Category Archives: LABD-23-10

Biotech … History Repeats

October 22, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-10, LABD-23-11, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Unraveling, By-The-Day

Well, pretty much everything is unraveling, so in a sense biotech’s no different.

However, this sector (SPBIO, $SPSIBI), is the weakest of all the major indices (from 2020 – 2022, highs), down approx. 62%.

We’ll get to the ‘history repeats’ part farther down but first a reminder, this site’s about Strategy, Tactics, and Focus, i.e., Livermore, Wyckoff, and Loeb.

It looks like we’re already in a full-blown economic, societal (population) collapse, i.e., Strategy.

Biotech appears to be the weakest sector, i.e., Tactics.

The (shorting) action is on that sector exclusively, i.e., Focus.

Not advice, not a recommendation.

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, 8-Day

Since the Fibonacci 8-Day chart was used for the update on gold, GLD, we’ll use it for this post.

All trendlines shown on the chart are exactly parallel.

The market itself has presented a tendency to trend at the rate shown in the ‘Trading Channel’.

It’s happened before; identified as ‘Repeating Trendline’.

Positioning

This series of short trades on SPBIO, opened via LABD, and identified as LABD-23-10, LABD-23-11, are fully documented here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here.

From a Wyckoff perspective, the market itself is telling us to ‘do nothing’, maintain the trade unless stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Free-Fall’, For Biotech … Closer

October 12, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD-23-10, LABD-23-11, Positions, SPBIO, The List, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Downside Pressure Builds

With this session’s price action continuing lower, getting back into the short trade (via LABD) was the correct move (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, we’re nearing the dangerous part.

Downside pressure continues to build.

As the chart shows, SPBIO ($SPSIBI) is close to the point where there’s no more support until much lower levels.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Daily

The Blue arrows highlight short entries (via LABD).

Short No. 1 was subsequently stopped out yesterday, then re-established (the same day) at the next arrow, No. 2.

If and when price action gets to the ‘free-fall’ area, anything can happen.

We could bounce off the support level, hover at it, or slice straight through.

Positioning

It’s obvious this sector’s in trouble. The fundamentals continue to build.

Just a few days after this post we have two more to add to ‘The List’, here and here.

Yesterday’s post showed a not-so-good entry that at this point in today’s session, has been ‘healed’ by price action.

We’re well above that (LABD 21.69) entry and solidly in the green (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop on the LABD-23-11, position is now being moved (tentatively) higher at today’s low of, LABD 22.01.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Back In The Saddle … Biotech

October 11, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, LABD, LABD-23-10, LABD-23-11, Positions, SPBIO 3 Comments

The ‘Perfection’ Mind-Trap

‘Once stopped out, the amateur will never re-enter the trade.’

That’s Dr. Alexander Elder, stating a typical psychological barrier for the new trader.

As if by design, as soon as the short trade LABD-23-10, was named, it was stopped out early this session.

About thirty minutes after the open, price action reversed its early session direction and re-confirmed the original bearish assessment of the sector.

Naming The Trade

From a personal standpoint, the psychological barrier of never getting back in a trade once stopped out, was addressed years ago.

It’s frustrating, but what’s worse, is watching one’s original premise turn into a ten-bagger and not being along for the ride.

With that said, the short in biotech has been re-established via LABD, at a far-from-perfect entry of 21.69, and a not-so good stop of 20.54 (not advice, not a recommendation)

We’ll name this one at the outset as LABD-23-11

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (Short) Trade Update

October 9, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-10, Positions, SPBIO, The List, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Behind The Scenes, Biotech Verifies Trend

Hardly a day goes by where we don’t get some kind of biotech ‘conspiracy’ or exposé like this, this, this, or this.

True or not, from a trading standpoint, we’re interested in reality.

So far, that reality, i.e., the price action, says that out of all the major sectors (except bonds, perhaps), biotech, and specifically, SPBIO ($SPSIBI) is the weakest (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Trade With No Name

Since the existing short on biotech via LABD is solidly in the green (original entry @ 16.99), it’s going to be tracked on this site as LABD-23-10, indicating the tenth series (trade campaign) this year.

Biotech SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

The first chart shows the original entry (documented here and here) and the stop progression.

The second chart shows that we’re in a trading channel, confirmed with today’s higher (daily) high, with SPBIO, lower.

During this session, the stop has been tightened up to LABD 20.74 (Friday’s low).

With that, it could all be over soon, i.e., getting stopped out; or, it’s just a continuing series of well-disciplined progressions protecting open profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279