Ahead of The Pack … China

Wyckoff Analysis, Nails It

The last report on China, FXI, stated we’re in a Wyckoff set-up that was about to be tested.

More specifically, it said the leveraged inverse fund YANG, was in ‘spring’ position; ‘spring’ is opposite of up-thrust, because we’re looking at shorting the FXI, via inverse fund YANG.

Back then, two charts were provided with the most probable outcome of the set-up. One showed a ‘pass’ of the test and one showed ‘fail’.

Well, it’s obvious now; pass it is.

The original hourly chart is repeated below with the current chart (ninety minutes into the session) following.

Leveraged FXI Inverse YANG, Hourly

Prior to the ‘test’.

And now … ninety minutes into the session:

Back in the day, over a century ago, Wyckoff wrote that ‘somebody always knows something’ and that ‘something’ shows up on the tape.

What we in the Proletariat didn’t know last week, was this week, would bring us this report from ZeroHedge.

The important part is that Wyckoff analysis allowed one to see what was happening (on the tape) and position ahead of time (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

The prior report on FXI contained the following:

“Risk on a position short FXI via YANG (not advice, not a recommendation) can be reduced by allowing YANG price action to retrace as much of the opening gap as possible.”

That’s exactly what was done with an entry made near the lows of the day.

For the haters (if any), here’s a reproduction of the entry exactly as it appears in the trade account:

Check for yourself if you like, that YANG was at 10.95, right around 10:51, a.m. EST.

The low of the day occurred several minutes later at YANG 10.90. The stop is set just below that low @ 10.89 (not advice, not a recommendation).

The trade’s identified as TDA-YANG-22-01. The ‘TDA’ references that a separate account (TDA Ameritrade) is being used for this position.

Hopefully, that’s enough ‘transparency’ and we can move on.

The Wyckoff Edge

Properly done (without being skewed by personal bias), there’s nothing else needed other than Wyckoff analysis.

It’s important of course, to understand the context of our (global) environment such as ‘everything’s going according to plan’ but allowing the mainstream to influence the analysis, other than providing a contrarian view, is an absolute waste of time.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The China Set-Up … Short FXI

From One High Probability, To Another

The last update’s high probability set-up was negated at the next session … only to morph into another high probability.

We’ll go straight to the FXI, leveraged inverse fund YANG.

FXI, Leveraged Inverse YANG, Hourly

It’s about twenty minutes after the open and YANG is trading at around, 11.15 – 11.16.

The chart below shows a Wyckoff spring set-up in progress.

What’s missing at this point, what’s to be expected during this session or next, is the test.

That same hourly chart is marked up below to show how that test may look with a pass or fail.

Risk on a position short FXI via YANG (not advice, not a recommendation) can be reduced by allowing YANG price action to retrace as much of the opening gap as possible.

It’s Friday and we’re heading into the weekend.

Does anyone really want to be positioned long? 🙂

It’s not as if anything bad is happening.

Nothing like British Members of Parliament (and the Prime Minister) turning in their resignations … all staged but that’s a whole other story.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Eyes On China … FXI

Textbook (YANG) FXI, Short Entry

If the trade’s falling apart, get out.

That’s the admonition from Dr. Alexander Elder in his book ‘Come Into My Trading Room‘.

And so it was. Short position in real estate, closed out.

Even with all the analysis, real estate (IYR) has pushed higher. The short position via SRS (SRS-22-01) was exited just below the stop @ SRS 16.33.

Exiting a trade, frees the mind to look elsewhere for opportunity.

Typically, one would have to wait days or even a week or so for something else to be available.

However, despite appearances, the market is moving very fast at this juncture.

Looking around in those markets, we have a textbook entry signal (to go short) the FXI (not advice, not a recommendation).

David Weis & The Video

Many times, on this site (actually, for years), the Weis video has been recommended.

Next to Wyckoff’s treatise from 1910, Studies In Tape Reading, that video is probably the most important one could ever watch concerning the markets.

In it, he describes a ‘trick’ as he calls it, to get aboard a market that’s already underway. At the time, his discussion was using DE (if memory serves), as the trading vehicle.

That ‘trick’ is highlighted below on FXI

China Index FXI, Daily

This is how the chart looks early in today’s session.

Next, we’re going to invert the chart to mimic what’s seen on leveraged inverse fund YANG.

And now, the signal zoomed-in

The above price action is nearly exactly as presented in the Weis video; even though it was recorded fifteen-years ago.

The above signal is not a guarantee.

It is, however, a high probability low risk set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

The entry signal was triggered at approximately YANG 11.75, with a stop at YANG 11.02, for a ‘risk’ of 0.73/share (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary

As this post is being created, YANG is retracing and is currently trading near 11.67, narrowing the distance from any potential entry to the stop.

On a very long term (Monthly) basis, there are interesting things happening in FXI. We’ll be covering that soon in another update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Active: YANG (YANG-22-02), entry @ 11.83, with stop @ 11.30

Bulls in Danger … FXI

Deep Kimchi Ahead ?

Even before the exit could be made in YANG, the FXI reverses this morning’s marginal highs and heads lower.

The chart below is an update of prior analysis (at this link) showing upward progress, in percent.

Less net travel with each thrust.

FXI, Daily Chart

As this post is being created, FXI price action continues to erode … signs of exhausted bulls.

FXI can’t seem to get out of its current trading range.

Each attempt fails (with less energy than before) and price action falls back into the range.

Maintaining short via YANG, YANG-22-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary

At this juncture, it’s still early in the session and price action could reverse higher.

However, it’s obvious now, barring some kind of catalyst, the area above FXI, 33.70 – 33.80, presents significant resistance.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

How to Handle a ‘Gut Check’

Pre-Market FXI, Shows Sharply Higher Open

The daily chart of FXI below has pre-market action as the blue line.

Currently, we’re sharply higher but still below the March 30th, high.

FXI, Daily Chart

The next chart shows the March 29th, recovery high.

For the market to continue a next leg higher, obviously, it needs to penetrate that high.

Inverse (YANG) Fund Tracking Errors

At this juncture, about 30-minutes before the open, YANG is trading at 14.01 – 14.09, slightly below the 14.16, stop.

Even though FXI is not above the March 30th high (used to locate the YANG stop), the inverse fund is trading slightly below that stop level.

This is the tracking error that’s common with every leveraged inverse fund.

Trading Action

We’re either in a ‘gut check’ upward move in FXI, before reversing to lower lows, or it’s the start of a next leg up.

Words of wisdom from the late David Weis … ‘Prove it’.

If this is the next leg higher, FXI must first penetrate the March 30th, high of 33.62, then penetrate the March 29th high of 33.73.

Using that requirement (of higher highs), the plan is to partial exit YANG if/when FXI penetrates the 33.62 high and full exit at penetration of FXI: 33.73 (not advice not a recommendation).

Summary

With each price action move, FXI is successively removing the probability of repeating the same action(s).

We had a short-covering gap higher during the week of March 18th. That massive volume move is not likely to be repeated.

We now have what may be a ‘gut-check’ move testing current highs. This move would also join the ranks of price action that’s not likely to be repeated.

If FXI, is unable to move higher from this juncture, it weights the probability even more to the downside.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

BABA … Bull or Bear ?

The Level(s) To Watch

On one hand, BABA, has launched more than 60%, off its most recent lows.

On the other hand, that launch posted the highest daily, weekly monthly, and (about to be) quarterly volume, ever.

Markets tend to come back and test wide bar, high volume areas. Just that probability alone, coupled with the unprecedented volume behavior on four timeframes, points it to the bear side.

Shorting China FXI, via YANG, discussed yesterday (not advice, not a recommendation), is essentially a BABA short as that equity is weighted more than 10%, in the FXI.

So, let’s take a look at what BABA, is saying about itself.

BABA, Weekly Chart

The massive weekly volume highlighted below.

Next, we have a not-so good-looking picture (for the bulls).

BABA may be posting a long-term Head & Shoulders top.

Next, is the daily with its largest volume ever as well.

Getting closer-in on the daily, there are support levels to watch.

At this juncture, early in this session, we’re at support now. Breaking down puts the next, less defined support into play.

Positioning

The last post, showed what was then current positioning in FXI leveraged short vehicle, YANG (not advice, not a recommendation).

During the session yesterday, the YANG position was increased substantially. Essentially, the low-risk opportunity was used to its fullest advantage.

This method of trading goes way back to Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb

Livermore:

Focus on the big picture and strategy. Look for the (potential) big move.

Wyckoff:

Use what the market is saying about itself to find the danger point. The point of least risk.

Loeb:

Real market opportunities are rare. When one is found, it must be used to its fullest extent.

Do NOT diversify. Focus positions and time the market.

Summary

As always, anything can happen.

BABA is currently at one of its support levels and holding for now … bulls still have a chance.

Obviously, the active trade, YANG-22-01, is taking the bearish stance. The plan is to have a tight, in-the-green stop, soon (possibly today’s low).

As this post stated at the outset, we’ve got all time high volume on four timeframes: Nearly a bearish case in itself.

The high-volume area may be tested.

That means BABA (and FXI) price action would need to move lower to perform that test.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

China, FXI, YINN & YANG

Reposition The Short

‘Once stopped out, the amateur never comes back.’

That’s the assessment from Dr. Alexander Elder, years ago.

The amateur thinks he has special analysis powers and has to be correct on the trade immediately.

On the other, hand, the professional may attempt up to three entries (or more) to get the position they want.

So, it is with Emerging Markets (EEM) and the correlated trade, China (FXI).

Yesterday’s jump higher in both the EEM, and FXI, did not invalidate the work already done, linked here.

Instead, that move told us where to look.

As shown below, the FXI had the least net upward movement. The percentage gains have reduced substantially

FXI, Daily Chart

Using that information, FXI appears at, or near the end of its short squeeze move.

The Emerging Markets trade (once stopped out) was re-positioned to be short the FIX via YANG (not advice, not a recommendation).

YANG, Daily Chart

Upon initial glance, it appears to be a lot of (short) positioning activity. That may be true for now.

However, the objective is to identify a sustainable move (before it’s obvious) and then continue to build on the trade.

Summary

Note how there’s a huge downward slash in YANG, that corresponds to the sharp short squeeze move in FXI.

From a risk standpoint, one way to look at this event, it’s not likely to happen exactly this way again (rule of alternation).

We’re about 20-minutes before the open.

YANG, is trading higher in the pre-market by + 0.25-pts, or about + 1.61%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279