Category Archives: XLF-25-06

Biotech … It’s Not a Bull Market

August 27, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Financial Sector, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI, XBI-25-03, XLF, XLF-25-06

The Big Picture

Each market session provides another data point, bull, bear, or congestion.

Yesterday’s position in XLF, was stopped out the same day with a minuscule loss.

That trade was an excellent example of operating at the market’s edge and maintaining discipline.

Another data point.

However, one market not making new highs, or threatening the current short position (yet), was biotech, XBI; short trade XBI-25-03.

So, let’s take a look at what’s really going on.

Biotech Sector SPBIO, Daily Close

We’re far away from all-time highs.

The Fibonacci retracements are shown.

At this point, we’re oscillating around the 23.6%, and in up-thrust condition.

The second chart zooms-in on the set-up.

Set-ups don’t guarantee anything.

They just mean the market has reached a point where risk could be at a minimum.

Bull or Bear

With the SPBIO (XBI as the proxy), we either have a breakout above resistance or an up-thrust as previously mentioned.

Until the market proves otherwise by making new daily highs, the condition continues to be traded as a potential (significant) downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financials … Feeling Puny

August 26, 2025 By in David Weis, Financial Sector, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-06 1 Comment

At The Edge

The last update on Financial Sector, XLF, said it was in potential up-thrust (false breakout) condition.

Monday’s action was slightly down and today; we have a new daily low.

In addition, as we’ll see in the chart, all of this action is taking place below established resistance.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

We’re at the ‘edge of the lake’, as David Weis used to call it. This is where the risk of being wrong is least.

Since the market’s posted a new daily low, risk on a short position is well defined, i.e. yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Currently short this sector as XLF-25-06, with stop in the vicinity of XLF 53.58. After the close of this session, the stop (if not exceeded) will be moved lower to the high of today’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279