Category Archives: TSLA

Tesla … Reversal Target … $260

March 5, 2023 By in GM, INTC, TSLA

Short Squeeze Continues

Unless we reverse right here and now, Fibonacci retrace and projections (shown below) target the $260 – level for TSLA.

If you know what’s (potentially) coming, you can get ready.

The ‘Ponzi’ case for Tesla has already been established with this prior link, here. Of special note in that link, are the production percentages for General Motors.

Didn’t we just see another ’66’, at this link?

With all of that, let’s go out on a limb and project TSLA might top at 266, instead of the Fibonacci projected 260 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tesla TSLA, Daily

The daily chart is compressed to show the entire down-wave and retrace from the November 4th, 2021, high.

Three retrace levels are shown (magenta); first is 23.6%, then 38.2% and labeled retrace of 50%, near the 259-level.

Moving closer-in, and including Fibonacci wave projection, while keeping the retrace levels, yields the following.

The chart’s a little bit busy but one gets the idea.

There’s a Fibonacci overlap of retrace and projection near the 259-260, level.

What’s another 6-points between friends to get to 266?

Next Steps

Of course, anything can happen and TSLA, could reverse to the downside on Monday.

However, if it continues higher, we’ll be monitoring for potential confirmation of the target and subsequent reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … After The Reversal

February 25, 2023 By in DRV, Economic Ninja, I Allegedly, IYR, Jerimiah Babe, Real Estate, SRS, TSLA

Trading, In The Cannel

Real estate reversed at Fibonacci Week 34, on schedule, as identified in this update.

Since then, it’s been three weeks of closing lower.

‘Boots on the ground’, have been done by numerous YouTubers such as Jerrimiah Babe, Economic Ninja, Dan from i-Allegedly, and others.

Real estate from a fundamental standpoint is in free-fall (not advice, not a recommendation).

Supporting data can be found at this link; time stamp 3:10 and 5:25, specifically for real estate.

From the realm of ‘You can’t make this stuff up’, go to time stamp 7:25, in the above link and look at the price of Telsa.

However, let’s not wander too far off and get back to the ‘implosion du jour’, real estate. 🙂

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

If this channel is in-effect, meaning the ‘demand’ side is a long way down, the trading potential is enormous (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, let’s look at the daily chart and potential Put option trade.

Real Estate IYR, Daily (Close)

The market itself, the weekly above, has shown us it’s following a Fibonacci sequence … for now.

Getting down to the daily, on a close basis, we’re presenting one of an infinite number of potential moves.

It’s the upward move (if it happens) to test the channel line that’s the spot to watch.

During such a rebound, short dated put options would be decreasing in price significantly.

According to the economic calander, next Friday March 3rd, will have Fed representatives speaking at 11:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m., EST.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla Top, and Fibonacci

February 11, 2023 By in GM, Positions, TSLA 2 Comments

Options Day-Trade, Nets … 170%

It’s no secret that Tesla’s a Ponzi scheme mania.

Its current market capitalization is over ten-times that of General Motors (GM); a company that’s been in business, since 1908.

GM’s auto production numbers for 2022, were 66% higher (imagine that), than Tesla’s 1.37-million; provided, that we actually believe any of the data. 🙂

If we take Tesla’s market cap as of Friday’s close (654.7bln) and divide it by the closing price of 196.89, we get 3.33.

You can’t make this stuff up.

The TSLA market has ultra-high liquidity and is highly emotional (like the gold market). That liquidity lends itself to Fibonacci-based analysis.

We’ll get to the analysis but first, the options trade.

Tesla TSLA, Option Trade: 3-minute Chart

We’re trading the day of expiration 2/10, and the value is decaying rapidly. The entry of 0.50 was about where the option closed on the prior session.

Note, the entry was made on the way up … extremely difficult to stomach selling short, on an expiring position, as the price is rising.

Option was closed when it was obvious there was no more downside for the day. Since it was a 195.0 Put, it expired worthless at the end of the session.

Now, on to Fibonacci.

Tesla TSLA, Daily, with Fibonacci Projection(s)

The chart shows how precise the moves have conformed to Fibonacci.

We’ve included the “3.33”, as mentioned above; it will be interesting to see what happens at the next open.

After-hours activity was down – 2.31 pts, on 2,486,196 shares, according to BigCharts.

Depending on subsequent price action, the next update will address the Fibonacci downside projections.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


Tesla … At The Top

February 10, 2023 By in TSLA

Terminating Wedge

Technically, the short-covering rally appears to be over.

Shown below, there was a minor wedge formed over the past two weeks that has been met with a measured move.

Pre-market action (9:10 a.m., EST) is lower; currently trading below yesterday’s low of TSLA 204.77.

We’ll get to that but first, a look at the forecast created back in November, last year.

Tesla TSLA, Weekly: November Forecast

Here is the link to the original post.

In that post, note there were two potential outcomes for price action. The charts below show that “Chart 2“, was the course chosen by TSLA.

Original Forecast

And … the result

Let’s move on to the daily and show the terminating wedge.

Tesla TSLA, Daily

It’s important to note that TSLA’s previous decline was ‘well behaved’. That means, it was orderly with few if any significant price gaps.

On the next move down, if it occurs, ‘well-behaved’ is not what comes to mind.

Notice on the short covering rally how there were at least three price-gaps higher … the last of which may be filled at the open today.

Summary & Strategy

We’re in the largest bear market in world history.

There is no sure way to ‘predict’ what will happen next (not advice, not a recommendation).

What can be done, is to identify probabilities.

At this juncture, TSLA appears to have completed its short-covering rally.

It’s now up to the trader/speculator to either stand-aside, or to enter the arena.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

November 13, 2022 By in Biotech, Crypto, CVNA, GDXJ, GLD, Gold Miners, Goldman, HOOD, J.P. Morgan, JDST, JDST-22-05, LABD, LABD-22-10, Michael Cowan, Positions, SPBIO, TSLA, Wyckoff, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

What To Watch … Crypto Collapse, Biotech, Gold, Telsa

JPMorgan … says sell

Goldman … says buy.

Wyckoff says … Don’t listen to either.

In fact, Wyckoff’s stock market training course, first published in 1934, (still available), says that until you can ignore the financial press completely, ‘You will never be successful in the markets’.

Price action itself, properly interpreted, will tell you where to look for the opportunity.

The Ponzi Implosion, Cometh

The market is littered with Ponzi schemes. Some have already imploded, CVNA, HOOD, Crypto; some have not.

Concerning Crypto, here’s an excellent update from Michael Cowan. Buried in that update, at time stamp 4:58, looks like HOOD, may be in even more trouble.

Biotech is in a class of its own and was discussed in yesterday’s update.

For gold, we’re going to look at the Junior Miners GDXJ, and last week’s action.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Close

The Junior’s are the weakest in the sector; therefore, that’s where we look for a short opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

To move higher, above resistance, normal market behavior, is to come back to the lower blue line (i.e., support) to gain enough energy to move higher for a breakout.

To move lower, normal market behavior, is to come down to the lower blue line as a test which subsequently fails; the move continues lower.

Either way, normal behavior at this juncture, is to move lower. We’ll see.

Now on to the chief cook and bottle washer … Tesla.

Tesla (TSLA), At The Edge

For starters, let’s recognize there’re a lot of moving parts; U.S. ‘parts’ and China ‘parts’.

If one’s going short, another task is to forecast under what conditions a short would have enough risk removed.

For that answer, oddly enough, we go to gold, GLD.

Gold GLD, Weekly: 2015 – 2017

GLD posted a massive upthrust above the blue line lasting over fourteen weeks before breaking decisively lower.

Then, it labored four weeks to come back up for a test.

After that, collapse; lower weekly closes for seven consecutive weeks.

In the chart above, the area identified as ‘Short’, has as much upside risk removed as possible, right at resistance.

Now on to Tesla.

Tesla TLSA, Weekly

Two scenarios are presented where risk may be reduced.

Chart 1

Chart 2

One of these may happen or neither of them.

Either way, for risk to be reduced, a short entry is needed to be at a known resistance level (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s move on to the current positioning.

Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).

One of three events will happen at the next session.

1: Both positions stopped out

2: One position stopped out

3: No positions stopped out

Each outcome will provide a data-point where to focus (or not) in the current environment.

LABD-22-10:

Entry @ 18.1398: Stop @ 16.83

JDST-22-05

Entry @ 9.1666: Stop @ 8.79

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘No One In Control … ‘

November 8, 2022 By in LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, TSLA, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Um, Yes There Is …

The latest from ZeroHedge is, ‘there’s no one in control.’

The latest from Wyckoff analysis is, ‘price action’s in control’, if you know where to look. 🙂

This week’s watch-list was laid out two days ago, here and so far, all topics discussed, are preforming as expected.

For this update (30-minutes before open) we’re going to focus on Tesla (TSLA).

Tesla, TSLA, Daily

There’s a lot going on.

We’re not in the ‘free-fall’ zone yet, but it’s getting close.

Downside volume has increased significantly.

The channel is being confirmed but we’re nearing support in the 188.00 – area (not shown).

Remember, when price action declines below known support levels, depending on the depth of penetration, we could be in Wyckoff spring position.

There could be an upside response to the break below current support located at approx. 198 – 200.

Summary

Q: Is TLSA, a short?

A: That’s at the trader’s discretion (not advice, not a recommendation).

My firm’s accounts do not have a position in TSLA … and if/when they do, it would likely be small.

It’s true the EV hysteria is a bubble. Supply chain collpase will make sure of that.

However, it does not even compare to the ‘elephant’, and we all know what that is.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65, 22.16*** Stop @ 20.21***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

November 6, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Food Supply, GDX, Genesis 41, GLD, GOLD, Green Energy, ice-age-farmer, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-22-09, Positions, Prechter, QQQ, Real Estate, Russell 2000, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, The Speck, TSLA, XLF, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

What To Watch … Biotech, Gold, Real Estate, Tesla

Biotech:

There’re a lot of moving parts to biotech and it’s like a game of chicken.

Is there going to be another ‘planned’ event pulled out of the bag that requires ‘protection’ or will this side (and this one) win-out before that happens?

Price action’s always the final arbiter and right now, it’s positing lower.

Gold:

Gold (GLD) ‘blipped’ higher on Friday and the usual suspects are out touting the hyperinflation narrative.

Owning (some) precious metals seems to be a good thing.

However, the public constantly knee-jerks into this sector and is absolutely rabid in their behavior (i.e., silver stockpiles are running out!!!).

It suggests at least, there’s something else afoot.

Prechter published in the early 2000’s, Central Banks, are followers, not leaders. The fact they are buying gold at this point, may be a contrary indicator.

Talk about going against the herd. 🙂

Over and again, it’s the boring (does not generate ‘clicks’) food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate:

What can be said?

It’s the largest manufactured bubble in world history and it has already popped.

Thinking it’s all going to sort itself out in a year or two is delusional. We’ve probably got decades of bear market.

Tesla:

Anyone with an anode of research capability, knows the whole EV premise, is based on a falsehood.

However, that fact is probably not what’s going to bring Tesla (and the rest of the market) down.

Let’s stop for a moment and consider the above link which has been available for nearly four-years.

How many views? Just 9,824 (as of this post)

That equates to only 0.003% of the U.S. population.

As the global supply chains implode, getting parts and having stable infrastructure (i.e., electricity) will probably be the defining factor.

Now, on to the charts.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

The following sessions will let us know if we’re at the right edge of the downtrend line.

We’ve already had an up-thrust reversal and a test of that reversal. last Friday was lower … probabilities point down.

Gold GLD, Daily

Looking at the chart on the strategic, longer term, Friday’s blip is hardly noticeable. We’ve already presented how this could be a minor up-thrust (reversal) in itself.

To keep the upside intact, price action must remain and continue above current levels.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Real estate may be working its way into an up-thrust condition. As shown, Fibonacci Day 21 from the October 13th, low is this coming Thursday, the 10th.

According to the Economic Calendar there are several potential catalysts that may push the price above resistance (temporarily).

Tesla TSLA, Weekly

The short-term look has been presented here.

Longer term downside potential is disconcerting.

Major support near the 25-level.

Summary

When we look at last Friday’s action (table below), it’s clear SPBIO, was not part of the upside party.

Of course, we won’t know if it’s’ the downside leader until subsequent sessions.

In the meantime, the market positioning remains unchanged.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

LABD-22-09:

Special Note:

This sector and leveraged inverse LABD are highly volatile. Character of the market can change at any time.

LABD may be exited without notice.

Entry @ 19.88, 19.71, 21.23, 21.65 Stop @ 19.41

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla’s Rally … In Trouble

November 5, 2022 By in Bonds, TLT, TSLA 1 Comment

‘Bag Holders’

Remember, Musk, cashed-out, long ago.

What’s left are bag holders; that ‘bag’ may be about to head south, in a hurry.

The last update on Tesla, link here, had this to say about a potential rally:

“If bonds rally, the rest of the market may also rally; that could include our chief cook and bottle washer, Tesla.”

So far, the bond rally has not materialized; TSLA’s spring set-up (i.e., rally), looks like it’s failing.

We’ve already presented that TLSA’s in a distribution phase and has been for nearly a year, link here.

Tesla (TSLA), Daily

Price action’s in a trading channel Fibonacci 13-Days wide; from lowest (channel contact) print to highest print.

Note that Friday’s bar was wide, with increasing volume; 74.6%, higher, than the previous session.

Summary

As noted in the prior update, TSLA printed an outside-up, on the weekly two successive weeks.

“Price action bounced at support and penetrated it several times before printing outside-up on the weekly (twice).”

Such prints are also called ‘key reversals’. Each time, that reversal has been negated.

Price action itself, tells us the TLSA rally, is failing.

The ‘distribution’ may be complete, with a ‘mark-down’ phase about to start.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

October 30, 2022 By in Bonds, David Weis, GLD, GOLD, IYR, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TLT, TSLA, Wyckoff 3 Comments

What To Watch … Bonds, Gold, Real Estate, Tesla

Bonds:

Last Friday, the bond reversal posted a shallow retrace.

We’re looking for upside follow-through at the next session.

Gold:

If gold (GLD) closes below 154.67, on Monday, it will be seven consecutive down months.

Momentum has slowed to a potential inflection point.

Real Estate:

If bonds move higher, real estate may follow. We have potential targets and Fibonacci timeframes.

Tesla:

This update, said to watch if/when TLSA, broke below support.

It did just that during the following week but now, it’s hesitating.

As a result, we have a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

Now, on to the charts.

Long Bond TLT, 30-minute

We’re drilling down to the 30-minute.

The blue line is Fibonacci 23.6%. Price action (at this point) shows the beginning of a move higher from that level.

Moving decisively higher at the next session, puts the terminating wedge into play, shown here.

If we get a wedge breakout, then we have a measured move target in the vicinity of TLT, 115.00.

Gold (GLD) Weekly Chart

A close below 154.67, on Monday, would put GLD, at seven consecutive down months.

GLD, has never closed lower seven consecutive months; not since inception, on 11/18/04.

Gold remains in a down-channel that’s a Fibonacci 13-Weeks wide.

Last week’s move helped to re-confirm the channel.

That action is itself, a Fibonacci 34-Weeks from the ‘changing of hands‘ high, during week-ending, 3/11/22.

However, momentum of price action has slowed.

If there’s going to be a break to the upside, this would be the place; otherwise, watch for continued GLD downside.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

If bonds continue their upside reversal with rates lower, we can expect real estate IYR, to have some type of ‘dead cat’ bounce.

If so, how long and how high.

An infinite number of scenarios are possible. However, the chart of IYR, shows what to expect for two of those possibilities.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

The uptrend (blue line) has been decisively broken. What has not yet happened, is a ‘test’ of that break.

Shown are potential tests; Week 8 (from 10/14/22, lows), at Fibonacci 38%, and Week 13, at 50%.

Between ‘Week 8’ and ‘Week 13’, is the December Fed meeting … a possible catalyst.

Tesla (TSLA) Weekly

This one seems a bit far-fetched but here it is, anyway.

If bonds rally, the rest of the market may also rally; that could include our chief cook and bottle washer, Tesla.

Price action bounced at support and penetrated it several times before printing outside-up on the weekly (twice).

By definition, it’s a Wyckoff spring set-up.

A spring tends to go straight into an up-thrust; a repeating pattern, shown on the chart at around TSLA, 315.

Set-ups can also fail … so, we’ll be watching this one closely.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

October 16, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Basic Materials, Bonds, David Weis, DJUSBM, Gold & Silver, IYM, IYR, J.P. Morgan, LABD, LABD-22-08, Michael Cowan, Positions, SLV, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Survival Lilly, TLT, TMF, TSLA, Van Metre, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 4 Comments

What To Watch

First off, it’s nice to know, traders at J.P. Morgan, don’t have clue as what to do.

They say it themselves; Not One Person

On top of that, I’m supposed to pay money reading about how clueless they are. 🙂

No thanks. Let’s see if we can do better than the average ‘investment firm’.

Before we get started, a reminder; as Michael Cowen says:

‘It’s the bear market that reveals those who really understand’, not the bull market ‘geniuses‘.

With that, let’s get into it; first up, is silver.

Silver: Wyckoff Analysis Results

The downside reversal was identified to the day.

Adding to that post, Europeans could not only be freezing or starving this winter, but also subject to radiation poisoning.

Surely, they’re all thinking that ‘stack’ of silver is going to save them.

Silver (along with gold) remain trending lower.

Silver (SLV) is currently at support levels; therefore, some upward action (staying below SLV: 18.5) is normal behavior.

Bonds: Are They Ready?

Hold your nose … bonds could be setting up for a rally.

As Steven Van Metre reports here, the Fed ‘shenanigan’ meter is pegged.

Bonds, TLT Weekly

Note, the bullish TLT, set-up is not confirmed until MACD ticks higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Also note the repeating pattern of ‘spring to up-thrust‘.

Last up, biotech

Biotech SPBIO, Hourly (Inverted)

We’re going to use the chart from yesterday’s post to set the stage for getting closer-in.

This past Friday’s early morning ‘spike’ is barely visible; the 30-minute (inverted) chart below, has more detail.

SPBIO, 30-minute (Inverted)

Price action rejected the lower levels (higher on SPBIO) and pulled away throughout the session. That ‘pulling away’ continued on, all the way into the close.

That’s a clue there may be follow-through at the next session.

If the early session opens ‘gap-higher’ (SPBIO, lower), into the resistance area (four magenta arrows, hourly chart), it would be the fourth time pressuring at this area; markets rarely hold a fourth attempt.

Summary

Of course, other markets are being watched like real estate (IYR), Tesla (TSLA), and even Basic Materials (DJUSBM), a potential sleeper for significant downside.

Updates are planned if/when low risk shows up.

Positions: Current Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

The following is the positioning of my firm’s main (largest) account.

LABD-22-08:

LABD Entry @ 25.1278, 24.735, 26.025, 22.99, 22.29***, Stop is @ LABD 21.23***

***, Indicates change

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279