Category Archives: SOXS-25-04

Navigating The A.I., Minefield

February 4, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Nissam Taleb, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-04, SOXX, Usual Suspects

One Trade, At A Time

Even if we knew the A.I. bubble has burst, that it’s beginning a multi-year decline (or something worse), even if it was known, trading bubbles like this, is not easy (not advice, not a recommendation).

It might be simple, but it’s not easy.

With the market in chaos, we have the usual suspects out making things complicated; sharpening their pencils, attempting to connect financials with price action.

It always looks good on the surface.

However, as Nissam Talib said in The Black Swan (paraphrasing), he’d rather have a New York street smart, hoodlum reaping a windfall, than a pointy-headed PhD on the sidelines, pontificating about how the strategy’s not consistent with mathematics.

All of which brings us to the truth, price action itself.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

Once again, the trendline has been adjusted based on price action.

The gap lower open from yesterday has been effectively closed during this session (as of 1:50 p.m., EST).

The expectation is for today’s high in the SOXX to hold; meaning, subsequent sessions will not post higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

For a short position, SOXX high of 217.27 (or the high for the day) is a good place for a stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Gap-Down, Market Panic

February 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-04, SOXX

That Makes It Two Times, For The SOXX

Looking at the financial press and their Sunday night-leading-to-Monday, freak-out, one would think aliens just landed like War of The Worlds. 🙂

Of course, it’s only a complete shock to those attempting to link fundamentals and financials to price movement … a never ending and futile task (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, let’s forget about multiples, taxes, and tariffs and look at what the market is actually telling us.

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

Note the ‘Decisive’ Contact point.

During last Friday’s session, price action level (monitored in real time) 220 – 224, was decisively rejected with a swift retreat and lower close for the day.

Anything can happen. However, at this point, the SOXX continues lower and (for now) appears bounded by a trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Hanging by a Thread

February 2, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-04, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Below Support, and Slipping

Does one downside gap, beget another?

The gap-lower open Monday, January 27th, was only retraced by a Fibonacci 23.6%, the next day before continuing lower.

If that percentage holds, it’s a rare occurrence and represents extreme weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart for NVDA, shows we’ve had the largest down-thrust energy in history (NVDA began trading 1/22/99).

Now, it’s hanging below resistance (blue line).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Last Friday closed lower; after-hours, lower, still.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

As the ‘About‘ section says, techniques on this site are laid out by three masters and coached, mentored, by one of, if not the best in the industry (the late David Weis).

With that said, everyone has their own style.

Currently short the sector via SOXS, as SOXS-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. and The Bubble ‘Wrap’

January 31, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXS-25-04, SOXX

Summary of Bubble Action For The Week

For A.I., the SOXX, and Nvidia, the onus is now on the bulls.

The sector managed to retrace 50%, before further upside was rejected during today’s session.

One way to look at this action, if short the sector, today’s high in the SOXX, is an excellent location for a stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

Fibonacci time correlations are shown.

Day 1, the high January 22nd, Day 5, the low on the 28th and today, Day 8 (not shown).

Updating the sidebar:

SOXS-25-03, was closed (yesterday), then re-opened today, as SOXS-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gain on SOXS-25-03, was approximately +16.4%

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279