The ‘Pivot’, No One Expects

Happy days are here, again!

So, the Fed can pivot, and the bull’s on again.

At least, that’s what the media wants us to believe. The CPI is out, and ‘inflation’ has slowed.

The problem is, as Michael Cowan stated in this update (he’s done the work), from here, it does not matter what the Fed does.

The decline (crash) or whatever you want to call it, is baked in the cake.

Once deflationary forces start, it becomes a juggernaut.

The previous update on gold (GLD) showed in multiple time frames, upward thrust energy is dissipating; in at least one case, (weekly) it’s also divergent.

Now that we’ve had yet another blip higher, as expected, it’s rabid bullishness in the gold camp.

So, let’s look at what GLD, is actually doing. What does the market say about itself?

Gold (GLD), Daily

One thing is for sure; GLD, is at The Danger Point®

If GLD can’t hold above (and move above) this level, it may be in serious trouble.

Let’s look at it a different way … the terminating wedge.

A ‘wedge’ is typically the last pattern in a move up or down, hence the name.

As this post is being created (12:23 p.m., EST), GLD continues to decline from its open; currently sitting right at the resistance (potential support) level at the 168-area.

In a separate market, biotech SPBIO, has completely reversed its opening spike and is now posting lower.

We’re still maintaining the LABD-22-14 trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s CPI print and resulting price action, may be the kick-off to an overall sustained and persistent decline.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279