Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Peak Gold?

May 7, 2025 By in Elliott Wave, GLD, Prechter, ZeroHedge

Are We There, Yet?

It’s been nothing but hysteria, for gold.

The following is just a partial list from the past few days:

Gold Soars To Another New High, What’s The Message? Link here. Website link here.

Gold Soars $145 in 48 hours as China Takes Charge, link here

What Is Gold Trying to Tell Us? Link here.

Bullion, Bonds, & Black Gold Bid, But Stocks Skid As Bessent Bats Down Beijing Deal Bets. Link here.

Short Dollar, Long Gold; But Goldman’s Hatzius Hedges Between Hard Data Catch-Down & Positive China Mood Swings. Link here.

Gold: Like a Cork in Water. Link here.

Whales And Minnows Swimming To Gold. Link Here. Website link here.

On, it goes.

Gold GLD, Weekly: Then & Now

Shown below are two charts. The first is back from 2011, at the last major top.

The next chart is now.

Back in 2011, the massive Force Index, was posted before the high; a Fibonacci five-weeks, before.

Looking at the current chart, we have another massive Force Index, with the same value: 1.8B.

If the market follows the example of the past, we’re in that ‘fifth week’, now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Health Care Reversal … Example

May 6, 2025 By in Federal Reserve, Health Care, Interest Rates, Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03, XOP 3 Comments

Looking For The Oil Patch

The Healthcare Sector (XLV) has reversed hard to the downside.

The set-up: Blue line resistance, penetrated during a breakout, then failing.

That’s what we’re looking for in Oil Sector, XOP.

While we wait, XOP looks to be quite weak, and the breakout may never come.

Tomorrow, we have the Fed announcement. That might provide some XOP upside, however temporary (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil Sector (short) Target

May 5, 2025 By in CLM25, Oil, Oil & Gas, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XOP 1 Comment

Looking For The Breakout … That Fails

At this juncture, oil futures are in a minor ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

The gap lower open discussed in last night’s update, has been closed (as expected).

What we’re looking for now (for potential XOP short), is a push higher in the futures (CLM25) to the 60 – 61 area.

Oil & Gas Sector ETF, XOP, Daily

At mid-session, XOP is trading right at resistance.

Note: Two gaps straddle the wide-high volume bar of April 3rd. As we know, wide, high-volume bars, tend to be tested.

That’s what we’re looking for.

An upside test of at least one of the gaps that fails; thus creating a Wyckoff up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

May 4, 2025 By in Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SLV, GLD, XOP, Oil, Oil & Gas, CLM25 Tags: 1 Comment

Gold, Silver & The Oil Patch

We’re about three-hours into the Sunday overnight session and here’s what’s happening, and what’s not.

Both gold and silver are holding steady; oil, has opened gap-down, trading lower by -3.4%.

Yesterday’s update showed the oil patch to be ‘exceptionally’ weak. The Sunday night open, is confirming that assessment (not advice, not a recommendation).

Market Directed Action

The market itself tells us where to go for opportunity.

At this point, it’s telling us to focus on the oil sector.

Looking at the futures contract, CLM25, there’s not a single major gap that has not been filled or nearly filled.

That tells us, probabilities point to some kind of upward move (to close the gap) which in turn, tells us to monitor the sector (ETF) index, XOP.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Oil Patch (short)

May 3, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, XOP 2 Comments

Tricks of The Trade

During the ‘tariff’ meltdown, the oil patch XOP, took a hit right along with (nearly) everyone else.

Then, the markets began to recover. The oil sector … not so much.

When looking at that ‘recovery’ with respect to the highs of mid-June 2022, XOP, has only retraced Fibonacci 23.6%, located (approximately) just below the blue resistance line.

Oil & Gas Sector XOP, Weekly

Price action has yet to push significantly above the ‘short squeeze’ level, posted during the week of April 11th.

In fact, when compared to recovery action in other markets, this one is exceptionally weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next, we’ll look at the daily chart and identify possible up-coming targets for short positioning (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners, Call It Quits

May 2, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, SILJ, SLV

For Now, At Least

All three index ETFs, GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ, posting lower, with the silver miners down the most.

The lower action couples with lower silver (SLV) and nearly lower gold (GLD).

For Junior Miners GDXJ, as of this post (12:28 p.m., EST), it’s showing ‘outside down’.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

It’s important to note, yesterday’s update said there would (likely) be an attempt to move higher.

That’s what happened; then, price action reversed.

The chart shows how short position, JDST-25-10, is being managed. Lowering the stop (higher for JDST) in the direction of the trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note, work has already been done on potential, significant reversal for gold and on-going, languishing of silver: Links here, here, here, here and here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Down … China Sells

May 1, 2025 By in China, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, SILJ, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

You Can’t Make This Stuff Up

Wasn’t gold (GLD) going to launch ever higher in some kind of dollar-destruction, de-dollarization, worldwide meltdown?

Well, it might happen (eventually), but not today.

With today’s GLD, gap-down reversal (dollar higher), the press is gasping, groping for direction as the Chinese of all people are selling in huge amounts, links here and here.

Weren’t they just recently buying in massive quantities?

Behind all the hype and hyperbole, the potential for (a gold) reversal was identified ahead of time, links here and here.

With that said, let’s review how this site positioned itself for today’s excitement.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

The current short position, JDST-25-10, was opened April 25th, then doubled on the 28th (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ve penetrated support.

Technically speaking, that puts GDXJ, in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. An attempt to move higher from here, is ‘normal’ market behavior (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Stop, Drop, And Roll

April 30, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Federal Reserve, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Then, There’s Carvana

The SOXX, hit resistance, stopped, dropped, and could be rolling over for more downside … or not.

Maybe there’s something else developing.

Something like a set-up to penetrate resistance, creating a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

The magenta dashed line is the 38.2%, retrace for the entire downside move; from the top on July 11th, 2024, to the lows on April 7th.

Note the potential Fibonacci time correlation, just before the Fed announcement on May 7th.

As with Carvana (CVNA), we’re nearing a potential inflection.

Also note, Carvana has dropped from the current resistance area (around 240) making that level the more probable area for an up-thrust, rather than yesterday’s 310-location (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Nears Potential Set-Up

April 29, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Two Times?

Caravana’s earnings are coming up on May 7th, after hours.

Will it print (like last time) above resistance to the 310-area?

If it does, will that action hold unto the regular session the next day?

The reason it’s important as we’ll see below, a push above resistance creates the potential set-up: Spring-To-Up-Thrust, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The earnings release just so happens to be Fibonacci 55 (trading) days from the prior release.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Short’ Bounce

April 28, 2025 By in Dollar, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-10, Positions, UUP 1 Comment

Nuance, In The Retrace

A nuance in price action can have (significant) meaning or be obliterated at the next session.

It’s no secret the dollar, gold, and the miners, are all at extremes.

The dollar is down, gold is stretched in a potential blow-off, and miners (GDXJ), just posted action that may be important (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

The last two days have printed a low of 60.13, but this is not the low of Wednesday, the 23rd. That low is 60.05, below the last two day’s lows.

Why is that important?

The last two days have not made new daily lows, so have not created a potential price action reversal (pushing below 60.05, and reversing).

We can also see, today’s bounce is to 23.6%, while last Thursday’s bounce was to 38.2%.

This all may mean something or not.

With the extremes noted at the outset, it may not take long to find out if the distinctions are important (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279