Lowe’s … Re-Visited

Mid Session

Spring, To Up-Thrust, Completes

The daily chart of LOW (above), is how it looked one month ago. This report highlighted, certain market behaviors repeat.

Now, we have an apparent up-thrust completion.

There may be other equities in a similar (up-thrust) position as of this post … One such potential is Carmax (KMX).

Opinion:

Successful trading, is a game of attrition.

The LOW set-up, that looks to be complete (for a short position) has probably lost all market participant interest at this point.

The i-phone crowd, looking for the next fix, is not going to wait around and monitor for a month to see if price action follows a well tested set-up pattern.

After things get moving though … they’ll be back, as Dr. Elder states; ‘being both lazy, and late.’

Summary:

We’re not shorting LOW (not advice, not a recommendation) as there’re plenty of opportunities with leveraged inverse funds (again, not advice, not a recommendation).

The point of this update is to show, once again, the market, LOW in this case, has gone from ‘spring to up-thrust’; a repeating price action phenomena.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold (GDX) Experiments

Before The Open

Looking At The 3-Day GDX, Chart

As Dr. Elder once said (paraphrasing): ‘There are many ways to make money in the markets … even more ways to lose it.’

The time required to master the basics like support, resistance, accumulation, distribution is up to the individual.

After that however, the experimentation starts: Fibonacci retrace, time sequences, technical forces, multiple time frames and on.

Experimenting with the chart of Senior Gold Miners GDX, shows at this time, a 3-Day chart reveals nuances not seen (so easily) in the daily or weekly.

We’re going to invert the chart to mimic the GDX inverse fund DUST (without the tracking errors) as shown below:

Then comes the mark-up:

All of a sudden, it becomes clear. Inverted GDX has been in a series of springs (up-thrust, non-inverted) and is now pivoting to the upside. That pivot is shown with the green arrows.

Each 3-Day period having a higher low than before.

As detailed in this prior update, GDX is potentially on the verge of ‘free fall’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Pre-market trading has GDX, lower with DUST higher.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Run fast … or, Not at all

3:48 p.m., EST

Biotech ‘Gut-Check’

One of Dr. Elder’s admonitions was: ‘Run fast or not at all’ when confronted with retracing price action.

The trade plan from months ago, concerning the biotech short (not advice not a recommendation), was that potential for collapse was so great, the trade was going to be maintained (and increased) until it either worked out for profit or the price action was so obvious that ‘now, was not the time’.

If there ever was a time in the past five-weeks for SPBIO bulls to take back control, this is it.

However, to prove they’ve got the upper hand, inverse fund LABD would have to make a new weekly low … at least.

That (low) has yet to happen.

The inverse LABD tape is a sea of red and purple; at the bid, below the bid, mass selling … having the look of capitulation by the bears.

It’s possible we’ll know more over the next few days.

At this juncture, LABD price action is testing a support-boundary area while also testing the right side weekly trend line.

Marked charts are below:

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Targets

12:34 p.m., EST

Upside Breakout Eroding

Potential Wyckoff Up-Thrust (reversal)

Measured Move Targets

Starting with the (unmarked) weekly chart of IBB below, we see the current upside breakout.

We’re going to invert the chart and label the ‘resistance’ as ‘support’.

Inverting charts is a technique discovered years ago in a long since forgotten trading text; possibly Dr. Elder’s

The ‘inverting exercise’ is to help eliminate chart bias.

For example: If you see bullish no matter which way you turn the chart … there’s a preconditioned bias that’s affecting decisions.

On to the inverted chart:

What we see above, is a typical Wyckoff spring set-up.

Price action has decisively penetrated support (resistance on the regular chart) and is now eroding.

The distance of the trading range is shown as the dashed line.

Look at the near perfect symmetry.

Putting the range bar at the top of the trading range gives a measured move … right into resistance (support) of the next range.

Price typically moves down, two or three times as fast, as it moves up.

That’s why the professional speculators (throughout trading history) prefer down markets. If there are profits, they show up a lot faster.

Fundamentals:

Enormous pressure continues to build against the sector. You have to wonder what’s it’s going to take for the big break.

Just out last night, was this report from ZeroHedge. The CDC is having an emergency meeting to discuss ‘heart inflammation’ problems with the injections.

Let’s start there with a ‘safe’ topic and not discuss things like ‘dead within 15-minutes’ of injection.

Or maybe this one: A bloke gets himself injected and nearly kills two people with his truck a few minutes later.

The date on the video is June 11th. People are still getting this thing even with so much adverse reaction (death) information available?

The two narrating have a good point. What happens when a pilot is on final approach in bad weather, when he suddenly goes into an ‘event’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Random Notes

The usual suspects for the week.

No.1

During the 1918, Spanish Flu, only the speck injected died.

No. 2

Published numbers (if you can believe them) say 38%, of those in the U.S. have received speck injection.

It’s gets interesting when you crank the numbers for Russia.

Using population data from this source, only 3.7%, of them have received the same injection:

About 90%, less than U.S.

Guess who’s coming to dinner?

Meaning, guess who’s going to be in a better position from a military strength and health standpoint.

No. 3

Here’s a cheap, effective defensive tool. Looks bad but it works.

I had the former owner of Texas Tactical, tell me one time …

“Whatever the .45 hits, is coming off.”

Here’s a reminder of what the .45, can do: Time Stamp: 0:39.

Dead before you hit the ground.

No.4

“The best way to control the opposition is to lead it ourselves.” – Vladimir Lenin

No. 5

Legitimizing the lies

Just 17-seconds into this video and we have our answer whether this is news you can trust.

Useful idiots.

See No. 9, below for an update on what’s really going on.

No. 6

Working through comments on ZeroHedge, brings up this link, on mind control.

No. 7

Clouds on Mars. Really?

With atmosphere just 1% of Earth …. that’s one-percent; somehow we get clouds forming that have a strangely familiar ‘metallic sheen’ to them just like you see after a high level ‘spraying’ right here on Earth.

No. 8

“Virtue signaling little turds”

Time stamp 1:57, at this link lays it out.

The plus side; As we get closer to the fall (regular flu season) … just months away, everyone’s going to have a fantastic opportunity to find out what there’re really made of.

Bravery’s like a muscle. It needs to be exercised often.

Time to get the popcorn ready.

No. 9

‘Speck injection stakeholders are going to be disappointed with the success of the program’ (time stamp: 2:08).

Yes, indeed.

It’s possible the fundamental and technical conditions of the biotech sector are lining up.

As Dr. Elder said in his book years ago, when this type of alignment occurs, the resulting move can be extremely powerful.

We’ve just had a potential test and downside reversal of SPBIO at the 23.6%, level; an indication of severe weakness.

No. 10

Peer reviewed stupidity

This one’s a corollary to No. 8

In a way, it’s nice to see that mediocrity, stupidity and laziness may be set for a thorough house cleaning.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Breaking Down Biotech

Was last week the correction?

Is it over?

To provide perspective on that question, we need to go back in time.

First, to Dr. Elder’s “Entries & Exits“, published in 2006.

Then, way back to “Reminiscences“, published in 1923.

As a reminder, we’re looking at biotech (SPBIO) from the perspective of being short the market.

The primary vehicle for that short, is highly leveraged inverse fund, LABD.

The last update gave a hint at the desired timeframe.

If the markets are in the process of reversing, ultimately going to the long awaited (since 2009), final draw-down (i.e. crash), then a likely bottom would occur where they (almost) always occur; during the third week of October.

In a nutshell, that’s the time frame.

Conversely, price action is the final arbiter. If biotech winds up effectively saying ‘not now’, well then, it has the final say.

Back to ‘Entries & Exits’.

One of the traders highlighted in the book (in addition to Weis), was William Doane; former Head Technician for Fidelity.

His timeframe is much longer than the typical market participant. He, like Weis are looking at monthly, quarterly and yearly charts.

That fact in and of itself, provides an edge.

One of the main take-aways from his section was (paraphrasing):

‘The first correction is the hardest. If you can get through that, it’s typically smooth sailing from then on’.

The biotech short via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation) may be at that point now. Painful to watch but necessary.

Next, we go to ‘Reminiscences’.

Those who have read the book, know all about ‘Turkey’; Mr. Partridge.

As the book states, he was much older than the rest who frequented the brokerage. Also, he did not appear to be that active in the markets (thus minimizing his transactions). He was interested in the big move.

The admonition from Partridge, was: ‘Don’t lose your position’. Don’t exit out, expecting a pull-back … that ultimately never comes.

So, we have two examples; three if you include Weis that begin from the very long time-frames and work inward.

Now, on to the market:

The long term, Quarterly analysis has already been done; linked here.

The chart in the link, is from last quarter and since then, (during this quarter), we’ve made new lows.

On the fundamental side, evidence is building by the day on what the ‘speck’ protection is all about.

If you’re really interested in the big picture, here’s a link to a five-plus hour presentation that spells it all out.

Here’s J. P. Sears’ take on the same thing.

SPBIO, the daily chart:

The SPBIO, has been inverted and annotated

We’re currently between support and resistance.

Momentum indicators MACD, on the Monthly and Weekly remain in a downtrend.

Using IBB, as the proxy for Quarterly momentum (not enough data for SPBIO), the indicator is flat.

Momentum’s in favor of (maintaining) a short position; not advice, not a recommendation.

The monthly chart of SPBIO (inverted), has price action coming back to former resistance (now support). This is normal market behavior.

Recall, that on the downside, if there is some kind of ‘event’, markets can slice through apparent support levels with ease.

With that in mind, on the inverted chart above, the next major ‘resistance’ level may or may not be of consequence.

Summary:

Each trading week is important.

However, next week will likely a pivotal one; providing more information on whether to maintain short or exit and stand aside; not advice, not a recommendation.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Mark of The Beast .. in Reverse?

If you’ve received the mark, you may not buy or sell.

That’s a twist.

In what may become a common theme, at least one business owner’s refusing to serve (as is his right) those who have received ‘speck’ protection.

The interview, linked here, shows he’s wide awake and has done his own research.

Those injected are a threat to the rest of us.

Whether or not we’re in the times of the mark (and whether the speck protection is the mark) is of course, debatable.

However, with even a cursory look around, we can see the great deception and the great falling away.

Personally, I presented years ago to family members, that ‘the church’ has become so corrupt, when the time comes, they’ll be the ones distributing the mark.

Does this link prove the point?

Or, how about this link … or, this one … or, this one.

“So then because thou art lukewarm, and neither cold nor hot, I will spue thee out of my mouth.”

Revelation 3:16

There’s literally going to be hell to pay for those complicit in this evil.

In a very small way, this site’s doing its part to separate from the complicit; find and walk the narrow path; get the word out.

Back to biotech: Technical and fundamental:

Fundamental:

Obviously, the case against biotech continues to build.

There’s now a site that’s been created to track and document speck related information.

Some of the doctors referenced yesterday (time stamp: 13:32), have started a database cataloguing adverse reactions. Nobody else is doing it. Certainly not big pharma.

Technical:

As presented yesterday, this may be it for the upside in biotech.

LABD (3X inverse SPBIO) downside thrust energy has eroded significantly.

That’s in addition to the largest hourly upward thrust energy spike for LABD since before June 17th, of last year.

Project Stimulus:

Mentioned yesterday, the format of the updates are being changed.

In a cue taken from Dr. Elder about discussing open trades (i.e. not to), at this point, only closed trades will be discussed in the project.

By presenting specific (time, entry, stop, etc.) details on a market action and/or position, that in itself will affect the outcome.

Any engineers reading this will need no further explanation. For more info reference this link.

We’ll leave it with … there’s an open position in LABD. Detail of that position will be discussed when it’s closed.

Thank you,

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The 38.2%, Retrace

The last update contained the following statement:

“Such a shallow retrace is rare. More typical is at least a 38.2%, level being tested before price reverses and heads lower. “

Back in the days of my engineering work (see About), when making a statement or conclusion, other engineers (or science professionals) would immediately expect some kind of proof or supporting documentation.

It’s just the way their brains worked; it’s somewhat an implied (unspoken) requirement of the industry and a good thing as well.

A good engineering team (along with technicians) functioned more like a select military unit than a civilian office.

Very heady stuff; especially if you’re on a major project like aircraft flight test and certification.

So, after observing and working thirty-plus years of price action, the empirical observation of 38.2%, retrace being more common than 23.6%, had become my own mental note. Filed away with the other mental notes of price action.

That note’s easily supported … even on the fly as we’ll see below.

We have three charts of equities in the silver/gold mining sector that are currently all in a retrace.

Two of those went straight to 38.2%, while one of them hit 23.6%, first and then went on to 38.2%.

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) retraces to 38.2% and stalls.

Seabridge Gold (SA) retraces to 38.2% and stalls.

Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) retraces first to 23.6%, and then moves on to 38.2% … and stalls.

Reading price action is partially an art-form and partially a science. The one thing that can’t (ever) be leap-frogged is experience.

Dr. Elder said it himself when he said ‘trading is an old man’s game’.

If you don’t have (but want) the experience, it’s best to get started now. Start racking up the hours … days … weeks and years.

Market Summary:

Steven Van Meter in this update (time stamp 1:39) shows the Rydex Bull/Bear ratio (courtesy of northmantrader.com). That indicator, along with what seems like everything else, is at a never before extreme.

Margin debt too, is literally off the charts.

To end on a more sober note, this link supports the prior statement about how many have received so-called ‘speck’ protection.

This video hints at what may be a likely outcome.

More from the source itself.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.