Pre-Market Prep
Walmart posted all-time highs last December 15th,
The bounce off support has been weak.
Waste Management (WM) is in a wedge formation (chart not shown).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Trading Below Support
Carvana spent three days hovering above support.
Yesterday, trading started above support, then, ended below.
Adding to that, price action was down on double volume from the prior session.
Volume study is part of Wyckoff analysis. It typically does not get attention as it’s boring, generating no ‘clicks’.
The increase in volume suggested pressure’s building to the downside.
Based on that, a (small) short was opened yesterday (not advice, not a recommendation).
Carvana CVNA, Daily
Short position is being maintained; stop to be moved at the end of this session to the day’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Other Markets
From the ‘notes’ discussion on yesterday’s post, the WMT position was stopped out (at essentially break-even) early this session (not advice, not a recommendation).
Price action looks like a secondary test of the reversal.
However, from a preference standpoint, the focus is on CVNA … and the SOXX.
More on that later.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Watch The Volume
The last update on Walmart (WMT) had this:
Will we get an upside test, even if only briefly?
Watching price action early this session, it looks like that test is happening now (not advice, not a recommendation).
From a Wyckoff (and David Weis) perspective, what we’re looking for if WMT, keeps rising or holds steady, is volume to contract on the day.
Contracting volume indicates a test of the up-thrust (reversal) and helps to add probability to the downside.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Heavy Down Volume
Looking at the big-cap discount stores, only Walmart has made a recent new high.
Costco, COST, with half the market-cap of WMT, posted all-time highs back in February, this year.
Next up, Target TGT, a real dog, with all-time highs way back in November of 2021.
Walmart WMT, Daily
All-time high as Bank of America raises price targets because of, what else, Artificial Intelligence, link here.
Yesterday, Friday, posted a new daily low and was Fibonacci Day 3, from the reversal.
Will we get an upside test, even if only briefly?
If we do, and depending on price action, it’s likely to help narrow the risk on a potential short position (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Inflection Point?
Walmart doesn’t have far to go in either direction, to define the next move.
Before getting started, let’s go back to comments made about WMT from September 4th, on this post:
“WMT, just might continue to grind higher to post above the 103-area to take out stops … maybe.“
Of course, it was a ‘maybe’; we’re dealing with probabilities.
With that said, the ‘maybe’ happened.
Walmart WMT, Daily
At the far left of the chart is WMT’s all-time high.
Next, we have a lower high on August 8th.; now, we’re in ‘up-thrust’ position.
Data coming in, here and here, indicates the market(s) may be at an inflection point, minor, or potentially, major.
The second link is especially well-done; it methodically steps through the mechanics of a potential high.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Fibonacci Week 144, Holding … For Now
It’s early in the session; NVDA, has posted a new daily low, adding weight to potential reversal, at Week 144.
The SOXX, also printed a new daily low.
Repositioned short (again), with stop to be the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Charts to follow.
Other Markets
DAL-25-02, printed a new daily high (exit signal). Trade closed at break-even (not advice, not a recommendation).
WMT-25-04, stop, moved down to 95.54 (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Straight Up, to Resistance
Delta’s latest earnings release provided an excellent opportunity for a ‘changing of hands’.
We’ll have to see what happens next, to verify that premise (not advice, not a recommendation).
In a scene that could be straight out of Livermore and Wyckoff’s observations, the big players need huge volume to enter or exit positions.
For Delta, that volume event was (potentially) last Thursday.
Delta DAL, Daily
Stright up to resistance on massive volume.
Then, the next day, a lower close.
There’s a lot going on in this chart.
As noted, we’re at the 61.8%, retrace of the entire move; January 22nd, highs, to ‘tariff panic’, April 4th, lows.
The initial wave from highs-to-lows, was ‘impulsive’.
Then, and a-b-c, ‘corrective’ wave (labeling not shown), to where we are now.
All of which, brings us to ‘positioning’
Positions
As noted, short this sector as trade DAL-25-02; stop, just above Thursday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Other Markets
Discretionary exit on SOXX short, SOXX-25-04, at break-even (not advice, not a recommendation).
Maintaining Wal-Mart short, WMT-25-04, with stop lowered to 96.78 (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Contrary Indicator(s)
Part of the wedge ‘Throw-Over’ as we’ll see in the chart, may have been in response to this, link here.
With the ‘all clear’ going out to millions of ‘investors’, what could go wrong?
Looking at it from a strictly Wyckoff, and chart pattern perspective (a la Richie Nasso), probabilities favor a reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily Close
Price action has entered back into the pattern.
Positioning
No active positions in CRWD … yet.
After yesterday’s trend-break (into the pattern), there’s a possibility for a rally to test.
Other Markets
SOXX short, was re-opened as SOXX-25-04, with stop at yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Wal-Mart short, WMT-25-04, remains active, with stop being moved down to (near) the last session high of 96.91 (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Thrust Apex?
From the April 7th lows, to now, each successive move higher in the SOXX, has traveled less net distance.
In Wyckoff terms, this type of market behavior occurs near the end of a move (not advice, not a recommendation).
Let’s not forget the up-thrust condition, still in effect, discussed here.
Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close
In a related analysis, the last post on Nvidia had it at Fibonacci Week 144 (-1).
Now, a week later, Nvidia is in Fibonacci Week 144 (from October 2022, lows), posting all-time highs.
Positioning
Short the SOXX, as trade SOXX-25-03, with stop just above the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: This could be a very short-lived trade as SOXX, is trading higher in the pre-market (as of 8:35 a.m., EST).
Separately, the stop on short trade WMT-25-04, has been moved down to just above its session high at 97.31 (not advice, not a recommendation).
If WMT, posts a new daily high, it’s likely to test the trend break; we’ll stand on the sidelines if/when, that happens.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Follow, the Set-Up
Is it possible that Wal-Mart, one of the laggards of the market, for years if not decades, could all-of-a-sudden, become exciting?
Exciting that is, to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
As the tagline above says, ‘Follow, the Set-Up’.
Well, here it is.
Wal-Mart WMT, Daily Close
It’s important to note: Unlike the rest of the indices, the S&P, the Qs, the Dow, WMT, is well below its all-time highs.
Yesterday, was a potential trend break. Today, may be continuation, or test of that break.
Positioning
Short as trade WMT-25-04, with stop at yesterday’s high, WMT 99.17 (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The Danger Point® 