Monthly Archives: December 2020

Gold: Resistance & Retrace

December 3, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, DUST, GDX, GLD

Instead of reversal in the overnight, gold went higher. 

Keeping with the potential down-trend theme, we’ll pull out to the next larger time-frame; the weekly.

The 23.6% retrace level, is approximately 172.60 – 172. 70, when measured on the weekly chart.  Pre-market action in GLD (as of 8:55 a.m. EST) is at 172.40 – 172.60 range. 

So, we’re there.

This is a good example of price action coming back to test wide, high-volume areas such as posted last week.  It’s what markets do.

From a trading standpoint, the DUST position could be stopped out if price action remains at this level to the open. 

Not a problem.  Every trading action results in creating another data point for a future entry.

Moving on to Biotech (IBB): 

Using LABD (3X Inverse IBB) as the high-volume proxy, it’s oscillating in a narrow range and essentially unchanged.

Separately, David Quintieri at the Money GPS, comments here, that he’s being chided for not giving financial advice and not indicating which stocks to buy.

In addition, Steven Van Metre, in this report states the Dollar and 30-Year Bonds are shorted to unbelievable, historic extremes.

He also states that ‘when the market finally reverses, it’s going to be violent.’

The wipe-out, when it comes will likely be on several fronts. 

Food supply

Power gird

Cyber attack

“Speck”

Markets

Riots

After those events transpire, figuring out which stock to buy won’t be anywhere on the list.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold: Reversal Now?

December 2, 2020 By in BIS, DUST, GDX, GLD, IBB

If the trend is in-effect as shown, GLD could reverse tomorrow or in the overnight session.

The senior miners (GDX) stalled during today’s session.  Price action is still at the Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace level.

To help clarify the firm’s positions, the following detail is provided as a courtesy only.

Several accounts are being managed.  Currently there are two open positions in separate accounts (not advice, not a recommendation):

Managed Accounts

Detail              Position         Stop

Short GDX     DUST             20.44

Short IBB       BIS                  25.46

Everyone has their own style.  Ours adheres to tenets laid down by three market masters from the early 1900s.  Detail on those criteria can be found here.

One of the reasons for choosing Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb, is that no evidence exists these individuals were part of any full scale corruption or being the lap-dog for the globalist elite.

That statement is the complete opposite of what we have today. At this stage, the corruption and lap-doggery should be obvious to all.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Bond Test

December 2, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, Bonds, DUST, GDX, TLT 1 Comment

Bonds (TLT) were hit hard during the last session.  Are higher rates ahead?

The short answer is no … if the test shown in the TLT chart holds.

What we have is typical market action at a significant reversal. 

Putting it in perspective, the push below support (blue line) lasted a full three days before reversing higher.

Then we have twelve days of upward recovery until yesterday.  Price action was slammed -1.57%.

It might look like we’re headed back to lower bond prices and higher rates; in effect, what we really have is a test of the reversal.

You can almost feel it. A major event is near.

The equity markets at all time highs … extremes of ‘retail’ participation never seen before. 

Couple that with the largest-ever short position in the bond market (about to get squeezed). 

The dollar’s at the bottom of its trading range … gold already heading lower.

The sense is a major market reversal is very near.  It’s probably already happening but just not obvious enough … yet.

We’re not going long the bond market but rather going short other markets.

Most of the short position in DUST was exited during the last session when price action came back to the intra day highs.  The potential squeeze got a reprieve at least for the day.

It’s important to note, yesterday’s GDX move went to a near exact Fibonacci retrace of 23.6%.  The down-trend could proceed at any time.

Separately, a short was entered in the biotech sector via BIS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Pre-market activity (as of 9:02 a.m. EST) for IBB indicates a lower open with BIS correspondingly higher.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

After The Close: Biotech

December 1, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB

Attempted breakout that failed … thus far.   That was today’s action for Biotech (IBB).

The (weekly MACD) divergence set-up has been in the works for awhile.  The first time weekly MACD was discussed was this report nearly two months ago.

With the Dow reaching an apparent top last Tuesday and with other markets (S&P, NASDAQ) following suit today, there’s potential we’re at a pivot point.

Note that Biotech’s all time closing high remains IBB 145.80, reached back on July 20th, this year.

Volume for today’s session increased 43% over yesterday. However this session only pushed 0.23%, higher; opposed to a 1.23%, gain on Monday. 

Upward progress slowed significantly in the face of higher volume.  The bulls are tired.

While external world chaos rages, here, here and here, we’re focused on price action and taking advantage of low risk opportunities.

The response was to go short via BIS (not advice, not a recommendation) at BIS 25.61, with a stop set at BIS 25.46.

Note on stops and trading:

Every speculator has their style.  We’re perfectly comfortable getting stopped out and re-entering several times on what is considered a viable set-up.

The current position may be stopped out at the next session.  Depending on the price action at the time, the bearish divergence on the weekly may still be in effect and allow for a re-entry into the trade.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Short: Initial Entry

December 1, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB

At this juncture, 1:12 p.m. EST, IBB has retreated from the all time highs.

A close below resistance at this session would be significant

Just 1.99-points shy of the target: Initial short via BIS @ 25.60 (not advice, not a recommendation).

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech (IBB) Nears Target

December 1, 2020 By in Biotech, BIS, DUST, GDX

Pre-market activity shows IBB near 147.00, just 3-points away from the 150, target and right at the high set on July 20th, this year.

If IBB reaches that target (this week), it would automatically set-up a bearish divergence on the weekly chart.

That divergence would be on both the MACD lines and the histogram … a rare occurrence.

It’s not an automatic short entry (via BIS).  It’s a low risk area that’s important to watch.

In other markets, gold (GLD) has rebounded, up about 2% in the pre-market. However, price action remains in a congestion area of both resistance and support between 165 – 170.

The miners GDX are up as well and also hitting the underside of resistance. 

In addition for GDX, the 35.80 – 35.90 area is a 23.6% Fibonacci retrace for the entire down move that started on August 5th this year.

From a trading perspective, we’re short the sector (not a recommendation, not advice) and have a stop in DUST that is likely to be hit at the open.

If this action in GLD and GDX is just short-covering, we’ll know fairly soon. Under such conditions, price action begins to erode quickly as the shorts cover and the bulls are too weak to keep prices higher.

The short (DUST) position may be re-established (not advice, not a recommendation) during this session or following ones.

The bearish assessment of the mining index (and gold) has not changed. Gold and the miners may be leading the way down as reported here. 

The market will do everything in its power to make sure it throws off and frustrates as many bulls/bears as possible.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

It’s a Squeeze

December 1, 2020 By in DUST, GDX, GOLD

As of 10:26 a.m. EST, price action in the miners, GDX is exhibiting the characteristics of a short squeeze.

A gap-up open that’s quickly eroding.

Trading was in a narrow range for thirty minutes between 35.50 – 35.70, before breaking lower.

As long as the high of 35.83, for GDX is not challenged, the squeeze may be over … that fast.

If so, and GDX closes lower than yesterday, it would indicate a high probability for a swift, decisive move to much lower levels..

The firm’s own position in DUST had a stop at 21.19.  In a discretionary move, based on price action itself, the short position (not advice, not a recommendation) is being maintained

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.