Trend & Channel

Who’s taking the bull side on gold?

If we use the just released ZeroHedge articles listed below, the inference is the average investor’s on the bull side:

Investors overweight in stocks

Gold probes multi-month highs

Futures flat amid inflation jitters

Especially notable in the ‘Gold probes’ article is the statement, gold pushed above ‘key price resistance’.

That key resistance was first identified in this post as the target for potential major reversal.

This Is Now

So, here we are.

Gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ, have pushed above resistance levels. The bull/bear fight is on.

At this point, it’s not known who’s ultimately in control.

A retrace to breakout support for gold (GLD, GDX, GDXJ) is normal under either circumstance … bullish or bearish.

What happens at that support is the deciding factor. A bounce and continuation upward, the bulls are in charge.

A bounce, then failure, nods it to the bears.

That’s why we’re at The Danger Point.

It’s the location where price action hesitates. It’s unsure and can go either way.

The weekly chart (below) of GDX, is marked up with a modest sloping down-channel … declining approximately -26%, annualized:

From left to right, that right side contact’s been in the making for over a year.

Even worse (for the bulls) is the next chart:

Note the right side channel is an estimate and has not been confirmed with additional contact points.

We’ll zoom in on the possible new channel:

Price action made several contacts with the grey centerline and the entire channel structure looks symmetrical.

‘Transitory’ & The Elephant

The reason (supply chain) inflation may be transitory is that demand is going to collapse.

It’s already happening.

Now, that news is just starting to hit the mainstream.

They pretend like they’re not sure what’s it’s all about. So, let’s help them out with some facts.

Embedded within the article at this link, is an actual list of ‘strange anomalies’ that are occurring amongst the most athletically conditioned in the world.

If it’s happening with the athletes, it’s happening in the rest of the population.

Summary:

Early this session, Gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ have, or are testing their highs with inverse funds DUST and JDST testing the lows.

If this is a major transition from up to down for gold and the miners, this type of back and forth is normal.

Positions:

We’re still at the danger point but action can’t stay at these levels for too long. If it does, that would imply the bulls are gaining control and going to move the market to much higher levels.

Obviously, since we’re short (not advice, not a recommendation) via DUST, we’re on the other side of the gold bull trade.

A reasonable stop for DUST would be at, near, or just below yesterday’s low of 16.72 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post, with DUST currently trading at DUST, 17.11, my firm’s position is down a modest – 1.82%.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279