Fibonacci Week 5
This coming week is Fibonacci ‘Week 5’, from the KMX reversal during the week of 8/28 (labeled as ‘1’ on the chart).
Note the volume last week, increased over 78% from the week prior (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Long Term?
Expedia has so far, failed to sustain a breakout to new highs.
The chart shows several weeks above the resistance line set by highs posted back in early January.
Price action broke below those highs, coming back to test at 38%, a weak retrace (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Contact Points
Price action has verified the existence of the right-side trend line with at least three contact points (not advice, not a recommendation).
Minor pivots posted at Fibonacci intervals.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Break & Breakaway
AutoZone can’t seem to get it together for any kind of bullish move.
In fact, as each week goes by and price action continues to erode lower, the massive 200-plus point gap shown, looks more and more like a ‘breakaway;’ gap (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note the channel lines on a potential trading channel.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Right Way … Wrong Way
Potential false upside breakout moves from a down-channel, have happened before.
Once such occurrence, was here.
Let’s see if the trendline was drawn correctly, or not.
The segment is a closer view of where TSLA left-off last Friday.
If it’s in the channel, watch for a lower open and acceleration lower (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
While CarMax Grinds Higher
Three trading days ago, was this (emphasis added):
‘The higher [CVNA] open was not expected which now, ever so slightly, points bias to the upside.
Three days later, Carvana is now 8.38% higher at the Fibonacci 61.8% projection.
Since we started this series focusing on Fibonacci counts, we’ll continue.
This coming Thursday with Jobless Claims, is a Fibonacci 8-Days from the recent low on the 18th.
It’s also Fibonacci 21-Days from the deeper low on July 30th (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Carvana As Well?
If CarMax continues higher from here, it has a measured move target as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).
That implies Carvana may come along as well.
With that said, even though CVNA closed lower for the day, the session opened higher than yesterday’s close.
‘The higher open was not expected which now, ever so slightly, points bias to the upside.
CVNA was ‘short-traded’ throughout the day and CVNA-26-04, was closed-out with a slight profit.
Caveat Emptor
The breakout in KMX is not all that convincing.
If it falls back into the range, it’s likely an up-thrust (reversal).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The (short) Path
With today’s new daily high, Carvana’s following a Fibonacci sequence, thus far.
Referencing the chart below, we have:
Day 1: Wyckoff up-thrust, penetrating resistance (blue line).
Day 3: Lows, increased volume; ‘sign-of-supply’.
Day 5: Recovery high, testing the underside.
It’s at this point, anything can happen.
For most of today’s session, CVNA remained below the highs, giving doubt to the prior analysis.
It wasn’t until the last ten-minutes of trade, did price action move above yesterday’s high of 71.18.
Carvana CVNA, Daily
As CVNA pushed above that high, a short was opened: CVNA-26-04, with the stop just above today’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
If Carvana manages to push higher, the scenario discussed yesterday, the next resistance level may be more probable.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Probable (gap) Fill
Past performance is no guarantee, but it can tell us what’s probable.
In the case of AutoZone, the last time there was a significant gap lower open, 68-pts, was December 9th, 2025.
The update on January 9th of this year, posed the question, if the gap would be filled.
That gap was indeed filled and brings us to now.
That is, not 68-points, but an eye-watering 201-points.
AutoZone, AZO, Weekly
There are two ways to view the gap:
It’s a ‘breakaway’ gap, implying that AZO is not coming back. Or, it’s a ‘common’ gap, which is typically filled (not advice, not a recommendation).
We’ll throw into the mix, we have an upcoming Fed meeting late this month, link here.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Reversal on Daily
Today’s daily bar for KMX, is a reversal.
On the weekly, at left, we see a well-defined resistance area that so far, is containing any more upward movement (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
