“We have the evidence”

12:13 p.m. EST:

The link, located here is an interview with Reiner Fuellmich, a lawyer (a good one) that’s been at the center of the ‘speck’ investigation since inception.

This one interview, all nineteen-minutes, thirty one seconds, is probably the best summary of the current situation.

The link above comes with a warning:

If you’re one of those still asleep, after watching the interview, you’ll never be the same. You’ll be forever changed.

To put it biblically, “Your eyes will be opened”.

That is, if this lie can be perpetrated world-wide (as it has), then what does that say about all other media generated propaganda: the (stolen) election, the fake oval office, the fake executive orders, the fake insurrection.

The examples above are just from the past six-months!

For emphasis, we’ll throw in one more link that seems un-related but it’s not; it shows just how long events have been purposely shaped to fit a narrative.

Of course, this ‘thought shaping’ goes back even farther … if not a hundred years or more.

Market Impact:

So, what’s all this have to do with the markets and specifically biotech, IBB?

The interview’s implications for biotech are clear.

David Stockman has a post located here whose title sums it up nicely:

‘… a scam like no other’.

It’s just a matter of time before the public is either awakened or severely, permanently, damaged by following (and believing) the lie.

This time around, cemeteries are likely to be overrun … for real.

If that happens, repercussions to the biotech sector would (likely) be severe to catastrophic (down -90%, maybe?).

Even though a few within IBB are directly involved, all are likely to take a hit

Market Positioning:

In our Project Stimulus table, we’re short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation). The stop has been moved above break-even.

It’s important to not let fundamentals (above) bleed into market positioning. It’s impossible to say when or if fundamentals will take control.

What we have now is IBB looking as if those fundamentals are providing a backdrop for technical action (described below). However, technical action can change instantly.

Biotech, IBB Technical Analysis:

Typically, this morning’s action would signal a ‘short exit’ or ‘go long’; when price action immediately gaps above the prior session high.

However, we already know on a long term (quarterly, monthly, weekly) basis, IBB has reversed. That does not mean price can’t go into some type of truncated rally … it can.

What the long term momentum says, if a rally occurs, it’s likely to be short and reverse quickly.

As of this post, it looks like whatever rally there was, it was over within the hour.

Technically, we have an interesting situation. IBB may have formed an Andrews’ Pitchfork.

The first chart shows the set up and has the width of the Pitchfork at a Fibonacci 21-days (plus one).

The second chart is a compressed version for better perspective.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Pre-Market

9:13 a.m. EST: Since the ‘project’s’ positioned short biotech, that’s the focus for the morning.

The last two updates, here and here, showed biotech acting differently than other markets.

With IBB currently down nearly -15%, from its all time print high, it’s already in ‘correction’ territory; just a few percent more, it’ll be classified as ‘bear market’.

The weekly close shows another bearish set-up with what looks like a Head & Shoulders pattern. Note the second ‘bounce’ off the neckline was markedly lower than the first.

Energy to the upside is dissipating. Price action may be ready to penetrate the neckline.

As of this post, inverse fund LABD is trading unchanged to slightly higher (on about 24,000 shares).

If there’s a decisive move lower in IBB (higher LABD), we’ll change the LABD stop. With a current stop at 22.96, (not advice, not a recommendation) we’re right at break even.

Truth Begins to Surface

Stated many times on this site, with such a big (world-wide) lie, it’ll be hard to keep the truth under wraps … especially so, when scenes like this are everyday events.

Several corporations in the IBB sector, are providing the public ‘service’ shown in the above link. We’ll go into their technical condition in a separate update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech … Down, Down, Down

Momentum:

Monthly, weekly and daily MACD histogram, all down.

We’ll look at several daily charts before moving on to weekly and P&F.

Above, the Head & Shoulders pattern is clear. There’s a down-sloping neckline with a rally that looks to be rolling over.

An alternate view are two wedge patterns:

On to the weekly. A Fibonacci projection has been added showing down move potential.

Lastly, daily P&F with its own projections.

Interesting to note: Range from 104 – 127, closely matches the 100.0% – 161.8%, Fibonacci range of 108.50 – 128:

From the previous update, biotech IBB, appears to have broken from the crowd. Momentum indicators on multiple timeframes have all lined up to the downside.

Friday’s after-market activity (BigCharts), has IBB down -0.84, on a solid 1,035,712, shares.

If the aftermarket volume is correct (no misprints or errors), it’s equivalent to 25% , of the entire volume for the day’s regular session.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Print High & Close

The table lists well known index ETF’s; along with most recent highs and current (Friday) close:

All the usual suspects are there:

S&P 500, SPY, The Dow 30, DIA, Nasdaq, QQQ, and on.

What’s also listed is how far each index (ETF) is from its most recent all time high or ‘recovery’ high (in percentage terms).

Obviously, one of these is completely out of bed: Biotech, IBB

We’ll be discussing the technical condition of biotech tomorrow. For now, the updated ‘project’ chart’s included below:

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Before The Open

9:02 a.m., EST:

Decisive trend break and test. Biotech IBB’s, ready to continue downside action.

Today may be the day for downside follow-through. We’ll see.

The work has already been done showing long term IBB, has reversed to the downside. Reference posts here and here, if needed.

The hourly chart of inverse fund LABD (3X inverse, IBB) shows pre-market range along with potential trend activity.

Yesterday, IBB was shorted via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation). Project table below:

If and when IBB makes a new daily low and LABD a new daily high, the stop will be moved. If so, the GTC stop order is likely to be updated toward the end of the session.

As this post is being created, Bid/Ask spreads on LABD are fluctuating.

Last trade @ 23.31 +0.23, +1.00%. Earlier, pre-market trading was lower.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Position Change

DRV pushed through our stop early in the session; position closed (not advice, not a recommendation).

1:50 p.m. EST:

Despite all the analysis, IYR is showing continued buoyancy.

Something else is going on; possibly related to Uneducated Economist’s link provided in the last update.

Taking his cue, a functioning mortgage market is all important to the financial narrative, it’s possible this market will be more heavily manipulated than others.

At this juncture it would make sense. All indications are for reversal … yet it’s not happening in any significant way.

Time for another trade.

We’re going back to a market that in retrospect, should’ve been the focus all along; Biotech.

This site’s coming from the perspective those reading, are well aware the ‘speck’ as we call it (to avoid censorship) was a fabricated event.

Just a reminder that we’re not some ‘Johnny come lately’, here’s the link from way back in May, last year.

That post proves the situation was figured out well before the May 17th publish date (interviews, observations conducted a month prior).

What’s not fabricated however, are the repercussions from the so-called cure for the speck.

Unfortunately, those are happening now and are quite real.

Moving on to the trade.

Despite the number of transactions shown in the Project Stimulus table (below), the objective is to minimize activity. We’re looking for a mid, to long term sustainable move; gain potential, 100% to 1,000%.

Updated previously, very long term (Quarterly) IBB has reversed.

Monthly and weekly have reversed as well; both the monthly and weekly MACD indicators point down. Daily is essentially flat.

The hourly chart of LABD (3X inverse IBB) shows the entry location and subsequent price action. Stop is the session low @ 22.23 (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s worth repeating, the false narrative on the speck and consequences of speck protection may blow up in the media (and biotech) at any time.

As J.P. says, getting people to do something they know is bad for them (or lethal) is the ultimate ‘elite’ high.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Something Different, Biotech

A long term (Quarterly) view of biotech, IBB

The inverted chart puts it into perspective. Biotech has already reversed.

It would seem fitting as truth is hard to put down forever.

One can only hope the whole fake ‘speck’ narrative will be blown wide open … taking the entire sector down with it.

It may already be happening but in such slow (long term) motion that we’re not noticing it.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Technical Discussion

Yesterday’s swift move lower in IBB looks like the start of the next leg down.

Update 10:34 a.m. EST in red below:

Closer inspection however, shows biotech could pivot and move to higher levels … if only temporarily.

We’re looking at the 30-minute chart of IBB. Yesterday’s action penetrated minor support and stopped dead.

When price action behaves in that manner, it puts the index in what Wyckoff called ‘spring position’ ready to move higher.

Then we have the wide 30-minute (red) bar from the session; likely to be tested. To do that, action needs to move higher.

The target area is near a 62% retrace of the entire down move from the high on February 10th, to the low on March 5th.

Note, yesterday was a Fibonacci Day 13, from that March low.

Even though IBB’s likely to move higher, we’re leaving it alone.

If action gets to the target, we’ll be ready to short (via LABD) if there’s opportunity.

Update:

It’s not called “The Danger Point” for nothing.

Price action penetrates deep below (minor) support effectively negating the ‘spring’ scenario discussed.

We’ve now penetrated below another support level

Price action can still spring upward from here … although probabilities appear to be fading.

Either way, we’re not interested in going long at historic valuations.

Separately, our ‘project’ has maintained short real estate via DRV (not advice not a recommendation), to be covered in a later update.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Project Update

Early today, LABD was exited having hit the stop.

If there is a story for the day, it’s the long bond TLT.

Potentially a nascent reversal.

Interest rate sensitive markets, like real estate, appear positioned for reversal as well.

Inverse fund DRV above, shows penetration below support and then testing action today.

We’re at the extremes of price action. IYR and DRV do not need to go far to confirm or negate a reversal condition.

At this point (1:03 p.m. EST) our ‘project’ has no position … although DRV looks enticing and low risk (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Run The Stops

It took the entire session on Friday for price action to hit the LABD stop @ 18.96.

It’s the way it happened, that defined what happened next.

Since we don’t have access to the order book, we can only conjecture where stop orders had accumulated.

The market’s interested in transactions, not levels. Wherever there’s a preponderance of orders … that’s where it goes.

Martha Stokes, CMT, put it well when she said (paraphrasing):

‘The Market Makers don’t know you are there; they’re not interested in your tiny little stop order.

If your order does get taken out, it’s because too many small traders put their stops at the same location.

There’s an order imbalance. The market’s response is essentially automatic … take out the stops.’

While the original LABD 18.96, stop may not have been a popular location for the small (and maybe big) traders, price action throughout the day could have ‘pumped’ the stops to that location.

Case in point is the huge block trade just at the 1:00 p.m. EST, mark.

At that point, 31,500 shares went by (on the tape) at price 19.10 … which equates to over $600,000 in one transaction.

So, where are you going to put your stop for that position. Below the market, right? Maybe at 18.95 let’s say? Especially so ,when price action instantly rallies away from that entry; all the way to 19.78, intra-session.

The stop would appear to be tight but well positioned.

However, if there was a stop for that huge block and it was too close to the market (with other stops accumulating), it would act as a magnet for price action; drawing it back to that level to get the transaction (hit the stop).

Of course, it’s all conjecture and we won’t ever know for sure.

If the LABD market opens significantly higher (IBB lower) on Monday, then our assessment looks correct.

A lower or unchanged open, signals us to get out. If that happens, then IBB is likely to be heading higher.

As you may have guessed by now, the response to all this kabuki was to re-position the stopped-out order.

The table below has the summary:

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.