Moderna (injections) Suspended

Biotech, Bricks In The Wall

Complete Implosion.

This site’s been steadfast for over a year; biotech above all others, has the highest chance of sustained, long-term collapse.

‘Collapse’ is an overused word these days. It may have lost some meaning.

How about the word ‘exposure‘?

Biotech has the highest chance of being exposed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sweden Suspends Moderna:

There it is out in the mainstream: Indefinite suspension.

About a week ago, the fist bullet item in this list discussed Moderna; that when price action reverses to the down-side (after being a market darling), the lawsuits start.

It’s not the lawsuits themselves, but the discovery process that’s part of the trial … if it goes to trial.

One can guess with some assurance, the last thing Moderna wants is for this baby (any potential lawsuit) to go to discovery and trial.

This could be one of those times, popcorn is justified; watching it all from the sidelines.

Southwest Backs Off:

Looks like greed is more powerful than jabs.

At least we can see the priorities and keep that for future reference.

Now, all-of-a-sudden, it makes no sense to destroy executive stock options with forced collapse of the organization.

Glad we have such genius executives in charge. 🙂

Meanwhile, Back At The Ranch:

While all that’s going on, we still have the financial press talking about earnings and sales and ‘pent up demand’ like any of that is important or actually real.

The only reality at this point in time, is the price.

Biotech SPBIO, Inverse Fund LABD Analysis:

We’re going to start with the un-marked chart of SPBIO:

Next, we’re going to invert that chart; giving a better perspective of what the inverse fund LABD, is tracking:

Repeating a previous observation; price action over the last two months (from late August to now), has calmed down.

Price range has narrowed and movement looks orderly.

Our take on this; bears have assumed control and are preparing (opening positions) for a directional move.

Compared to my firm and probably anyone reading, their capital is unlimited. They’re also patient.

Depending on the level of greed, they’re keeping price action from a major breakout until positioning is complete (not advice, not a recommendation).

Wyckoff termed this phenomenon (a century ago) as the ‘composite operator’, or the ‘central mind’.

This is how markets work. There’s no getting away from it.

By making a transaction, any transaction, one has implicitly entered the ‘arena’ where the gladiators (the professionals) are ready to take all you own.

Moving in a little closer, we already have a trend.

Price action bounced off support on Friday (resistance on the inverted chart) but closed nearly unchanged.

Summary:

When you have satire like this and especially at time stamp 6:35, the pressure continues to build … almost from all sides.

My firm remains short SPBIO via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

That is, until the market itself says the bearish analysis is wrong or it’s time to exit.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Shakedown’ In Biotech

Don’t Think It’s A Racket ?

Well, here’s your proof.

It looked like biotech inverse fund LABD was going through a standard ‘test’ and then secondary ‘test’ (not as common).

Price action lulled participants to sleep; including this author.

Then , the shakedown.

The purpose is obvious; scare (nearly) everybody half-to-death and have them close out their positions.

It seemed to be working.

Early on, it looked like LABD was going to crater … with SPBIO launching higher accordingly.

Then, a funny thing happened.

LABD Block Trades:

As LABD price action was reaching its session lows, huge amounts of volume started to print on the tape.

Price action was not going down further and yet ‘block trades’ started to show up.

Strictly speaking, a block trade is anything over 10,000 shares.

However, I’m lumping in the 5,000 share trades and up, into the ‘block’.

There were plenty of those including one (buy) block for 13,000 @ 21.66; that’s equivalent to $281,580.

Stand Fast:

It’s days like today, understanding where one is in the market, is critical.

The initial work had been done long ago; that biotech (SPBIO) had printed three down quarters in a row.

The main long-term trend is down until price action says it’s not (not advice, not a recommendation).

LABD Analysis:

The un-marked daily of LABD is below:

Next, we move closer in and mark-up the 30-minute chart:

The large spike in volume is clear.

Volume in that bar’s 30-minutes was the highest since October 1st which was during a huge upward spike in LABD.

Positioning:

If LABD comes back down to the lows, it would indicate weakness and potential exit (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, the short biotech (SPBIO) via LABD, is being maintained (not advice, not a recommendation).

Last Thing:

Because LABD, price action has hit the 21.40 area three times and rebounded, … it could, … could head lower for a penetration and spring set-up.

Everybody and their dog (that’s left) has now put their stops at that level.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mount Aso Volcano Erupts

Or … ‘How’s That Stack Of Silver ?’

One result of a solar minimum (reduced sun-spot activity) is increased volcanic eruptions.

That increase has something to do with more solar radiation hitting and penetrating the earth.

Thus far, it’s not fully understood.

A contrary thought; it’s understood (able to be manipulated) but that insight’s not going to be revealed to us the proletariat.

One data point in favor of the ‘proletariat’ scenario is at this link. Right at the start in the upper left, you see clouds.

What’s strange about them? Think ‘wavelength‘.

Hiding in plain sight.

Honorable Mention:

This update would be remiss if it did not mention the latest on China’s reduced fertilizer exports.

Futures market for Urea (not making that up), moving briskly higher.

Mid Session:

Back At The Ranch, SPBIO (LABD)

Biotech SPBIO, is in the process of testing yesterday’s action.

The hourly chart of the inverse fund LABD, has price action in the process of competing a secondary test.

The take-away is unchanged.

Biotech (SPBIO) looks like it’s preparing for a directional move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action thus far (since the support penetration), is consistent with that potential.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Shifting Sand

Or … How To Spot A Change Of Character

Art & Science: Interpreting price action requires both.

Since the September 2nd, high in biotech SPBIO and low for inverse LABD, the character of the market has changed.

Price action has become tight and orderly.

Typically, when that happens, someone (some entity) is gaining control. They are preparing the market for a directional move.

That’s the science part; the observation part.

Art is ephemeral. You don’t know if it matters to the subject at hand or not.

You won’t know until it becomes obvious.

In the markets, when it’s obvious, it’s too late.

News Of Note:

Within the past few days, there have been at least two news stories of note: Here and here.

It’s not really the stories themselves but what they represent.

Go to time stamp 8:10, at this link. That’s what it’s about.

The so-called controlling entities may be in the early stages of consuming each other.

What does that have to do the the markets and specifically biotech? Those thinking they were safe and getting fake ‘protection’ could be realizing, maybe they didn’t.

Maybe it was the real thing.

Mid Session:

SPBIO (Inverse, LABD):

The market’s had a change in character.

Whether or not the above links were the reason, just part of the reason or not at all, won’t be known until long after the market opportunity has passed.

We’ll start with the un-marked daily chart of leveraged inverse fund LABD:

Tight price action identified:

Now, it gets interesting.

We’ll zoom in on part of the tight area using the hourly chart:

LABD has oscillated around support and then penetrated that support as shown.

Price action rose dramatically from there. We’ll label it as a sign of demand (Wyckoff term).

Next, we have the testing action. David Weis used to call it “The Gut Check”.

Tests can either pass or fail. That currently puts LABD at the danger point.

Positioning:

My firm’s position remains unchanged: Short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary:

As this post is being created, LABD is moving up off the test lows. So far, overall price action has been well behaved.

Thus far, there has been no major (news generating) price break.

That type of controlled movement allows large positions to be built carefully and quietly (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

In The Spotlight

Beginning Of The End ?

Or … Just The End Of The Beginning ?

Maybe, it turns out that some people don’t want to be in the spotlight after all.

Click on the link.

See if your jaw doesn’t drop with how casually the interview discusses things we (the serfs) should not know.

That interview (at least the ‘tweet’) is from February, this year. So, maybe this is old news to some.

Even so, it’s just one of the many bricks in the wall for biotech.

With that said, let’s take a look at our chief cook and bottle washer: SPBIO

SPBIO (and inverse, LABD) Analysis:

The last update said that we expected SPBIO, to decline and LABD, to rise from current levels.

That’s exactly what happened.

As usual, we’ll start with the unmarked chart:

Obviously, biotech’s not moving higher.

At Friday’s close, it’s down – 28.4%, from the all time highs posted February, this year.

Market Insight:

The ‘tweet’ in the link above, is dated February 9th, 2021.

The all time high for biotech SPBIO, was the very same day: February 9th, 2021.

Remember, there are no coincidences.

Let’s mark up the daily chart; showing that Friday was an outside-down (key reversal) day.

The right-most area of the chart has been zoomed-in.

Higher high, lower low and lower close:

The next chart is where it gets interesting.

We’ve included a Fibonacci projection; going from all time highs to lows in May and then counter-trend high on June 28th:

It’s clear the 23.6%, projection level has been an axis line.

SPBIO, price action has oscillated about this area for months.

With Thursday’s ‘a-b-c’ corrective move and Friday’s outside-down reversal, that axis oscillation may be complete.

If SPBIO is to head lower from this point (which is expected), we’ll watch to see if price action ‘respects’ the Fibonacci projections; that is, will price action head lower to 38%, then 50%, and on?

Positioning:

Friday was a good day to be short via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech, is nowhere near all time highs. The sector is essentially running neck-and-neck with GDX, to the downside.

The expectation’s for SPBIO to head lower in the coming week.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Think, ‘Inside The Box’

Late Session

Or … Who’s In Charge Of The News?

Answer:

The same people who came up with the tag line appearing simultaneously throughout every major corporation:

“We’re all in this together.”

Remember that?

I have an engineering buddy that founded his own muscle car performance company (think “steeroids®”) and he told me the following:

“Once you get out of the corporate world, you won’t be able to think straight for about six months to a year.”

I didn’t quite understand what he meant … that is, until I left the corporate world.

It was just as he said. Six months before the fog began to lift.

Steered To and Fro:

Each corporate directive or news story is out there for a reason. Someone (much higher up) had to decide on its creation and release.

Once out of the box, you can see (if you’re awake) just how much and how deep was/is the control.

What does all that have to do with the markets?

Well, let’s take a look at the latest case of (hyperinflation induced dollar collapse) herd behavior; the gold market.

Gold To Rally?

The gold lunatics are out again … having escaped the asylum yet one more time.

Of course, this upward bounce was predicted well in advance:

Of note: GDX is in ‘spring’ position. An upward attempt is to be expected.

If GDX was to break out and start a sustained bull move, this would be the spot. We’re at the danger point.

Gold and GDX, have indeed put in some kind of a rally. However, let’s see what the gold market (GLD), is saying about itself:

Gold (GLD) Analysis:

As of this post, this is how it looks.

Marking up with a tend-line gets us the following:

On a longer term perspective and if the trendline is broken, we can go back to the original idea of an up-thrust set-up:

As is typical for this site, we’ll let the bulls duke it out with the bears. We’ll wait and see if we’re at a reversal point (trend-line) or if we’re headed to up-thrust condition.

If GLD breaks the trend-line, getting back to the 170 – 171, level (up-thrust), imagine the hysteria. 🙂

Lastly, Biotech (LABD):

First: Did we exit LABD?

Answer is No (not advice, not a recommendation)

Second: Why?

The price action thrusts below support that have been reported in prior posts were indeed spring set-ups.

However, it’s obvious now, they were not THE set-up.

The chart shows LABD has met an ‘a-b-c’ measured move target.

The idealized form of an ‘a-b-c’ corrective move, is shown with the blue lines and notations:

At this juncture, wave ‘a’ net distance traveled, is equal to ‘c’ and wave ‘b’ net distance, is about 50% the length of wave ‘a’.

These measurements are typical for ‘a-b-c’.

Positioning:

My firm’s main position is still showing a good profit and we’re going to maintain short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, as with GDX being at the danger point before its rally, so too is biotech at the danger point (prior to a potential decline).

Expectations are for LABD to retrace higher from current levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech: The Thrust Is Gone

Before The Open

Biotech SPBIO And Inverse LABD:

Ready To Reverse.

We’re using the leveraged inverse fund LABD, for our analysis (SPBIO down, LABD up).

Yesterday, closed with the 4-Hour chart above.

Annotating with Force Index numbers; each early session 4-Hour bar for the past two days, has been posted on decreasing downward thrust (last two magenta down-arrows).

In addition, the first four hours of the last session penetrated support and then retraced in the next four hours (last bar).

That sets up a spring condition as shown:

Taking Forever?

If this really is the crest of a major (overall market) reversal, we need to remind ourselves, it’s a massive juggernaut.

Said many times, we (my firm) are looking and working on the big move (not advice, not a recommendation).

By definition, it’s not a popular method.

Nothing seems to be happening … until it does. Then, it’s too late to position.

Pre-Market:

With about 17-minutes to go before the open, LABD is trading unchanged.

Obviously, the first four hours of trade will be important.

The market (LABD) could continue to grind lower … or we may be at the end of the counter-trend move; ready to reverse upward for LABD and down for SPBIO.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Hidden In Plain Sight

Mid Session:

The best way to hide something, is to put it out there for all to see:

In plain sight

However, for the oligarch’s target audience, the proletariat, they can’t actually ‘see’. It’s all by design.

They’re hypnotized, programmed, demoralized; just doing and not thinking.

Which home improvement center has the tag line played over and over through their speaker system (paraphrasing) ‘doers getting things done’.

If you think about it, ‘Doers’ don’t think. They just ‘do’. A perfectly controllable, mindless herd.

Going one step further, is to have these proles so mentally damaged, they actually think, there’re thinking.

Which brings us to our chief cook and bottle washer for the day: Southwest Airlines

Southwest Cancels Flights:

The official company line is cancellations were due to weather which is obviously not true.

This report from KHOU in Houston, says the cancellations were about something else. It’s in the title but that’s not what the news story’s really about.

Go ahead and watch. Stop the video after thirty seconds and tell me (figuratively) what’s the real intent.

If you can ‘see’, it’ll be obvious.

Actually, this was an easy one.

This news story has nothing to do with cancellations and everything to do with ‘compliance.’

Present the image over and over of compliance (masks) and then it takes on a life of its own.

For example, we can see that type of compliance in this Facebook post (at left) put out in my area just yesterday.

It’s not hard to surmise (and tragically, so) there’s probably not going to be a ‘Second Year’ photo shoot.

This Is Now:

I have family members that essentially fall into two camps:

The first, plugs their ears and chant “la, la, la, it’s not happening”.

The other camp mumbles over and over (for years now) “it shouldn’t be this way”.

Neither camp has, is, or will do anything to get ready.

Icing on the cake is the typical response of, ‘Your information’s not from a reputable source’.

What, like Fox News?

You may, and probably do have similar stories.

In line with it’s not happening, or the government should fix it so it won’t be this way, we have Dan from I Allegedly.

He just posted another update. At time stamp 20:20, people are still expecting a fourth stimulus check.

That’s something else that’s not happening.

Which all brings us to what really is happening … our second topic of the day: Biotech

Biotech SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:

It’s been an up day for biotech (down for LABD) thus far but that’s not the real story.

The chart below is from earlier in the session. We’re looking at the leveraged inverse fund LABD, on the hourly basis:

Next, we have our ‘usual suspects’ mark-up showing us the potential opportunity:

From a personal standpoint, being short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) has been tiring.

Especially on days like today.

You can watch your main account fluctuate (in the red) by what used to be, in the corporate world, two to four week’s pay; all happening in a single hour.

However, even as this post is being created, we now have LABD posting the following:

Upside action off the spring looks strong. However, there could still be a downward test.

SPBIO, Last Chance?:

Intuitively, this could be it for biotech (SPBIO) to the upside.

The reason for that conclusion is:

If the spring set up holds with sustained upward action in LABD, it sets up a potential measured move condition (not shown); targeting LABD to much higher levels.

In that case, SPBIO would move lower … much lower and possibly well past any nearby major support.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Retrace

Mid Session

Putting It In Perspective

Biotech (SPBIO) is still well off the highs and in bear market (below 20%) territory.

We’re going to take the last section of the chart, highlighted below and expand it out to hourly.

Hourly detail is below:

There was a minor penetration of support yesterday, the 6th; that has resulted in a spring condition upward move.

Now, we’re at the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace of the down-move that started on September 2nd.

Spring-To-Up-Thrust ?

Looking at the hourly, it’s clear just a little farther up and we’ll penetrate minor resistance (which is also the 23.6%, retrace). Doing so, would put price action in the all too familiar and well documented ‘spring to up-thrust’ condition.

At mid-session, with SPBIO retreating (slightly) from the highs, it may not make it to up-thrust, today.

However, one still needs to be aware of the possibility.

Positioning:

As my firm is positioned short this sector (not advice, not a recommendation), being in the red for the day is never fun.

However, at this juncture, the charts themselves say there’s nothing untoward about maintaining short.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech, Trending Lower

Early Session

The Lies And Reality, Don’t Match

You would think with all the announcements about corporations (forcing) their employees to become ‘fully protected’, the biotech sector would be launching higher.

After all, that sector’s about to get a massive increase in revenue as the major players continue on with their ‘protection’ plan.

Just yesterday, late in the day was this announcement.

Looks like 1,400 non-compliant, undesirables have been dealt with.

Let’s do some math.

If that was 2% of the workforce, that means just for this employer alone, approximately 68,600 (subtracting 1,400 from 70,000) have now received a ‘bonus’ from the company.

If the scientific (real science) estimates are correct, the ‘elephant‘ will begin to kick in within six months and be fully effective (terminal) within five years.

This example is not the only one … Southwest Airlines just announced a similar push; fully ‘protected’ by the end of the year.

With all this good news, one would expect the biotech sector (SPBIO) to be launching higher in an unstoppable rally.

Um, no.

Let’s take a look at what’s really going on with the price action.

SPBIO (and 3X inverse, LABD):

We’re going to use the 3X inverse SPBIO fund LABD, for our analysis.

We’re about 30-minutes past the open and SPBIO, is heading lower with inverse LABD, moving higher:

We’re going to digress just a bit; updating on the ‘alternating’ action discussed in this update.

Price action above, is choppy and overlapping. That’s different from what we see now:

With all that being said, it’s possible LABD, has just confirmed the right side of a trend-line:

As a reminder, biotech (SPBIO) is the only major index that just finished three down quarters in a row.

If current action continues … it’s on track to make it four.

Wyckoff said it a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something. That something, is reflected in the tape (price action)’.

The lies and reality don’t match. Biotech is losing steam … possibly in anticipation of an ‘event’ of some kind.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.