Biotech Mid-Session, Update

One Last Low, For LABD

Yet another low for inverse LABD.

Is this trade set-up still viable and/or worth the pursuit?

Short answer (at this point) is yes, and yes.

We’re going to look at the tape (the chart) and let it tell us what’s happening from a Wyckoff analysis perspective.

Since we’ve just past mid-session (12:37 p.m. EST), we’ll use the 4-Hour chart.

Biotech SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD: 4-Hour

The unmarked chart above, looks like a mess.

Volatility everywhere in the past four sessions; including the Fed announcement on June 15th.

The marked-up chart below shows two distinct 4-Hour reversal bars.

Each of those bars were subsequently penetrated to the downside thus negating any entry signals.

However, it’s the next chart that draws from the secrets of Wyckoff analysis.

That is, “Shortening of the thrust”.

Discussed by David Weis in his training video, when thrusts become shorter, probabilities favor we’re nearing the end of the move.

As shown below, net downward thrusts on the chart have narrowed significantly.

Note that each downward thrust has successively less energy as shown on divergence of Force Index.

The next chart zooms-in.

Positioning

Based on the above, as much as price action gives the appearance of moving lower for LABD (higher for SPBIO), the energy to do so, appears to be spent.

Obviously, the accounts being managed have gone through a draw-down over the past trading sessions.

One account was stopped out @ 44.58 and then re-positioned at 44.01. The other account was allowed to draw down (not advice, not a recommendation).

The LABD-22-04, trade remains intact.

Summary

If the trend remains down for SPBIO, it’s highly unlikely the index will make new daily highs beyond this session.

If it does, then we can consider the trade set-up invalid.

A reasonable stop location at this point for inverse LABD, would be near or below the lows for the day (thus far), currently @ 42.37 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Solstice Reversal

Let’s Not Forget, S&P Bottom @ 666.67

The S&P bottomed out at 666.67, on March 9th of 2009.

Putting it differently; that’s 3/9/09.

When that ’09, bottom is discussed in the financial press, they quickly round it up “667”; nothing to see here.

Market Reversal

The S&P needs to print a new daily low to make it official but our chief cook and bottle washer, biotech, looks like it’s not waiting around.

Pre-market action in (inverse) LABD is already at a new daily high, corresponding to a new daily SPBIO, low.

Once again, the short position was exited during the last session and then re-entered (discussed below) towards the end of the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade LABD-22-03 is closed out; LABD-22-04, now open.

Biotech SPBIO Inverse Fund LABD

The chart shows pre-market action is at this juncture; Fifteen minutes before the open.

The hourly chart below has entry detail along with the current stop.

LABD Hourly

Positioning

With the market to open gap-higher (SPBIO, gap-lower), the first order of business is likely to be an attempt to close that gap.

If there’s going to be an attempt, look for it within the first 90-minutes of trade.

From my firm’s standpoint, the actions are obvious: We’ll be looking to increase the LABD-22-04, position and continue to have a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary

Anyone accessing this site for any length of time is most likely, fully awake.

Go ahead and look up “June 21st” on this calendar; it all makes sense.

If this reversal ‘sticks’ and is the pre-cursor to much lower levels, we know ‘the enemy’ has not changed.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279