Possible Blow-Off Top

11:41 a.m., EST

Biotech IBB: Straight down in early session

Support at 153 – 154

If IBB’s going to test by moving up to underside of resistance, that support (153 – 154) would be a good place to start.

If we just had a massive short squeeze, support may not hold and IBB just continues on down.

The other biotech index, SPBIO, is performing in a similar fashion. Inverse fund LABD is up sharply as of this post.

Several updates on biotech, IBB and SPBIO have mentioned ‘collapse’.

A future update will provide some perspective on the potential downside for the sector

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Demolition

You have to wonder; once the ruling oligarchs are finished with the first (‘speck’) round, moving on to the next fabricated crisis, if biotech’s not going to be thrown under the bus.

After all, its served its purpose.

According to comments posted beneath this article, about 33%, of the U.S. population have (apparently, voluntarily) injected themselves.

According to this link, it’s about 24%, of the population.

Either way, it’s a lot … in the tens of millions.

It’s a crazy business model; systematically destroy your customer base.

Said many times in these updates, attempting to match fundamentals to technicals is usually not successful.

Sector Analysis:

Referring back to Ed Seykota, in his ‘Market Wizards‘ interview, he said using fundamentals as a basis for positioning, rarely if ever, worked.

Still, it’s undeniable something very wrong is going on in the sector.

Our market table has been updated and we’ve included the S&P Biotech Sector, SPBIO:

All markets are within fractions of a percent of all time highs except for semis, mid-caps and biotech.

The S&P biotech is down a whopping, 25%.

It’s already well in bear market territory.

Positioning:

Since we’re working the short side (not advice, not a recommendation), the focus is on biotech and specifically LABD.

The fund attempts to track the 3X inverse of SPBIO.

With that kind of leverage, LABD has significant downside bias. Positioning (from experience) is best suited when the move is sustainable and persistent.

Looking at the chart of LABD, we could be there. At this time, the fund is trending higher at a stiff +820%, on an annualized basis.

Project Stimulus:

Our Project account is positioned as shown. Since the account’s not large enough to enable leverage as determined by the broker, we just have to wait it out till it gets there (currently set at $2,000).

Summary:

Stated in The Rich And The Super Rich (if memory serves), not since Marie Antionette have the ruling oligarchs allowed themselves to be out in the open.

Seems like her demise cured them of having to get (direct) attention.

That would mean, people in the public eye at this point, are just useful idiots. And when their usefulness has run its course … ???

From watching them, it’s obvious they’re delusional … thinking they can tame evil (even harming children) and escape wrath.

“And for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie:”

The entire ‘transhumanism’ agenda is an attempt to cheat death … to avoid judgement … to outsmart the almighty.

Good luck with that.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Amgen: Fakeout-Breakout?

11:56 a.m. EST:

Amgen’s sotorasib news could be its all time high.

Immediately following that announcement, AMGN went into a 20% decline (‘sign of supply’).

In Wyckoff terms, we can look at the action from late January to now as a massive ‘up-thrust’ (false breakout).

That up-thrust is now being tested … with another breakout attempt.

If that’s the case and the test fails with price action retreating from here, then AMGN’s set-up for a significant downward reversal.

Significant in that we’re not (ever) coming back to these levels.

That statement might seem hyperbolic and it very well could be.

However, when one looks at reports like this, insiders are bailing out; leaving “retail” holding the bag as usual.

Fundamentals:

Although not directly related to AMGN, we have yet another horror show in the biotech arena.

The wheels are falling off the ‘speck’ false narrative; tragically so.

The following is taken from the comment section of the video post:

From the guy who filmed :

“Less than 5 minutes from getting God knows what injected inside them the two people to my left starting having seizures. First the gentlemen in the red car was watching in shock as the driver next to him was having a seizure. Little did he know he would have one right after him. I called the medics to help him. They have a procedure where after you get the shot you have to wait in the car for 15 min and if something goes wrong to honk your horn and someone will show up. Well these folks to my left just passed out into seizures with no warning.

You would think it’s just a matter of time before this reaches some kind of tipping point; where enough of the herd realizes all at once, the lie.

Positioning:

The last post has us breaking the rules. Was that the right thing to do?

This morning’s price action has the answer: Yes.

The Project Stimulus table has been updated to include the new (hard) stop level. With LABD currently up a good 5.50%, and looking to move higher, it’s not likely the stop will be hit.

There is one caveat: As of this post, IBB has not printed a new daily low. That leaves the (slight) possibility open for a move higher.

Several attempts have been made to short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation). It looks like the current attempt is underway.

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Breakin’ the Law

12:09 p.m. EST:

‘Know when to break the rules’

‘Always follow the rules’ was the admonition of Ed Seykota.

Almost in the very next sentence of his interview he said, ‘know when to break the rules’.

Could this be it?

At trader’s discretion, we’re maintaining short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

More analysis to follow.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

What is Risk?

9:06 a.m. EST:

Each retrace higher in biotech (IBB) has a lower top.

Right now, risk has been squeezed down to the hash-marked area on the chart.

It’s the distance between 153.84 and 153.15, just 0.69-points.

A push past the previous retrace high of 153.84, means IBB is now sub-dividing higher; exiting the current short position is warranted (not advice, not a recommendation).

Pre-market action has IBB trading higher but below the last session high.

This juncture, 0.69-points from subdividing higher or reversal, is a low risk area; the distance from exiting or maintaining short is narrow.

The daily chart below has price action with Fibonacci projections.

Yesterday, IBB touched and reversed from the 50% projected level … thus giving it some amount of validation.

As sated in previous updates (from empirical observation), if price action gets to the 50% level, it tends to continue on to at least a 61.8%.

We’ll see if that’s the case here.

Fundamentals and News:

Fundamentally, the wheels continue to fall off the narrative.

Yet again, we have posts like this showing the devastation of experimental gene ‘therapy’.

Here’s another horror show.

Positioning:

The ‘Project’ remains short the sector via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation). The stop may have been moved up too quickly (a possible error), so we’ll see what happens with early action.

Summary:

We’re at the edge where IBB either posts higher and continues with a bull move or it stalls and reverses.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

“We have the evidence”

12:13 p.m. EST:

The link, located here is an interview with Reiner Fuellmich, a lawyer (a good one) that’s been at the center of the ‘speck’ investigation since inception.

This one interview, all nineteen-minutes, thirty one seconds, is probably the best summary of the current situation.

The link above comes with a warning:

If you’re one of those still asleep, after watching the interview, you’ll never be the same. You’ll be forever changed.

To put it biblically, “Your eyes will be opened”.

That is, if this lie can be perpetrated world-wide (as it has), then what does that say about all other media generated propaganda: the (stolen) election, the fake oval office, the fake executive orders, the fake insurrection.

The examples above are just from the past six-months!

For emphasis, we’ll throw in one more link that seems un-related but it’s not; it shows just how long events have been purposely shaped to fit a narrative.

Of course, this ‘thought shaping’ goes back even farther … if not a hundred years or more.

Market Impact:

So, what’s all this have to do with the markets and specifically biotech, IBB?

The interview’s implications for biotech are clear.

David Stockman has a post located here whose title sums it up nicely:

‘… a scam like no other’.

It’s just a matter of time before the public is either awakened or severely, permanently, damaged by following (and believing) the lie.

This time around, cemeteries are likely to be overrun … for real.

If that happens, repercussions to the biotech sector would (likely) be severe to catastrophic (down -90%, maybe?).

Even though a few within IBB are directly involved, all are likely to take a hit

Market Positioning:

In our Project Stimulus table, we’re short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation). The stop has been moved above break-even.

It’s important to not let fundamentals (above) bleed into market positioning. It’s impossible to say when or if fundamentals will take control.

What we have now is IBB looking as if those fundamentals are providing a backdrop for technical action (described below). However, technical action can change instantly.

Biotech, IBB Technical Analysis:

Typically, this morning’s action would signal a ‘short exit’ or ‘go long’; when price action immediately gaps above the prior session high.

However, we already know on a long term (quarterly, monthly, weekly) basis, IBB has reversed. That does not mean price can’t go into some type of truncated rally … it can.

What the long term momentum says, if a rally occurs, it’s likely to be short and reverse quickly.

As of this post, it looks like whatever rally there was, it was over within the hour.

Technically, we have an interesting situation. IBB may have formed an Andrews’ Pitchfork.

The first chart shows the set up and has the width of the Pitchfork at a Fibonacci 21-days (plus one).

The second chart is a compressed version for better perspective.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Pre-Market

9:13 a.m. EST: Since the ‘project’s’ positioned short biotech, that’s the focus for the morning.

The last two updates, here and here, showed biotech acting differently than other markets.

With IBB currently down nearly -15%, from its all time print high, it’s already in ‘correction’ territory; just a few percent more, it’ll be classified as ‘bear market’.

The weekly close shows another bearish set-up with what looks like a Head & Shoulders pattern. Note the second ‘bounce’ off the neckline was markedly lower than the first.

Energy to the upside is dissipating. Price action may be ready to penetrate the neckline.

As of this post, inverse fund LABD is trading unchanged to slightly higher (on about 24,000 shares).

If there’s a decisive move lower in IBB (higher LABD), we’ll change the LABD stop. With a current stop at 22.96, (not advice, not a recommendation) we’re right at break even.

Truth Begins to Surface

Stated many times on this site, with such a big (world-wide) lie, it’ll be hard to keep the truth under wraps … especially so, when scenes like this are everyday events.

Several corporations in the IBB sector, are providing the public ‘service’ shown in the above link. We’ll go into their technical condition in a separate update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech … Down, Down, Down

Momentum:

Monthly, weekly and daily MACD histogram, all down.

We’ll look at several daily charts before moving on to weekly and P&F.

Above, the Head & Shoulders pattern is clear. There’s a down-sloping neckline with a rally that looks to be rolling over.

An alternate view are two wedge patterns:

On to the weekly. A Fibonacci projection has been added showing down move potential.

Lastly, daily P&F with its own projections.

Interesting to note: Range from 104 – 127, closely matches the 100.0% – 161.8%, Fibonacci range of 108.50 – 128:

From the previous update, biotech IBB, appears to have broken from the crowd. Momentum indicators on multiple timeframes have all lined up to the downside.

Friday’s after-market activity (BigCharts), has IBB down -0.84, on a solid 1,035,712, shares.

If the aftermarket volume is correct (no misprints or errors), it’s equivalent to 25% , of the entire volume for the day’s regular session.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Print High & Close

The table lists well known index ETF’s; along with most recent highs and current (Friday) close:

All the usual suspects are there:

S&P 500, SPY, The Dow 30, DIA, Nasdaq, QQQ, and on.

What’s also listed is how far each index (ETF) is from its most recent all time high or ‘recovery’ high (in percentage terms).

Obviously, one of these is completely out of bed: Biotech, IBB

We’ll be discussing the technical condition of biotech tomorrow. For now, the updated ‘project’ chart’s included below:

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Before The Open

9:02 a.m., EST:

Decisive trend break and test. Biotech IBB’s, ready to continue downside action.

Today may be the day for downside follow-through. We’ll see.

The work has already been done showing long term IBB, has reversed to the downside. Reference posts here and here, if needed.

The hourly chart of inverse fund LABD (3X inverse, IBB) shows pre-market range along with potential trend activity.

Yesterday, IBB was shorted via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation). Project table below:

If and when IBB makes a new daily low and LABD a new daily high, the stop will be moved. If so, the GTC stop order is likely to be updated toward the end of the session.

As this post is being created, Bid/Ask spreads on LABD are fluctuating.

Last trade @ 23.31 +0.23, +1.00%. Earlier, pre-market trading was lower.

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.