Is the objective to create as many news stories (fake or not), along with incessant and contradicting market analysis with the objective: Shut down and distract even the most disciplined trading professional?
The market’s going up, it’s going to crash, it’s in a short squeeze, Goldman ‘says’, then ‘says not’ and on it goes.
If memory serves, the propaganda during the 2007 – 2008 meltdown, wasn’t nearly this bad. Of course, that was before the Smith-Mundt act was repealed … but I, digress.
There are even a few unfortunate dolts that don’t’ even know anything’s happening at all.
Take a look at Dan’s (i-Allegedly) latest video here.
He talks about the number of people contacting him to say ‘it’s not that bad’, or ‘real estate’s going much higher’, or ‘whatever’ as Dan likes to say.
He does present from the (ethical) sales professionals a recognition, real estate’s ‘finished’ for this go-round.
Even while we get reports like this one, where sentiment is so bad, a rally is imminent, the trading objective must be to remain focused on the data … price bars and volume.
That’s what we’re going to do as outlined below.
Real Estate IYR, Daily Chart
The un-marked chart.
Now, let’s get to the ‘force’ behind the rebound of the past four trading days.
The tiny blip circled, was all there was for upward energy from yesterday’s move.
Price action inched up just over 1%.
Looking at the situation from a trading channel standpoint, we see yesterday’s action got just outside the well-established trend lines.
So, we have a little ‘blip’ outside the trendline on minimal volume and force.
The news story linked above (repeated here) says a ‘short squeeze’ is imminent … at least for the tech stocks.
What about the rest of the market? Is real estate going to breakout as well?
That actual (IYR) data says, anything can happen; however, with such anemic upside performance, the expectation is for IYR, to resume its downward trend.
It’s about forty-minutes before the open and we already have DRV, pre-market activity.
Because the (bid/ask) spreads are so wide in both IYR inverse funds SRS, and DRV, pre-market activity is rare.
Nonetheless, 3X inverse DRV, is trading higher at +0.79 points or +1.71%, indicating that IYR will have a lower open.
That means, the DRV low of yesterday (DRV 45.64) would make a good stop location for any positioning (not advice, not a recommendation).
Wyckoff analysis is independent of the news or the financials. He discovered as early as 1902, that prices are moving from a ‘force of their own’ having nothing to do with fundamentals.
The action itself will point to the next likely outcome.
Real estate’s in the … well, it’s in the outhouse; we’ll leave it at that.
Today was the day where IYR had the opportunity to build on any momentum gained over the last two trading sessions (Thursday, Friday).
Today, the index posted a new daily high within about fifteen minutes after the open.
Then, it spent the rest of the day trying to move higher.
Additional new highs weren’t happening; about a half-hour before the close, price action began to fall away.
That’s where we are now.
IYR Daily Close
The next chart makes the situation more clear.
There’s a Head & Shoulders top, a neckline, break of the neckline, test and reverse.
The fundamental pressures continue to build.
Interest rates remain elevated but even if they come down, it’s already in the works; buyers don’t qualify, layoffs are starting in earnest and it’s all unraveling … very, very fast.
This very same scenario has been played out in history; over and over, bubble after bubble.
We’re now in a multi-year, to multi-decade decline (if it ever recovers).
The chart above shows a measured move target in the area of 83.5, for IYR, providing that price action continues its decline.
The chart in the prior post, had a Fibonacci projection to the 80.5 area. So, the targets are similar.
Actually, this is what we want.
If we can use different analysis methods to come up with essentially the same target, it increases the probability of meeting that target (not advice, not a recommendation).
The DRV position remains active; DRV-22-02.
If IYR posts a new daily high at tomorrow’s session, it points probabilities to either a protracted choppy test, or a rebound to higher levels; if either of those scenarios take place, the position will likely be exited.
Yet another indicator of the current strange weather (warfare) that’s going to strain the system.
Here’s the link to the very first post that specifically referenced Genesis 41; posted on December 31, 2020.
As with the ‘Mask on, Mask off (linked above), how has the post aged?
Is it still relevant?
What about this quote … seemed extreme at the time.
They paid for the corn first, with gold and silver. Then they paid with their livestock. Then they paid by selling themselves into life-long slavery. We can equate that last part (slavery) as getting the vax.
Chess Board Strategy
It’s a bitter pill to realize we’re in the long game. ‘Normal’, is not coming back … ever.
That does not mean there’re no opportunities. There are.
Those opportunities (if we survive) are/will be potentially life changing for the good.
The Sunday futures market opened about two hours ago and we’re up around +0.40%, in the S&P.
Let’s see if that spills over to the Monday open; remembering that we’re short the real estate sector with the finger on the sell trigger (not advice, not a recommendation).