a rare (media) event, the answer may be included in the above link.

The analyst in the article is quoted as being “surprised” the actual metal, gold, has not moved appreciably higher as a result of massive ETF inflows.

Since before 1980 when gold reached an all time high (back then) of $850/oz., its’ been ‘inflation, inflation, inflation’.

That Was Then:

It’s been forty-plus years (some would argue more) of non-stop inflation.

At some point, the music stops; we seem to be very close.

Everybody stampeding into gold and related markets (i,e., the miners) appears to be fighting the last war: Inflation.

Where We Are Now:

In Steven Van Metre’s latest update, he presents just how precarious and fragile is, the current market environment.

It’s a short video, just under 13-minutes; it’s worth the time.

The internet’s been the great equalizer and so everyone has access to the same information.

After watching his video (time stamp 6:07), it raises the question as to why anyone, or any financial manager, would want to be long in the equity market (not advice, not a recommendation).

To Be, Or Not To Be, ‘Certified’

Let’s just throw in that ‘certified’ management actually underperforms non-certified peers. At least in the case of the CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst).

In the article above, it even states that ‘experience’ is a deciding factor. Imagine that. 🙂

One has to be smart to pass the certification tests. No doubt. However, ‘smart’ does not equal ‘savvy’.

Taking all of this into account, it’s reasonable to think we’re possibly just one ‘fat-finger’ away …

Gold Finished Testing ?

We’re a few hours from the Fed announcement but the market looks like it’s already made a decision.

The daily chart of gold (GLD) shows all that’s happened since the potential for up-thrust breakout was first presented.

The zoom chart shows price action right at the support/trendline of the terminating wedge.

More importantly, we see that action is below the established resistance line; possibility indicating the test is complete.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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