Nothing To See Here …
The financial media says, ‘It’s just a technical (profit taking) sell-off’.
Nothing to see here. 🙂
However, the chart says it’s a potential terminating wedge and we’re right at the lower boundary (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
While The Narrative Unravels
Yesterday’s update on CrowdStrike, said that Fridays were typically biased to the upside.
Well, that’s what happened and a bit more than expected.
A.I. Narrative Blow-Out
Before getting to the chart, a reminder the A.I. narrative’s unraveling in real-time, big time, links here, and here (not advice, not a recommendation).
The chart shows going vertical into the close of the day.
Note the resistance zone.
CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily
As shown, volume and Force Index contract as price action rises into the resistance area.
We’re now on to the weekend.
One has to wonder, what A.I. implosion will happen next.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Now, In Position
The last update on CRWD, was here.
Comments to posts in general, may provide more clarity.
From back March, we had this:
“Now, with all of that said, for me to enter short, I’m looking for something very specific. I’m looking for a certain kind of price action behavior at, or above the resistance area noted.
An up-thrust (in this case) or a spring has a unique kind of movement when watching in real time. Sort of a ‘last gasp’ type of action.
So far, I’ve not seen that in CRWD.”
Fast-forward to now.
Price action penetrated resistance on news, link here.
The important part, is what comes next.
As of today, we’re at 53-Days from the February 23rd lows; well within margin at this time scale for a ‘Day 55’ top (not advice, not a recommendation).
Fridays are typically biased to the upside. Let’s see what happens next.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
They Sell … Wall Street Buys
The earnings release tells an interesting story, link here.
After all’s said-and-done, CRWD still has a negative P/E.
Analysists are optimistic, while the insiders sell millions-worth (not advice, not a recommendation).
A push above resistance (blue line), puts CRWD in Wyckoff Up-Thrust position.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Earnings, late February, early March
Earning release for CVNA, CRWD, and CDNS, are scheduled here, here and here.
All three charts are in the same, or similar position.
Q: Anyone know?
A: Recently penetrated support or are testing that penetration.
Technically speaking, they’re all in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position (not advice, not a recommendation).
Chart analysis to follow.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
‘Normal’ Market Behavior
The last update on CrowdStrike, was here.
Now that we got the break, the question for the next few trading sessions, is whether or not we’ll have a test (not advice not a recommendation).
Mentor Moment
Mark Douglas discusses changing one’s expectations to align with the market, link here.
With that in mind, here’s how Goldman Sachs plans to align themselves with the market, link here.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Ignored, by ‘Mr. Big’
The latest out from ZeroHedge, says that Michael Burry (a.k.a., The Big Short), while claiming Tesla is overvalued (current P/E, 271), does not have a short position.
Adding to the ‘overvaluation’ theme, is deterioration in sales that’s now entering its second year; here and here. Yet, TSLA just made all-time highs this past December 22nd.
In a nutshell, this is the problem with ‘fundamentals’.
Meaning, as far as assessing price action probability, they’re not useful and never have been (not advice, not a recommendation).
A good example of that premise is CrowdStrike (CRWD); with its current P/E, at minus 428. That’s a negative.
When their P/E, is positive, which is not often, we get numbers like 786; yet, the closing price (yesterday) for CRWD was 468.76, with a market cap of 119.4 billion.
How does that even work?
Possibly more entertaining from the ZeroHedge link, are the comments. All kinds of reasons not to short Tesla.
Tesla TSA, Daily
What do you see?
TSLA printed an all-time high on an attempted breakout that has so far, fallen below resistance.
On the sell side, is of course, to short TSLA directly.
Not wanting to be completely exposed to any untoward action, one can short Consumer Discretionary XLY, and effectively short AMZN as well (not advice, not a recommendation).
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Almost There …
The last update on CRWD, is linked here.
Today’s action continued the upside test, but the momentum has slowed (not advice, not a recommendation).
The next earnings release is scheduled for early March, link here.
While (nearly) all eyes are focused on the A.I., and precious metals blow-out, elsewhere in the market, sectors appear to be stagnant or breaking lower.
One area is transportation and rail freight.
We’ll analyze that soon.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Similar to Caterpillar
Our favorite chief, cook, and bottle washer of the negative P/E, currently standing at -379, is about the same as the last update.
The difference from then, is that price action has got itself into a potential test of a wedge breakdown.
Ever since the ‘update glitch‘ wipeout, it’s never been the same for CRWD.
CrowdStrike CRWD, Daily Close
Yesterday’s action closed higher. So far today, trading is continuing the move.
It’s important to note that volume is not remarkable; meaning, the last high-volume day was at the earnings release on December 2nd, and 3rd.
Unlike CAT, in the prior update, we don’t have a decisive indicator (volume) for a trend break (not advice, not a recommendation).
It’s as if CRWD, is banging around (with low volume), trying to find a direction.
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Wild Swings
Depending on which data platform is used, CrowdStrike’s P/E, is anywhere from -378.81, to -424.69.
That’s a negative P/E.
‘Not to worry’, as the Brits would say, CrowdStrike’s P/E has also been positive.
How about +786.1, in January of 2024, link here.
Let’s throw in Book Value of 15.03, and we have an outfit trading at 3,288% over its liquidation value.
On top of that, don’t forget the update ‘glitch’ costing customers over $5 Billion in losses, here and here.
Going on to add some intrigue, we’re coming up on the earnings release this Tuesday, after the bell.
What could possibly go wrong? 🙂
CrowdStrike CRWD, Weekly
It’s a familiar theme. One (potential) terminating wedge after another.
So far, we’ve covered CVNA, EBAY, and EXPE, in similar positions (not advice not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
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The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
The Danger Point® 