Observing Market Action
CarMax, is posting a series of parallel trading channels with inflection points identified (so far) by a Fibonacci count (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Like Many Others
The last update on KMX, is here.
It said the retrace to 23.6%, was “exceedingly weak”.
We can see proof of that as KMX has reversed near the 23.6% retrace and is now in a downward channel (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Fibonacci 23.6%, Retrace
Looking at CarMax from its all-time highs to now, the retrace to 23.6% (if it holds) is exceedingly weak (not advice, not a recommendation).
The last update on KMX was here, indicating a potential reversal and test.
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Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Fibonacci Week 5
This coming week is Fibonacci ‘Week 5’, from the KMX reversal during the week of 8/28 (labeled as ‘1’ on the chart).
Note the volume last week, increased over 78% from the week prior (not advice, not a recommendation).
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Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Long Term?
Expedia has so far, failed to sustain a breakout to new highs.
The chart shows several weeks above the resistance line set by highs posted back in early January.
Price action broke below those highs, coming back to test at 38%, a weak retrace (not advice, not a recommendation).
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Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Contact Points
Price action has verified the existence of the right-side trend line with at least three contact points (not advice, not a recommendation).
Minor pivots posted at Fibonacci intervals.
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Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Break & Breakaway
AutoZone can’t seem to get it together for any kind of bullish move.
In fact, as each week goes by and price action continues to erode lower, the massive 200-plus point gap shown, looks more and more like a ‘breakaway;’ gap (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note the channel lines on a potential trading channel.
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Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Right Way … Wrong Way
Potential false upside breakout moves from a down-channel, have happened before.
Once such occurrence, was here.
Let’s see if the trendline was drawn correctly, or not.
The segment is a closer view of where TSLA left-off last Friday.
If it’s in the channel, watch for a lower open and acceleration lower (not advice, not a recommendation).
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Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
While CarMax Grinds Higher
Three trading days ago, was this (emphasis added):
‘The higher [CVNA] open was not expected which now, ever so slightly, points bias to the upside.
Three days later, Carvana is now 8.38% higher at the Fibonacci 61.8% projection.
Since we started this series focusing on Fibonacci counts, we’ll continue.
This coming Thursday with Jobless Claims, is a Fibonacci 8-Days from the recent low on the 18th.
It’s also Fibonacci 21-Days from the deeper low on July 30th (not advice, not a recommendation).
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Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Carvana As Well?
If CarMax continues higher from here, it has a measured move target as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).
That implies Carvana may come along as well.
With that said, even though CVNA closed lower for the day, the session opened higher than yesterday’s close.
‘The higher open was not expected which now, ever so slightly, points bias to the upside.
CVNA was ‘short-traded’ throughout the day and CVNA-26-04, was closed-out with a slight profit.
Caveat Emptor
The breakout in KMX is not all that convincing.
If it falls back into the range, it’s likely an up-thrust (reversal).
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts, TC2000
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
