Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
There’s something very wrong with the “hyperinflation” narrative.
The gold miners GDX can’t even get to a full 38% retrace level without collapsing.
Price action has negated the targets from the prior update.
It should be clear at this point, a monstrous 5,600 page, so-called stimulus package is not inflationary.
For an irreverent look at what’s in that bill, reference “Salty Cracker”.
By the way, just how long does it take to write 5,600 pages? A couple of years, maybe?
Probably as much time as it took to write the original CARES Act … which was submitted (put in committee) to Congress during January 2019 … a full nine months before anyone even heard of the “speck” in Wuhan.
The inference is, both of these bills were planned long ago and have been in the works for years.
Which brings us to gold and the miners.
The hourly chart of GDX shows two wide bars in today’s session. The 35.00 – 35.50, area is support that may stop the down move for now.
Wide price bars usually get tested. Today’s action (as of 1:34 p.m. EST) shows GDX is moving quickly.
Expectation now, is for GDX price action to test the wide bars. That could take hours or days … or not at all.
If there is a test, the most likely stopping point is yesterday’s low at GDX, 36.18
In other markets, the short position in XOP (via DUG) is being maintained. Stop has been moved to DUG, 26.63; not advice, not a recommendation.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If GDX continues in counter-trend action, an equal distance wave ‘c’ is the area GDX, 37.80.
Fibonacci Day 21 from the lows in late November, puts the counter-trend top on or about, December 23rd.
With the stimulus bill essentially a sure thing and gold going nowhere, something else behind the scenes is happening.
We’ll stick with the Van Metre assessment that stimulus is deflationary; Until proven otherwise.
From ‘uneducated economist’, linked here, he proposes there’s slight of hand going on yet again. The inference is, that somehow holding the actual physical cash note may (not advice, not a recommendation) become very important.
Following up on his comment is this: There’s a limited amount of actual physical currency in circulation as detailed here.
So worthless paper fiat currency, in an ironic twist, might become valuable for a short period of time … yet to come.
The job of this firm is not to figure out the nuances and details of the Fed.
The job is to identify probability and opportunity; then take advantage. Interpreting price action takes decades to master … it’s a full time job in itself.
With that in mind, we’re currently short (not advice, not a recommendation) Oil & Gas via DUG.
The senior miners are on track to test the 37.50 – 38.00 area. GDX will be monitored if/when it rises into that level. If so, it could be another low risk short opportunity.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Like GLD, in this report, GDX looks like it’s correcting in a-b-c, type fashion.
The GDX chart shows the Fibonacci projection with target indicated (blue line and arrow).
If the dollar (UUP, proxy) reverses and heads towards resistance 24.75 – 24.80, while gold counter-trends higher, we’ll have a tenuous situation.
Something will break; gold or dollar and probably both. The dollar higher, gold along with the rest of the market, lower.
With so many short on dollar and bonds, if UUP gets to underside resistance, a reversal (to test back to 24.50 lows) could be very short lived.
Keep in mind, when it all comes apart at the seams, it’s likely to be quick.
In other markets, XOP in the pre-market shows a slightly higher open with DUG showing lower.
After the session is over and if there’s a new daily high in DUG, the stop will be moved up (not advice, not a recommendation).
Separately, and as public service, here’s a link to an old article written by Robert Prechter Jr., way back in 1986; what it takes to be successful in the markets.
It’s a good read … probably the most important part is the last bullet item, No. 5 “The Mental Fortitude To Accept Huge Gains”
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It did not take long to be proven wrong. DUST positions (in both accounts) have been exited.
Stated before, a 23.6% retrace is a rare event. Looks like that’s holding true as price action for GDX now points to the 38.2% area.
That corresponds to GDX trading to around ~ 38 … a long way to go higher.
Biotech, shown below is just 0.69-pts shy of target with price action (as of 10:34 a.m. EST) coming back to test the early session lows.
It’s traders discretion (not advice, not a recommendation) to determine if today is the day IBB finally reverses and confirms the bearish weekly MACD divergence.
At this point, daily action has quickly retraced from the high of 149.31
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
At this time (9:07 a.m. EST) gold (GLD) is slightly higher, with lower action in miners, GDX and inverse fund DUST trading higher.
Probabilities for lower action in gold and miners assessed over the weekend in this report, appears to be correct.
Gold posted a new daily low but as the pre-market continues, price action is oscillating towards unchanged in both GLD and GDX.
The main point with the early session, gold has not made a new daily high in the overnight.
Whether or not we’re in a trading channel as shown in the DUST chart below, is unknown.
Price action itself will have to decide on the trend validity.
Market stop in DUST remains at 20.81 (not advice, not a recommendation) and will be moved higher to break-even as soon as possible.
The dollar is up slightly along with bonds. From Steven Van Metre’s report on Sunday, both remain at short-level extremes.
He also notes gold and the dollar are moving lower in tandem.
Something’s not right and one of the markets will likely respond and confirm the other.
Obviously, we’re ready and positioned for a dollar reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Dow can either reverse right here or breakout higher from its wedge.
Since the trend is already up, a breakout to the upside is more likely. Such a move brings in a forecast to around 31,300.
The daily chart below has the last part of the wedge expanded and posted at the bottom of the chart.
Important to note is the location of the Gold (GLD) bull trap.
Recall, the firm went heavily short (via JDST) on that Friday and had to wait over the weekend to find out if the analysis was correct.
This excerpt (emphasis added) is from the November 7th, update. It was a Saturday; we’re already short and waiting.
“No doubt, there are a lot of well respected traders, analysts, YouTuber’s that are on the bullish side of the market. Here are just some examples, here, here, and here.
So, at this juncture, this firm is taking the opposite side of the trade with its re-established position in JDST.”
The following Monday in the early morning hours, gold prices collapsed. The bulls were trapped.
As the market opened with gold down hard, the Dow and S&P both spiked up in what’s now a terminal wedge.
‘Terminal’, because this type of price action typically comes at the end of a sustained move … up or down.
At this juncture, the firm is positioned short gold (via DUST) with a tight stop (not advice, not a recommendation).
The stops (two trading accounts short) are not mental, out of the market but are actual open GTC stop orders.
That way if there’s an internet upset or power grid problem, the in-the-market stops will provide some amount of protection.
All of the above may be an excellent analysis of current conditions.
However, behind the scenes, the macro or the real agenda, is deadly serious.
The ‘plan’ all along is to destroy (and subjugate) the middle class. That’s been in the works for decades. Neo Feudalism.
ShadowStats reports here, real unemployment spiked to 35% early in the year and has come down to just over 25% now.
That level is still above 1930s, depression-era numbers and we’re just at the first wave of middle class destruction.
Throw in more economic turmoil and a stock market crash. Then we have ‘fait accompli’. Only a tiny remnant could be left unscathed.
Note the picture at the top: The haves and have-nots.
From The Money GPS: ‘The chasm in-between the haves and the have-nots, grows every single day’
Self employment is the key. It’s not a guarantee but it does offer flexibility and most importantly it may offer some extra time.
The above statements may seem harsh (possibly outlandish) to those not yet awake.
To help in that area, two links are provided here and here. See for yourself whether or not we’re at a critical juncture.
Based on yesterday’s analysis, the expectation is for gold and the miners (GDX) to continue lower.
If they do and the markets (Dow, S&P) continue higher, it’s just one more indication the time for reversal is near.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 