Struggling to Break Out of Wipeout

It’s still early in the session and it looks like real estate’s in serious trouble.

A change of events putting IYR declining at – 99%, annualized.

Several charts of real estate IYR, are presented below; not the least of which is the location of the first ‘DRV’ (3X inverse, IYR), entry.

Strategy, Tactics and Focus are the three tenets laid out by Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb respectively.

Strategy: The real estate sector is ‘finished’ for this bubble go-round. Look for significant medium to long term trading (position) opportunities.

Tactics: Use Wyckoff analysis to identify the exact location where risk is least; The Danger Point

Focus: Significant trading opportunities are rare. When one is found, it must be used to its fullest extent.

This site presents the method above, in real-time.

The first chart of IYR shows the location of the initial DRV entry (not advice, not a recommendation).

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Positioning short this sector has been fully documented here and here.

As a result of yesterday’s action, also anticipated and documented here, the sector may have pivoted into a sharper trend; a trend declining at – 99%, annualized.

Is that a hyperbolic statement? Not if it happens.

As this post is being created, we’re going to look at the hourly chart of IYR (below) and show that price action is struggling to stay away from that -99%, trendline.

IYR: Hourly Chart

We’re at the top of the hour (11:00 a.m., EST) and the hourly candle may have just confirmed the new trend.

Summary

As said many times on this site, when or if, a major break occurs, there will be no getting in or out (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this juncture, now fifteen minutes past the top of the hour, price action is still struggling.

If it continues lower, does not break the trendline and prints below last week’s low of 92.89, it’s a serious event; more confirmation of the new down-trend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

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