On a weekly closing basis (as we’ll see below), it’s obvious.
Upward (net) progress in biotech SPBIO, has come to a standstill.
While the media continues to foment the lie that somehow interest rates have reached their limit, or ‘Da Fed’, is going to do this or that, behind the scenes the plan … set out years ago, continues to unfold.
Before we get to the charts, let’s not forget what’s happening ‘out there‘. The number of idiots seems to be increasing without bound.
As Goethe said way back in 1826, ‘There is nothing more frightful than ignorance in action’. He was being polite with the ‘ignorance’ part.
Now, on to the charts.
The un-marked, chart of biotech SPBIO, is below.
The second chart zooms-in, showing the percentage changes on a closing basis.
Biotech SPBIO, Weekly
Zoom in, showing net progress.
One would think, since biotech has dropped so significantly, there’s no more (downside) left.
Certainly, anything can happen.
However, the premise is, the overall collapse is still in the early stages.
We have not (yet) had a 50% – 90%, drop in the S&P.
In addition, pension funds are likely to go broke.
So all those $250,000/year ‘retired’ lifeguards that J.B. has spoken about? Well, how do you leverage that ‘skill’ to another industry?
Next up, the inverted chart of SPBIO, to mimic the action seen in leveraged inverse, LABD.
Then after that, is the same chart marked with a potential forecast of where price action may be heading (not advice, not a recommendation).
Now, the markup showing potential action should biotech continue its decline.
Zooming in on the last few weeks of action.
The fact price action has bounced from this area of the chart, tells us the trading range is valid; the blue line is being recognized by the market.
Now as shown, we’ve come to a halt.
So, what happens next?
As SPBIO ground its way higher (LABD lower) over the past week, the short position, LABD-22-02, was reduced further but not eliminated (not advice, not a recommendation).
Since there’s no more net progress upward and we’re still in an overall downtrend, expectations are for biotech to either stall, or reverse, continuing its trend lower.
As stated previously in this post, the market’s prior congestion was ‘complex’.
So, we’re expecting ‘simple’ this time around; all of which lends support to more downside.
For what seems the longest time, a recurring focus of this site has been the biotech sector.
Specifically, the IBB (ETF) and SPBIO (Index).
There’s good reason for that. In this update, we’ll go deeper into the downside opportunity.
SPBIO, topped out on February 9th this year. The IBB (ETF) topped one day later.
Both went on to form a Quarterly reversal bar; indicating a long term change in character.
Of the two, SPBIO has showed more weakness having posted monthly lower lows for three successive months.
That relative weakness over the IBB index, has resulted in focusing on the inverse of SPBIO; specifically the 3X inverse, LABD.
Working with leveraged inverse funds is only profitable on a short-term basis or when the underlying index is in a persistent down-trend.
Otherwise, typical market chop results in value erosion of the inverse fund (not advice, not a recommendation).
For the reasons discussed in the last section below (Nuremburg 2.0), we’re anticipating the index to have a sustained and persistent drop to much lower levels.
Going way back to Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and the Wyckoff Stock Market Institute training materials, both in their own way indicated a speculative position was only entered if there was sufficient potential.
Livermore’s 10-points or more and Wyckoff’s cause and effect
In Wyckoff’s case, the ’cause’ was price action congestion built up in the P&F chart.
The ‘effect’ was the resulting move.
Which brings us to now:
Many times on this site, we’ve said biotech has built up congestion in a way, when it reverses and begins its decline, price action itself will create lower targets.
We’ll present two charts showing how that’s happening.
The first P&F chart in this update and provided below, has a projected downside target for IBB around, 116 – 120 area:
Note, the downside is not to scale as the real location is far below the noted area.
Biotech IBB, then went on to post lower action. That in turn has resulted in an updated downside target:
Once again, the downside is not to scale.
It’s apparent, as IBB heads lower, it successively builds lower targets and it’s only (potentially) just getting started.
The weekly chart of IBB below, spells it out:
If and when IBB price action gets to the initial targets, it enters a congestion area that will (by that time) be over seven years wide.
If the trend is still down, that congestion in turn would target even lower levels.
The “-80%” interestingly enough, comes from a quote by Steven Van Metre at this link.
That 80% drop also corresponds to a downside Fibonacci (not shown) projection of 423.6%, on the above chart.
This phrase has become so ubiquitous you can do a search for it.
So far, not a single mainstream financial site or YouTuber (still on that platform) has mentioned this fact in their analysis.
The speck injections are mass genocide and intended as such.
Two recent events resulting from injections are here and here.
If all of a sudden, injected pilots can’t fly (the first link), how are goods going to be transported?
Not generally known to the public, commercial air-transport is also used to haul freight (while carrying passengers).
Exactly how all of this (world crime) will break is unknown.
If and when it does, the result in the biotech sector as well as equities in general, could be successive air-pockets all the way down.
Not sure the purpose for the lie … just that it’s a lie.
As a wild engineering guess:
To have such an ‘aircraft’ operate on Mars, the rotor blades would need to be a half-mile long, fifteen feet in width and be weightless themselves; spinning at 600 – 1000 PRM, to be able to lift a 4-lb payload.
Let’s see if anyone has the cajones to do the real math on this one.
Current parallels to The Great Depression can not be refuted.
Benign (25% unemployment) history book accounts are lies.
No surprise there.
One excellent source for what’s likely to happen next; Neil McCoy-Ward and his latest update.
Some comments from the linked livestream posted below:
This is a typical excuse (it’s not 1931) or complaint from those who do not have the neural plasticity to take yesterday’s data and adapt it to the current scenario.
These types of people are not likely to survive
Yes, the medical community (with few exceptions) has been bought.
If you’re unemployed, starving to death, you’ll be a ready face-diaper wearing compliant subject; easily coerced into being injected (executed).
Obviously, the goal is to be as independent, self-employed as possible so we’re not that person.
Which brings us to the culprit du jour: Biotech.
Yesterday, the expectation was for a reversal and test (that day) before SPBIO continued its downward trajectory (LABD higher).
It looks like the test is lasting two days (maybe more) instead of one.
Inverse fund, LABD is currently trading near 24.15. That’s right in the vicinity of the expected range between 23.90 – 24.30, stated yesterday.
LABD did push a little bit lower in the early session to 23.68, but still within expected range.
LABD is testing the right side channel line and trying its best to break through. Thus far, the low for the day remains at 23.68.
If there’s an upward (LABD) reversal from here, a Fibonacci Day 8, from the original Day 55 low, it would give more confirmation we’re at least following the trendline; potentially at the very right side of a huge trading range.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.